摘要
我国是乳制品消费大国,2018年奶源自给率仅66.1%。厘清我国原料奶粉进口的现状和主要驱动因素,对于合理利用国际资源、科学制定奶业进口政策具有重要意义。本文利用LMDI分解分析方法,将影响我国原料奶粉进口量的变化分解为替代效应、偏好效应、需求效应、人口规模效应四个部分,结果发现:偏好效应是造成我国进口原料奶粉增长的主要原因,而替代效应是抑制原料奶粉进口的主要因素。建议提高我国奶业竞争力,引导国内科学消费。
China is a large dairy consumption country.In 2018,the milk supply rate was only 66.1%.It is of great significance to clarify the current situation and main driving factors of China’s raw milk powder import for the rational use of global resources and the scientific formulation of milk import policies.This research decomposes the changes of raw milk powder imports into four parts,including substitution effect,preference effect,demand effect and population size effect based on LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method.It is found that the preference effect is the main reason for the growth of imported raw milk powder in China,and the substitution effect is the main factor that inhibits the import of raw milk powder.It is recommended to improve the competitiveness of China’s dairy industry and guide domestic scientific consumption.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第12期55-58,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
农业部2019年创新人才项目“主要农产品市场监测预警关键技术研究”
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目“农业生产管理数字化技术创新团队”(CAAS-ASTIP-2019-AII-02)农业部2019监测预警项目.
关键词
原料奶粉
进口贸易
奶源自给率
偏好效应
替代效应
LMDI分解法
Raw milk powder
Import trade
Milk self-sufficient rate
Preference effect
Substitution effect
LMDI decomposition method
