摘要
今年以来,国际大宗商品价格上行趋势显著加快,推动我国PPI持续走高。由于采掘和原材料等生产资料价格涨势突出,需密切关注其对中下游加工业和生活资料工业的影响。本文从上游价格回升比较明显的煤炭、金属、石化产业链入手,详细分析了部分重点行业"价格—利润—投资"的传导情况;并基于面板模型分析各工业大类行业价格对利润率和投资增速的影响系数。从整体上看,PPI持续上涨有助于改善各行业利润率,但加剧了上中下游行业的利润率分化,对制造业投资的带动作用也比较有限;若原材料价格上涨趋势继续向下游传导恐将扰乱消费复苏步伐,加重中小企业的生产经营困难。建议相关部门加强价格监测预警,切实做好原材料保供稳价;适时调节政策力度,化解企业经营"痛点""难点";主动顺应市场变化,提升企业风险意识和竞争力。
Since the beginning of this year,the upward trend of international bulk commodity prices has accelerated significantly,which has pushed my country’s PPI to continue to rise.As the prices of production materials such as mining and raw materials have risen sharply,it is necessary to pay close attention to their impact on the middle and lower reaches of the processing industry and the subsistence industry.Starting from the coal,metal,and petrochemical industry chains where the upstream prices have rebounded significantly,this article analyzes in detail the transmission of"price-profit-investment"in some key industries;and analyzes the impact of prices on profitability and investment in various industrial sectors based on the panel model.The influence coefficient of the growth rate.On the whole,the continuous rise of PPI will help improve the profit margins of various industries,but it will aggravate the profit margin differentiation of the upstream,midstream and downstream industries,and the driving effect on manufacturing investment will be relatively limited;if the rising trend of raw material prices continues to spread to the downstream It will disrupt the pace of consumption recovery and increase the production and operation difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.It is recommended that relevant departments strengthen price monitoring and early warning,and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the supply of raw materials and stabilizing prices;adjust policies in a timely manner to resolve the"pain points"and"difficulties"of business operations;actively adapt to market changes and enhance corporate risk awareness and competitiveness.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第7期101-105,165,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
PPI
工业经济
产业链
投入产出
PPI
industrial economy
industrial chain
input-output
