摘要
货币供应量是我国货币政策的中介目标,目前我国货币供应量调控成本巨大,调控目标越来越难以实现,一些经济学家提出扩大货币统计口径的范围,给出了M3、M4等货币供应量指标,以引起货币当局对全社会资金的重视。与此同时,我国国库库存余额逐年加大,季节性波动明显,国库库存变动对与货币供应量和宏观经济的影响越来越大,在货币政策操作中需要密切关注国库库存的运行变化。本文首先描述了我国国库库存与货币供应量的特征,并分析了两者关系;接着探讨了将国库库存纳入货币统计口径的理论依据;然后利用近十年的数据检验将国库库存纳入货币统计口径后的实际效应;最后得出:货币当局将国库库存变量纳入中介目标监控体系,将有助于提高货币政策的有效性,并在结论的基础上给出相应的政策建议。
Money supply is intermediate target of monetary policy in our country.The cost of money supply regulation is huge at present.It’s more and more difficult to achieve objectives of money supply regulation.Some economists have proposed that the Measure of money supply need expanding to M3 or M4,in order to make the monetary authorities pay attention to the whole society capital.At the same time,China’s treasury stock is increasing year after year,and the seasonal fluctuation is obviously.The impact of treasury stock to monetary supply and macro economic is more important.So we need to pay close attention to the operation of treasury stock in the operation of monetary policy.This paper describes characteristics of China’s treasury stock and currency supply in first,analyzes the relationship between them.The next discusses the feasibility of taking the treasury stock into monetary statistics theoretically,and then to inspect it by the data of nearly ten years.At last it is concluded that,taking the treasury stock variable into the intermediary target monitoring system is used to improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.And we also give other policy recommendations.
出处
《浙江金融》
北大核心
2012年第1期13-17,24,共6页
Zhejiang Finance
