摘要
以LESLIE矩阵构建人口的动力学方程 ,建立了 2 0世纪 80年代以来中国人口的数学模型 ,并用人口普查的数据验证了该模型的有效性及所含假设的合理性。利用该模型可推算 1982年至 1998年的逐年的以岁为单位的年龄构成。通过调整模型中有关参数及输入的条件 ,定量地分析了“夫妻双方均为独生子女可生两胎”这一政策将在未来 15年内对我国人口的影响。所建模型有很好的移植性 ,理论上来讲可推测很长一段时期内任一年的年龄结构 ,并可通过调整参量定量分析一部分人口政策及社会因素对人口发展的影响 ,可供有关研究及政策制定部门参考。
Based on the LESLIE Matrix as the dynamic function, we built up the mathematical model of the china population development since the adoption of “Family Planning Policy”. A few assumptions are made and justified by the Census Data. With this model, we could accurately estimate the yearly age distribution pattern of China population from 1980 to 1998. By modifying the relevant parameters and input, we further calculate the population age distribution in 2015 with and without adoption of “a spouse can have two children if the two parties of the spouse are both the only child in their family”. This model could be used, through adapting its parameters, to calculate and project population development under some different social conditions.
出处
《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第z1期28-33,共6页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis
基金
JUN-ZHENG基金(李政道教授资助 )项目
