摘要
经济发展是经济质量、经济增长与经济周期的综合反映。中国经济质量已发展至"合理区间",但近年来已有所放缓。TVAR模型估计结果显示,经济质量处于"合理区间"时,经济质量的波动风险与经济周期的"减速器效应"会对冲投资产业结构的"加速器效应",且经济增长与经济周期间的负反馈循环会进一步抑制经济质量的提升。随着投资产业结构与经济增长间"脱钩"现象的改善,经济质量的波动风险将得到抑制,稳定经济质量的政策成本将有所降低。目前,中国第三产业投资与非第三产业投资间已形成乘数效应。但2019年以来的经济稳增长压力仍将持续,需要以政策争时间,以时间换空间,允许经济质量的暂时放缓以换取长期发展。
Economic development is a comprehensive reflection of economic quality,economic growth and economic cycle.The quality of China’s economy has developed to a“Reasonable Range”,but it has slowed down in recent years.TVAR Model shows that when the economic quality is in a“Reasonable Range”,the downward adjustment tendency of economic quality and the“reducer effect”of economic cycle will hedge the“accelerator effect”of investment industrial structure,and the negative feedback cycle between economic growth and economic cycle will further inhibit the improvement of economic quality.With the improvement of“decoupling”between investment industrial structure and economic growth,the downward adjustment tendency of economic quality will be restrained,and the policy cost of stabilizing economic quality will be reduced.At present,there has been a multiplier effect between China’s tertiary industry investment and non-tertiary industry investment.But,since 2019,the pressure of stable economic growth will continue.We need to compete for time with policies,trade time for space,and allow the temporary slowdown of economic quality in exchange for long-term development.
作者
孙彦林
陈守东
吴业强
Sun Yanlin;Chen Shoudong;Wu Yeqiang
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期134-147,共14页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
吉林省科技发展计划项目“吉林省高新技术产业开发区高质量发展的量化评价、引擎测度与瓶颈突破”(20210601089FG),主持人:孙彦林
吉林省教育科学“十三五”规划2020年度一般规划课题“教育治理能力现代化实践路径研究”(GH20025),主持人:孙彦林
关键词
投资产业结构
经济质量指数
门限效应
Investment industrial structure
Economic quality index
Threshold effect
