摘要
以美国社会周期和代际周期为基础,本文尝试构建一个复合长周期分析框架,用于分析中美关系走势。社会周期和代际周期就像一副窥探社会体制运行机制的“显微镜”,从主导政坛精英的人物原型切入,解读总统性格特点及其对华政策。拜登属于“文艺型”人物原型,具有天生的领导气质,善于从大局出发,为了实现长远目标甘愿做出妥协。更重要的是,拜登是具有“社会水泥”特点的领导者,擅长弥合意见分歧,为其利益服务。“文艺型”人物特点叠加长期从政生涯意味着,中国将在拜登时期面临来自美国的更大外部压力,这种压力还将随着美国社会“第四转折点”的到来持续多年。谋划应对中美关系应从社会周期和代际周期的微观机制出发,及时调整对美方略。
Based on American Social Cycle and Generation Cycle,this paper attempts to construct a dual long-cycle analysis framework to analyze the Sino-U.S.relations.American Social Cycle and Generation Cycle are like a“microscope”to observe the operating mechanism of the society.From the archetype of the character who dominates the political elite,it interprets the personality characteristics of the president and his policy toward China.Biden belongs to the“Artist”character prototype.He has a natural leadership temperament.What's more,he is good at starting from the overall situation and is willing to make compromises in order to achieve long-term goals.To some extent,Biden is a leader of“social cement”,who is adept at bridging differences of opinion to serve for his interests.The combination of the.characteristics of“Artist”characters and long political career means that we will face greater pressure during Biden period.Besides,this pressure will continue for many years with the arrival of the“fourth turning”in American society.Planning and dealing with Sino-U.S.relations should start from the micro-mechanism of American Social Cycle as well as Generation Cycle,and adjust the strategy for the U.S.in a timely manner.
作者
陈实
张晓通
Chen Shi;Zhang Xiaotong
出处
《美国问题研究》
2023年第1期137-162,252-253,共28页
Fudan American Review
基金
2020年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局下的全球治理与‘一带一路’关系研究”(20&ZD147)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
美国社会周期
代际周期
人物原型
总统性格
中美关系
American Social Cycle
Generation Cycle
Archetype of The Character
President's Personality Characteristics
Sino-U.S.relationship
