摘要
从2008年金融危机和2009年奥巴马担任美国总统后推行激进的移民政策和多元主义改革之后,美国三次大选和中期选举中均出现大量针对选举舞弊的报道和指控。很多19世纪和20世纪上半叶常见的选举操纵手段再次频繁出现。特朗普在两次总统竞选中,以阴谋论为基础将选举舞弊发展成为一种超越选举胜败的常态叙事,已经得到相当多的共和党选民的认同与支持。美国存在一个潜在的非法选民群体,而共和党政客将数字进行夸大,增加了选民的怀疑和不信任。而美国的选举制度使得摇摆州的关键少数选票对于大选结果有决定性意义,即使是极少数的自发的作弊选票也会严重影响选举的信度和效度。美国目前的政治高度极化使得两党在选民登记程序和投票方式等问题上无法达成共识,一方试图强行通过法律的做法增加了另一方的选民在选举中的自发性舞弊动机。鉴于2020年大选之后左翼和右翼均有诉诸暴力的倾向,未来美国的各类选举过后仍然将会有潜在的不稳定因素,甚至政治矛盾可能更加激化。尽管如此,美国选举仍然可以在一定范围内进行可行性的改革,例如从法律上规范邮寄投票的操作,进行严格的选民登记,以及对舞弊行为作出更为严厉的惩罚,等等。
Since the financial crisis in 2008 and Barack Obama's radical immigration policy and pluralist reforms in 2009,there have been a large number of reports and allegations of election rigging in the three U.S.general elctions and three mid-term elections.Many of the popular voter fraud tactics of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries are recurring frequently.In the two presidential campaigns,Donald Trump developed a narrative based on conspiracy theories,which has been supported by a considerable number of Republican voters.Whether he won or lost the election,he has always adhered to this logic.There is indeed a potential group of ilgal voters,but Republican politicians have exaggerated the numbers,increasing public suspicion and distrust.The election rules of the United States make the critical minority of votes in swing states decisive for the results of the general election,and even a very small number of occasional fraudulent votes will seriously affect the validity of the election.The current political polarization has prevented the two parties from reaching consensus on issues such as voter registration and voting rules,and one party's attempt to force through laws has increased the motivation of voters on the other party to cheat in the election.Both left-wing and right-wing activists have tried to resort to violence after the 2020 general election.Therefore,there will still be potential instability after various elections in the United States in the future,and political conflicts may even become more intensified.Despite this,some feasible reforms can still be made for U.S.elections,such as regulating mail-in voting,adopting stricter voter registration,and making stricter penalties for fraudulent behavior,etc.
出处
《美国问题研究》
2023年第1期26-53,248,共29页
Fudan American Review
