摘要
2023年3月,美国硅谷银行事件拉开了此次美国银行业危机的序幕,从表象上看是银行自身管理不善的个案,但实际反映出银行体系的结构性问题,其根源在于美国货币政策激进转向导致的金融生态环境巨大变化,银行业风险积聚。从货币政策走向来看,由于美国通胀问题较为严重,当前美联储陷入了加息抑制通胀还是降息提升经济和缓解银行业危机的两难处境。文章认为,目前美联储首选加息应对通胀,但后期美国将面对经济下行和银行业危机加重的问题。美联储的加息政策将对全球经济和欧洲银行业危机产生明显的外溢作用。文章还分析了美国银行业危机的后续影响及对我国金融业的启示,提出我国要慎用激进货币政策,注重银行业资产负债管理,关注资金的跨境流动,谨防美国银行业危机扩大化等。
In March 2023,the Silicon Valley Bank incident opened the prelude to the U.S.banking crisis.On the surface,it was a case of the bank’s own mismanagement,but it reflected the structural problems of the banking system.The environment has undergone tremendous changes,and risks in the banking industry have accumulated.From the perspective of monetary policy,due to the serious inflation problem in the United States,the Fed is currently caught in a dilemma of raising interest rates to curb inflation or cutting interest rates to boost the economy and ease the banking crisis.It is believed that the Fed’s first choice is to raise interest rates to deal with inflation,but the United States will face the problems of economic downturn and aggravated banking crisis in the later stage.The Fed’s policy of raising interest rates will have an obvious spillover effect on the global economy and the European banking crisis.Finally,the article analyzes the follow-up impact of the US banking crisis and its enlightenment to China’s financial industry,including being cautious with radical monetary policy,paying attention to the bank’s asset and liability management,and the cross-border capital flow,and preventing the aggravation of the crisis.
作者
欧阳航
刘扬
Ouyang Hang;Liu Yang
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2023年第3期28-38,共11页
Development Finance Research
关键词
美国银行业危机
硅谷银行
加息
通胀
U.S.Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank
Interest Rate Hike
Inflation
