摘要
当前全球正处在严重的通胀压力之下,此前全球持续多年的大缓和时代一去不复返。从本轮通胀的特征看,一是通胀在全球波及的范围甚广,二是通胀的成因已由成本推动转向全面通胀,三是通胀表现出较强的黏性。从短期看,新冠肺炎疫情导致全球供应链受损,全球需求供给复苏不同步,乌克兰危机引发能源与粮食危机,及通胀预期的扭转导致工资—通胀螺旋等短期因素,是全球通胀形势剧变的重要因素。从长期看,在劳动力市场供给受损、地缘政治冲突与逆全球化抬头,及气候变化与能源结构重大调整的未来,全球通胀中枢将长期抬升。在可见的未来数年内,尽管通胀大概率会从目前的高点回落,但恐怕再难以回到疫情前大缓和时代低通胀与高增长的局面。为此,我国应当居安思危,早做准备。一是要保持财政和货币政策的定力;二是做好疫情防控,稳定就业市场,减轻劳动力结构矛盾;三是对冲逆全球化的滞胀效应;四是积极稳妥推进实现双碳目标,抢占新能源产业全球制高点。
The world is now under the most serious inflationary pressure in the last 40 years.The era of the Great Moderation that has lasted for many years seems gone forever.Three characteristics of the present inflation can be observed.First,the inflation has spread widely around the world.Second,the cause of the inflation has shifted from cost-driven to comprehensive inflation.Third,the inflation shows strong stickiness.In the short run,factors such as the damage to the global supply chain caused by the COVID-19,the asynchronous recovery of global demand and supply,the energy and food crisis caused by Ukraine Crisis,and the wage-inflation spiral caused by the reversal of inflation expectations are important factors in the dramatic change of the global inflation situation.In the long run,the global inflation level will rise for a long time in the future,due to damaged labor market supply,geopolitical conflicts and the rise of anti-globalization,as well as climate change and major adjustment of the energy structure.It can be seen that in the coming years,although the probable inflation rate will fall back from the current summit,it may be difficult to return to the situation of the Great Moderation in the pre-COVID-19-pandemic era,when low inflation and high growth were combined.For this reason,our country should be well prepared.First,we need to maintain the stability of fiscal and monetary policies.Second,we need to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control,stabilize the employment market,and reduce the contradiction in the labor structure.Third,we need to hedge the stagflation effect of antiglobalization.Fourth,we need to actively and steadily promote the realization of the“3060”carbon reduction target,and take the lead in the global new energy industry.
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2022年第6期48-60,共13页
Development Finance Research
关键词
通货膨胀
大滞胀
大缓和
劳动力市场
地缘政治
气候变化
Inflation
the Great Stagflation
the Great Moderation
Labor Market
Geopolitics
Climate Change
