摘要
A neuroid BP-type three-layer mapping model is used for monthly rainfall forecasting in terms of 1946-1985Naming monthly precipitation records as basic sequences and the model has the form i×j=8×3, K=1; by steadilymodifying the weighing coefficient, long-range monthly forecasts for January to December, 1986 are constructed and1986 month-to-month predictions are made based on, say, the January measurement for February rainfall and soon, with mean absolute error reaching 6,07 and 5,73 mm, respectively. Also, with a different monthly initial value forJune through September, 1994, neuroid forecasting is done,indicating the same result of the drought in Naming during the summer, an outcome that is in sharp agreement with the observation.
A neuroid BP-type three-layer mapping model is used for monthly rainfall forecasting in terms of 1946-1985Naming monthly precipitation records as basic sequences and the model has the form i×j=8×3, K=1; by steadilymodifying the weighing coefficient, long-range monthly forecasts for January to December, 1986 are constructed and1986 month-to-month predictions are made based on, say, the January measurement for February rainfall and soon, with mean absolute error reaching 6,07 and 5,73 mm, respectively. Also, with a different monthly initial value forJune through September, 1994, neuroid forecasting is done,indicating the same result of the drought in Naming during the summer, an outcome that is in sharp agreement with the observation.
