摘要
"8.11"汇改之后,人民币汇率的波动性显著增加,为此央行引入了以参考一篮子货币变动为核心的中间价定价机制。文章通过构建VAR模型测算了人民币中间价参考的三大货币篮子指数对我国月度国际货物与服务贸易顺差的影响。实证发现:三大货币篮子指数与我国国际货物和服务贸易差额之间存在均衡稳定的长期负向关系,且CFETS人民币汇率指数的影响最为稳定。
The volatility of the RMB exchange rate has increased significantly since the "8.11" exchange rate reform in 2015.As a result,the central bank has introduced a central parity pricing mechanism with referencing to changes in basket currencies as the core.By constructing a VAR model,the article calculates the impact of the three major currency baskets referenced by the RMB central parity on China’s monthly international trade surplus in goods and services.The empirical findings show that there is a stable and long-term negative correlation between China’s international trade balance in goods and services and the three major currency basket indexes,and that the CFETS RMB index has the most stable influence.
出处
《中国货币市场》
2020年第10期33-37,共5页
China Money
