摘要
利用求预报场与实况场绝对误差和相关系数 ,对ECMWF资料进行预报精度检验 ,结果表明 :5 0 0hPa高度 ,85 0hPa温度和相对湿度 ,海平面气压等 4个物理量场预报较好 ;85 0hPa相对湿度预报比 70 0hPa的误差小 ;东西风预报比南北风预报好 ;绝对误差值随预报时效延长而增大 ,相关系数则随预报时效延长而减小。
Utilizing the absolute errors and the correlate coefficients of forecast field and actuality field, we verify the forecast precision of the ECMWF products. Results show that the four physical quantities including the height in 500hPa, temperature, relative humidity in 850hPa and the sea-level pressure can provide precise information; the forecast error of relative humidity in 850hPa is less than that of 700hPa; the forecasts of east and west winds are more exact than those of the south and north winds; absolute error is a direct dependence upon period validity while correlate coefficient is an inverse measure of it.
出处
《河南气象》
2004年第3期14-15,共2页
Meteorology Journal of Henan
关键词
预报场
实况场
绝对误差
精度检验
数值预报
NWP
Precision verification
Absolute errors
Correlate coefficient
