摘要
迄今我国每年统计艾滋病的新增人数与死亡人数仍呈上升趋势,由于潜伏期长和初期无明显症状等原因,还存在大量未发现的HIV携带者,这给HIV的防控带来巨大挑战.旨在利用中国疾控中心网报数据和深圳市患者随访数据,结合传染病动力学和统计分析方法与临床知识,建立依微观CD4细胞计数划分的宏观HIV仓室数学模型,通过数值计算方法与MCMC参数估计方法实现稳健的参数拟合,进而利用不确定性和敏感性以及随机森林方法进行灵敏度分析.研究结果表明:2013年广东省未确诊HIV携带者约为13.1061万人,且该地区HIV疫情传播的基本再生数为2.8133.敏感性分析揭示艾滋病疫情防控最优方法是控制患者有效接触人数与沉默系数,由此建议制定针对控制艾滋病传播中一些现象的法律法规,在艾滋病高发地区实施清洁针具交换工作等,对疫情防控提出指导性建议.
So far the growth rate and death rate of HIV/AIDS patients in China's Mainland are still increasing rapidly based on the reported data,and there are still a large number of undetected carriers of HIV due to its long incubation period,no obvious symptoms in the initial stage and social discrimination,which brings great challenges to the prevention and control of HIV.We propose a HIV compartment model based on CD4 cell counts with reported multi-scale data sets.We aim at estimating the number of undiagnosed HIV/AIDS patients and basic reproduction number,and main results reveal that the undiagnosed HIV/AIDS patients was 22,236 in Guangdong province in 2013 and the basic reproduction number was2.8133.Furthermore,the sensitivity analyses depict the key control measures and consequently some useful control tactics are discussed and proposed for public health department.
作者
刘洋
张志琳
唐三一
LIU Yang;ZHANG Zhi-lin;TANG San-yi(School of Mathematics and Information Science,Shanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2020年第1期188-200,共13页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(61772017,11631012).
