摘要
2012年6月2日云南中部、南部出现一次强降水降温过程,玉溪市日降水量超过25 mm共有77站,大于50 mm站点15站,全市均出现大雨以上降水,最大日降水量出现在元江青龙厂,其雨量是123.5 mm,但预报员经验外推和欧洲中心等数值预报均未能预报出此次过程.利用常规资料、雷达、卫星云图、NCEP资料深入剖析此次强降水过程的成因和漏报的原因.分析发现,暴雨区上空湿度层结不同,云南西南部低层湿度大、高层湿度小,具有上干下湿的结构特征,有利于出现雷雨等强对流天气,而昆明则整层湿度大;切变、静止锋南下和西南暖湿气流共同影响,冷、暖气流交汇,触发了这次强降水.高空探测实况场上切变线南压形势不明显,对wRF中尺度模式最新时效的弱降温数值预报重视不够,过于依赖数值预报产品,是此次强降水过程漏报的直接原因.‘
A strong precipitation and cooling process happened at central and south of Yunnan on 2nd June,2012.There were 77 stations daily precipitation over 25 mm and 15 stations daily precipitation greater than 50 mm in Yuxi city.The precipitation above heavy rain appeared in whole city,biggest daily precipitation which was123.5 mm,happened at Yuanjiang Qinlong factory among them.But forecaster' s empirical extrapolation and EC numerical forecast products had not forecasted this process.Based on reanalysis data,radar data satellite images and NCEP data,this strong precipitation process had been diagnosed and analyzed,missing report was investigated as well.The results showed that Humidity vertical distribution was different in the rainstorm area.The vertical distribution feature was high humidity was at low layer and low humidity was at higher layer,which was beneficial to thunderstorm and other severe convective weather.Humidity in Kunming was high all of the level.The sheer line and cold air moved southward suddenly,so confluence of cold and warm air happened.The cold air triggered strong mesoscale convective system which brought about this strong rainfall.The results which caused missing forecast included the situation of the sheer line moving southward was not obvious on upper air chart,the newest aging numerical forecast products of model WRF had not been paid attention to enough and numerical forecast products were depended on too much.
出处
《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第S1期202-208,218,共8页
Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY-056)
关键词
强降水
数值预报
预报偏差
云南
strong precipitation
NWF
forecast error
Yunnan
