摘要
通过对比全球农产品价格波动的历史事实,可以发现造成极端价格波动的原因主要来自外生的冲击,其作用机制是在于特定因素对价格波动的影响放大。一般意义上的全球农产品价格波动的作用在于实现供需再平衡与信息再传递,属于内生机制。因此,与价格异常波动的作用机制并不一致。从趋势来看,随着生产效率提高,在需求趋于饱和条件下,农产品价格呈现出趋势性下降。透过当前全球农产品价格的波动与趋势,可以认为:主导全球农产品价格体系的主要原因是内生机制,面对新冠疫情,该机制将确保未来全球农产品价格的再一次回归。
By comparing the historical facts of global agricultural product price fluctuations,it can be found that the cause of extreme price fluctuations mainly comes from exogenous shocks,and the mechanism of action is the magnification of the impact of specific factors on price fluctuations.In the general sense,the role of global agricultural product price fluctuations is to realize the rebalancing of supply and demand and the retransmission of information,which is an endogenous mechanism.Therefore,it is inconsistent with the mechanism of abnormal price fluctuations.From a trend point of view,with the improvement of production efficiency,the prices of agricultural products have shown a trend of decline under the conditions of saturation of demand.Through the current fluctuations and trends of global agricultural product prices,it can be considered that the main reason for the global agricultural product price system is the endogenous mechanism.In the face of the new crown epidemic,this mechanism will ensure the return of global agricultural product prices in the future.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第7期74-78,164,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
全球农产品价格
异常波动
波动周期
市场机制
global agricultural product prices
abnormal volatility
volatility cycle
market mechanism
