摘要
在分析巴斯模型和重复购买的产品生命周期模型等的基础上,提出重复购买模型,详细讨论该模型的参数的估计法,分析银行卡产业的扩散及参数灵敏度,在此基础上使用模型做产品销量预测,表明模型的参数估计方法及预测方法的有效性和产业相关性的影响度。
On the basis of Bass model and product life circle model with repurchase,the author brings out the repurchasing model,discusses the estimate method of parameter in details,and analyzes the diffusion process of bank card industry as well as the sensibility of the parameters.Then this paper forecasts the sales volume of products further,and indicates the validity of the estimation method on model and the influence of industry relativity.
出处
《系统管理学报》
北大核心
2007年第S1期87-92,共6页
Journal of Systems & Management
关键词
产品生命周期
重复购买模型
非线性估计
预测
灵敏度
product life circle
repurchase model
non-linearity estimate
forecast
sensibility
