摘要
在梳理和分析欧美能源现状、能源独立的相关政策内容及我国光伏产业现状和问题的基础上,重点分析了欧洲禁令和美国通胀削减法案以及相关光伏供应链重构计划,从短期和长期2个维度,重点研究了其对我国光伏供应链的相关影响。短期来看,一是对当前光伏上下游市场竞争格局不会产生大的影响;二是需要审慎考虑海外建厂等对外投资形式,规避相关风险。长期来看,一是必定会对中国光伏产业链各个环节在全球产业链中的地位构成威胁;二是逐步形成以大中华、欧洲和美国为主要出口地的“三足鼎立”光伏贸易流格局;三是中国光伏供应链各环节将从现在的绝对优势逐步下降,中国国内光伏供应链格局将会有所调整,新疆等受影响地区的光伏制造业产业布局会受到限制。
On the basis of sorting out and analyzing the current situation of energy in Europe and the United States and the relevant policy content of energy independence,as well as introducing the development status and problems faced by China’s photovoltaic industry,this paper focuses on the analysis of the European ban,the inflation reduction act of the United States and the relevant photovoltaic supply chain reconstruction plan,and focuses on the relevant impact on China’s photovoltaic supply chain from the short and long-term dimensions.In the short term,first,it will not have a significant impact on the current competition pattern of the upstream and downstream PV market;second,Chinese photovoltaic enterprises should carefully consider overseas construction and other forms of foreign investment to avoid relevant risks.In the long run,first,it will pose a threat to the position of all links of China’s photovoltaic industry chain in the global industry chain;second,gradually form the“three pillars”photovoltaic trade flow pattern with Greater China,Europe and the United States as the main export destinations;third,all links of China’s PV supply chain will gradually decline from the current absolute advantage,and China’s domestic photovoltaic supply chain structure will be adjusted,such as the layout of photovoltaic manufacturing industry in Xinjiang and other affected areas will be limited.
作者
王鑫
Wang Xin(Technological and Economic National Energy Group,Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102200,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2023年第10期66-71,共6页
Coal Economic Research
关键词
能源独立
欧盟禁令
美国通胀削减法案
光伏供应链
energy independence
EU ban
US inflation reduction act
photovoltaic supply chain
