摘要
2020年1季度新冠肺炎疫情冲击使经济景气出现了断崖式大幅下降,警情指数罕见发出"过冷"信号,但2、3季度经济景气明显回暖,9月已经回到"正常"区间。经济周期已经在2020年2月形成改革开放以来的最低收缩谷底,从3月开始经济景气进入新一轮周期的扩张期。预计4季度GDP增速将继续回升至潜在增长水平附近,全年经济增长2.2%左右,CPI上涨2.6%左右。宏观调控应继续以"保就业、促消费、稳投资"为主要政策发力点,推进落实"六稳""、六保"政策,使经济增长回归并保持在潜在增长率水平附近;同时需提前关注和应对经济金融领域的多种风险,平衡好稳增长和防风险。
The outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a precipitous drop of economic growth in the 2020 Q1 and the warning index rarely signaled"very cold".However,the economy has obviously recovered in the 2020 Q2 and Q3,and had even returned to the"normal"in September 2020.The business cycle has formed the lowest contraction trough since the reform and opening up in in February 2020,and the economic growth has entered the expansion period of a new cycle from this March.It is predicted that the annual GDP growth rate will be about 2.2%,while the annual inflation rate will be about 2.6%.It is suggested that macroeconomic policies should continue to ensure"six priorities"and"six stability"for the economic recovery,so as to bring the economy return and stick to its potential growth rate;we should pay attention to various risks in the economic and financial systems,and balance the growth stability and risk prevention.
作者
陈磊
吴少将
孟勇刚
CHEN Lei;WU Shaojiang;MENG Yonggang(Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,Dongbei University of Finace Economics(DUFE),Dalian 116025;School of Economics,DUFE,Dalian 116025)
出处
《科技促进发展》
CSCD
2020年第11期1282-1292,共11页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
2019年国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA094):宏观经济稳增长与金融系统防风险动态平衡机制研究,负责人:史永东
关键词
经济周期
景气分析
物价
监测预警
经济预测
business cycle
prosperity analysis
price
monitoring and early warning
economic forecasting
