期刊文献+

光流法对2011年“梅花”台风期间500hPa高度场预报的检验释用

Verification and Application for 500hPa Height Forecasts During the Period of Typhoon MUIFA(1109) Using the Optical Flow Technique
下载PDF
导出
摘要 利用光流技术,对2011年台风“梅花”期间ECMWF(简称EC)和T639两个数值天气预报模式的500hPa高度场预报进行了检验和释用。结果发现,EC的24、48和72h预报具有稳定的误差。EC的24h预报强度误差比观测低2~9gpm,角度误差在180°和240°之间(极坐标系),也就是西到西南向;EC的48h预报强度误差比观测低8~18gpm,角度误差同样在180°和240°之间。EC的72h预报强度误差比观测低-25~26gpm,角度误差在170°和290°之间。作为比较,T639的预报强度和预报角度误差则没有那么稳定。对预报位移误差而言,EC和T639的预报误差都比较稳定。利用基于光流技术的数值预报释用方法,将24h的预报误差用来订正48h的预报,结果表明,订正预报场比预报场本身更近似于观测场。 Using the optical lfow technique, 500hPa height forecasts of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models ECMWF (EC for short) and T639 during the period of Typhoon MUIFA(1109) are veriifed and interpreted. The results show that EC has stable errors in 24h, 48h and 72h forecasts. Its 24h forecast intensities are 2-9gpm lower than observations, and angular errors are between 180° and 240°, which are between west and southwest. Its 48h forecast intensities are 8-18gpm lower than observations, and angular errors are also between 180° and 240°. Its 72h forecast intensities are mainly-25 to 26gpm lower than observations, and angular errors are mainly between 170° and 290°. By contrast, the intensity and angular errors of T639 are not so stable. As for displacement errors, the performances of EC and T639 are both stable. The similar disparities between observation ifelds and 24h, 48h and 72h forecast ifelds of the two models also show that EC has better forecasting performances than T639. Finally, an application technique is used to correct the 48h forecast ifelds according to the 24h forecasts errors. The results show that when the distortion errors of 24h forecasts obtained from the optical lfow ifeld are used to correct the 48h forecasts, the correction ifelds are more similar to the observation ifelds than the forecast ifelds themselves.
机构地区 上海海洋气象台
出处 《气象科技进展》 2013年第5期41-47,共7页 Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
基金 上海市气象局面上项目(MS201211) 中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2013-023)
关键词 光流技术 台风“梅花” 检验释用 位势高度 optical flow technique MUIFA verification and application geopotential height
  • 相关文献

参考文献12

  • 1Barron J L,Fleet D J,Beauchemin S S. Performance of optical flow technique[J].{H}International Journal of Computer Vision,1994,(01):43-77. 被引量:1
  • 2Camus T. Real-time quantized optical flow[J].{H}REAL-TIME IMAGING,1997.71-86. 被引量:1
  • 3Hwang S H,Lee U K. A hierarchical optical flow estimation algorithm based on the interlevel motion smoothness constraint[J].{H}Pattern Recognition,1993.939-952. 被引量:1
  • 4Kearney J K,hTompson W B,Boley D L. Optical flow estimation:An Error Analysis of Gradient-Based Methods with Local Optimization[J].{H}IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence,1987.229-244. 被引量:1
  • 5McCane B,Novins K,Crannitch D. On benchmarking optical flow[J].{H}COMPUTER VISION AND IMAGE UNDERSTANDING,2001.126-143. 被引量:1
  • 6Weber J,Malik J. Robust computation of optical flow in a multi-scale differential framework[J].{H}International Journal of Computer Vision,1995.67-81. 被引量:1
  • 7韩雷,王洪庆,林隐静.光流法在强对流天气临近预报中的应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2008,44(5):751-755. 被引量:42
  • 8Marzban C,Sandgathe S,Lyons H. hTree Spatial Verification Techniques:Cluster Analysis,Variogram,and Optical Flow[J].{H}WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2009.1457-1471. 被引量:1
  • 9Marzban C,Sandgathe S. Optical Flow for Verification[J].{H}WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2010.1479-1494. 被引量:1
  • 10Horn B K P,Schunck B G. Determining Optical Flow[J].{H}Artificial Intelligence,1981.185-203. 被引量:1

二级参考文献13

  • 1韩雷,王洪庆,谭晓光,林隐静.基于雷达数据的风暴体识别、追踪及预警的研究进展[J].气象,2007,33(1):3-10. 被引量:42
  • 2王华,孙继松,李津.2005年北京城区两次强冰雹天气的对比分析[J].气象,2007,33(2):49-56. 被引量:70
  • 3Wilson J W, Crook N A, Mueller C K, et al. Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 1998, 79:2079-2099 被引量:1
  • 4Rinehart R E, Garvey E T. Three-dimensional storm motion detection by conventional weather radar. Nature, 1978, 273 : 287-289 被引量:1
  • 5Crane R K. Automatic cell detection and tracking. IEEE Trans Geosci Electron, 1979, GE-17:250-262 被引量:1
  • 6Dixon M, Wiener G. TITAN: Thunderstorm identification, tracking, analysis, and nowcasting--A radar-based methodology. J Atmos Oceanic Technol, 1993, 10: 785- 797 被引量:1
  • 7Johnson J T, MacKeen P L, Witt A, et al. The Storm Cell Identification and Tracking algorithm: An enhanced WSR- 88D algorithm. Weather and Forecasting, 1998, 13 : 263- 276 被引量:1
  • 8Evans J E, Ducot E R. The integrated terminal weather system. Lincoln Lab J, 1994, 7:449-474 被引量:1
  • 9Mueller C K, Saxen T, Roberts R D, et al. NCAR Autonowcast system. Weather and Forecasting, 2003, 18: 545- 561 被引量:1
  • 10Golding B W. Nimrod: A system for generating automated very short range forecasts. Meteor Appl, 1998, 5:1-16 被引量:1

共引文献41

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部