摘要
轨道交通一方面能够促进经济社会发展,改善投资环境,提高市民生活质量,缓解交通拥挤,但同时也需要大量的建造、运行、维护费用,到目前为止只有香港、大阪等少数几个地区能够回收运营成本。在这种情况下有必要针对轨道交通沿线居民的通勤出行,了解居民出行方式的机制,以便有关单位或机构采取相应的措施提高轨道交通的乘坐率。文中根据非集计建模的流程,以实际调查数据为基础,建立了多项Logit模型,并对其进行了相关的参数检验和解释。为了减小影响因素相关性带来的交互作用,采用了主成分分析法对变量进行筛选,通过模型参数检验的同时,模型检验中的命中率有所提高。
Rail transit can promote economic and social development,improve investment environment,enhance public life quality and relieve traffic congestion.However,it also requires huge costs on construction,operation and maintenance.So far only in Hong Kong,Osaka and a few other regions,can operating costs be recovered.Accordingly,it is necessary to analyze the commuting of the residents living along rails to know their traveling mechanism.Based on Disaggregate Modeling Process and the survey data,the paper establishes a multinomial Logit model and inspects and explains the relevant parameters.In order to reduce the interaction caused by the impact of the variables'correlation,the paper uses Principal Component Analysis Method to choose them.With parametric testing,the model's hit rate has been increased.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2013年第3期74-78,共5页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
关键词
交通方式划分
轨道交通
非集计模型
主成分分析
灵敏度分析
traffic modal split
rail transit
disaggregated model
Principal Component Analysis
sensitivity analysis
