摘要
基于特定地区的工业投资是后发国家(或地区)干预经济的重要手段,但其长期政策效果却未引起足够关注。文章搜集整理了各种史料,构建了抗日战争时期后方十省的县级工业数据库,探究抗日战争时期大后方地区的工业投资对经济发展所带来的长期影响及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)如果1942-1945年间县内工业企业数量越多,那么其在新中国时期经济发展水平越高,不过该效应随时间逐渐减弱。(2)近代大后方地区的工业投资通过路径依赖和初始物质资本积累对长期经济发展产生了正向影响。历史上工业投资越高的地区,当下的工业化程度也越高,但工业企业的生产效率并没有显著差别。(3)历史上拥有更多工业投资的地区在当下能够吸引更多的人口迁入,同时拥有更高的城市化率,不过该历史基础并未显著影响与农村相关的变量,如婴儿死亡率以及农村居民纯收入等。上述结论说明,向特定地区的大规模投资可以帮助其更快地完成工业化,逆比较优势的产业布局在短期会带来效率损失,但在长期却可能带来正面效应。
Developing economy to get rid of poverty is the common goal of all low-income countries.For many developing countries,small-scale markets and inadequate incentives for private investment are key reasons for economic stagnation.Therefore,these governments often invest directly in the industrial sectors of specific regions or industries,expecting that such industrial policies can promote industrialization and accelerate economic growth.Considering the scope economic characteristics of the industrial sector,the industrial policy of governmental direct investment can make the economy jump from low-level equilibrium to highlevel equilibrium.In practice,the policy effect also depends on a series of constraints faced by a country,and these constraints are endogenous to the past economic structure,which means that quantitative research based on the historical perspective is of great significance.It helps to identify the key elements for development and provides empirical support for policy implications.The difficulty in identifying the long-term effect of industrial policies is that the areas of industrial investment are not randomly selected.In order to achieve causal inference,this paper exploits the long-term effect of the quasi-natural experiment of Anti-Japanese War on the economic development of the rear area.By sorting out historical data files,the county-level industrial database of ten provinces during the Anti-Japanese War is constructed,and the data are matched with the contemporary economic and social development data in the same geographical space.Then,using the regression model,the long-term performance of industrial investment in history is estimated.The main findings are as follows:First,the more the number of industrial enterprises in the county from 1942 to 1945,the higher the level of economic development in the new China period,but the effect is gradually weakening with time.Second,the industrial investment in the rear area of modern times has a positive effect on the long-term economic development th
作者
王鑫
庞浩
白极星
齐秀琳
Wang Xin;Pang Hao;Bai Jixing;Qi Xiulin(School of Economics,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;HSBC Business School,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,China;Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期80-94,109,共16页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金西部和边疆地区项目(20XJC790008)
关键词
抗日战争
工业投资
经济增长
Anti-Japanese War
industrial investment
economic growth
