摘要
目前学术界关于城镇化率与居民消费率之间关系的研究,大多倾向于认为城镇化率与居民消费率之间存在自发的"U型"演变关系。但是,这些文献并未用众多国家的海量数据进行经验检验,显得这一研究缺乏充足的实证依据。本文尝试利用世界162个国家(地区)1960-2017年面板数据展开深化研究。经研究发现,这种演变趋势并不能自发产生,工业生产率对演变过程发挥着决定性作用:工业生产率较高的国家(地区),城镇化率与居民消费率间呈正相关关系;工业生产率较低的国家(地区),城镇化率与居民消费率间呈负相关关系;工业生产率一般的国家(地区),城镇化率与居民消费率之间的关系不确定。因此,中国应立足国内工业化和城镇化发展阶段,遵循产业结构演进规律,强化工业基础能力,提高工业生产率,为充分发挥城镇化对居民消费的拉动作用创造条件。
The present study among academia on the urbanization rate and consumption rate relationships tends to think there is mostly spontaneous"U-type"evolution trend between urbanization rate and consumption rate.However,these documents do not empiricaliy test with the massive amounts of data of many countries,so this study appears to lack sufficient empirical evidence.This paper attempts to use the panel data from the 162 countries(regions)of the world from 1960 to 2017 to do empirical research.In this paper,we found that this trend does not evolve spontaneously,and industrial productivity plays a decisive role in evolution:in the countries(regions)with higher industrial productivity,the urbanization rate and consumption rate are positively correlated;in the countries(regions)with lower industrial productivity,the urbanization rate and consumption rate are negatively correlated;in the countries(regions)with average industrial productivity,the relationship between the urbanization rate and consumption rate is not clear.Therefore,China should be based on domestic industrialization and urbanization stage of development,follow the law of the evolution of industrial structure,strengthen the industrial basic capacity,improve industrial productivity,create conditions for making full use of the pulling effect of urbanization on household consumption.
作者
郑得坤
李凌
ZHENG De-kun;LI Ling(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期78-88,共11页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“收入分配、居民消费与中国经济转型研究”(批准号:15CJL024)
上海社会科学院经济研究所“城镇化背景下的居民消费模式研究”项目阶段性成果之一.
关键词
城镇化
工业化
居民消费率
内在机理
经验研究
Urbanization
Industrialization
Household Consumption Rate
Internal Mechanism
Empirical Analysis
