摘要
多数的资金脱实向虚问题研究都是从需求角度解释的。从供给角度来看,资金面的大幅宽松虽然为实体经济提供充裕的流动性,但由于资金在金融市场的聚集不断提升收益率,从而形成正反馈效应而引发脱实向虚现象。本文运用BSADF检验测度了我国资本市场泡沫,检验了泡沫的存在状态对货币政策效率的影响,通过滚动回归模型检验了金融资产收益率与流动性态势之间的反馈机制。结论表明,我国存在两轮明显的泡沫,当泡沫存在时,经济增长与货币态势之间的敏感性下降,较高的资产泡沫会导致金融资产和实体经济投资收益率差距扩大,流动性大幅宽松不能有效支持实体经济,反而降低货币政策传导效率。
Most of the researches on the problem of funds shifting from real to virtual are explained from the perspective of demand.From the perspective of supply side,although the substantial easing of funds provides abundant liquidity for the real economy,it leads to the phenomenon of shifting from real to virtual due to the accumulation of funds in the financial market,which continuously increases the rate of return,thus forming a positive feedback effect.This paper uses the BSADF test method to measure the capital market bubbles in China,and tests the relationship between the bubble environment and monetary policy efficiency,as well as the feedback mechanism between the rate of return on financial assets and the liquidity situation using rolling regression model.The conclusion shows that there were two obvious bubbles in China.A higher asset bubble will lead to a widening gap between the return rate of financial assets and the real economy investment.The substantial easing of liquidity cannot effectively support the real economy,but reduces the transmission efficiency of monetary policy.
出处
《金融发展评论》
2019年第8期78-90,共13页
Financial Development Review
基金
国家教育部青年基金项目(项目编号:19YJC910009)
关键词
资本市场泡沫
BSADF检验
货币政策效率
资金脱实向虚
Capital market bubbles
BSADF test
Monetary policy efficiency
The diversion of funds from real to virtual
