摘要
Based on the changing law of municipal water demand,a trigonometric function model for short-term water demand forecast is established using the time-series analysis approach.The method for forecasting water demand during holidays and under unexpected events is also presented.Meanwhile,a computer software is developed.Through actual application,this method performs well and has high accuracy,so it can be applied to the daily operation of a water distribution system and lay a foundation for on-line optimal operation.
根据城市用水负荷的变化规律 ,采用时间序列分析法 ,建立了用水短期负荷预测的三角函数模型 ,并给出了节假日负荷及突发事件负荷的预测方法 ,同时 ,在微机上开发了软件 .通过实例计算 ,效果良好 ,精度较高 ,可应用于供水输配系统日常的生产调度 。
基金
Natural Science Foundation of China!(No.598780 30 )
