摘要
近年来,江苏省经济持续快速发展,尤其是对外贸易增速全国领先。江苏省对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。本文根据主流研究理论,利用江苏省1985-2004年统计数据,运用回归分析、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法对江苏对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果发现经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,进出口都是经济增长的原因。各级政府继续重视进出口、消费、投资与经济增长的协调关系,有益于江苏经济实现稳定的可持续发展。
In recent years, Jiangsu province has witnessed a sustained fast economic development, particularly in the area of foreign trade, its increasing rate being the foremost in China. In fact, the growth in foreign trade has given a powerful impetus to the economic development of the province. Based on the statistics of Jiangsu province during 1985—2004, and by using recursive least square estimation, co-integration estimation, Granger causality test and so on, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. The result shows that from the long-term perspective, there exists in Jiangsu province a long and stable relationship between economic growth and export, import, consumption and investment. Both export and import contribute to the economic growth. If governments at all levels continue to attach importance to the coordination relationship between export, import, consumption, investment and economic growth, sustainable economic growth in Jiangsu will be ensured.
出处
《上海商学院学报》
2006年第2期6-11,共6页
Business Economic Review
关键词
对外贸易
经济增长
协整分析
foreign trade, economic growth, co-integration analysis
