摘要
对近几十年来兴起的动力气候模式作了全面的介绍和分析,指出气候系统是一类浑沌动力系统,具有对参数和初值的极其敏感性、内在随机性,以及自相似性等。Lorenz最先发现气候系统中的浑沌性质,之后Saltzman建立一系列简单的海洋、大气、海冰耦合的动力气候模式,通过对这些模式的试验研究,揭示了气候随太阳辐射、二氧化碳、气溶胶等参数的变化规律及其浑沌动力学性质。这些性质都表现在各种气候因子的时间序列中,为此,人们开始从时间序列中提取动力系统的演变信息,如计算分维数、Lyapunov指数以及建立相空间预报模式等。本文就上述问题的研究进展进行了全面的综述并作了展望。
After Lorenz discoverd chaos - deterministic nonperiodic flow in a simplified climate model, the chaotic climatology have gradually been developing and forming in recent decades. The objects of this study are all kinds of complicated nonliner dynamic behaviors of climate system such as stability , sensitivity , fractal structures, strange attractors and chaos.
The contents of this discipline include: revealing the structure of climate system; dignosing the dynamic loops and functions; developing the climate models; analysing the predictable extension of climate change and establishing the new theorys.
In this paper, many recent researches and dynamic models were reported and emerged, which shows us the present research conditions and advances of the chaotic climatology.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
1993年第4期1-10,共10页
Advances in Earth Science
关键词
浑沌
气候学
奇异吸引子
chaotic climatology, dynamic climate model, strang attractor
