摘要
Bayes方法是统计学决策方法的基础之一,通过采样,修改先验的概率分布,从而减少了参数的不确定性。本文针对港工中实际试桩少,难以对单桩承载力作出准确统计的问题,用Bayes方法进行了计算,并考虑了主观不定性对抗力的影响,较好地解决了实际问题。
The Bayes method is one of the basis of statistical decision methods. Through sampling, a prior distribution can be modified, hence the uncertainty of a parameter can be reduced. In harbor engineering, the numbers of the actual trial piles is nuall. It is difficult to obtain the exact estimation of Load-bearing capacity parameter for a single pile. In this paper, the Bayes method is applied considering the influence of subjective uncertainty on the load-bearing capacity as result is considered. The example given in this pap3r shows that the method is very useful in practice.
出处
《工程力学》
EI
CSCD
1993年第4期62-70,共9页
Engineering Mechanics
关键词
贝叶斯方法
主观不定性
可靠度
Bayes method, subjective uncertainty, reliability
