摘要
中国政府在2009年,对外承诺2020年碳强度比2005年下降40%—45%。为此利用改进后的Kaya公式对我国1985—2010年碳排放因素进行分解,考察信贷资本对碳排放的贡献度,并对我国2020年的经济总量、信贷总量以及碳排放总量进行预测,得出2020年我国碳排放强度至少比2005年降低47.75%的结论。
In 2009,China's government has promised that the carbon intensity of 2020 decrease by 40%—45%.Our study uses the improved Kaya formula to analyze the 1985-2010 carbon emission factors and get the credit capital contribution of carbon emission,and use the Grey Forecasting Model to forecast the country's total economic output and the quantity of credit as well as carbon emissions in 2020,finally,we conclnde that by 2010 the amount of carbon emission at least will be reduced to 47.75% compared with that of 2005.
出处
《审计与经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期91-98,共8页
Journal of Audit & Economics
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目(12D106)
关键词
年减排承诺目标
信贷配给
碳排放强度
环境经济
碳减排目标
碳排放测度
环境金融
2020 emission reduction commitment target
credit rationing mechanism
carbon emission density
environment economy
carbon reduction commitment
carbon emission measurement
enviromental finance
