摘要
东亚夏季风是影响我国夏季气候最主要的环流系统,其异常变化是造成东亚各国夏季严重旱涝灾害的直接原因。热带海气耦合系统是导致东亚夏季风异常的重要驱动因子。在全球变暖的背景下,热带海气相互作用和东亚夏季风系统都正在发生显著的变化。重点回顾了近年来热带关键海表面温度模态厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)和热带印度洋—西太平洋暖池对全球变暖响应的物理机制、热带关键区海气相互作用对东亚夏季风系统的影响机制以及2021—2050年东亚夏季风降水趋势预估方面的进展。对于理解全球变暖背景下东亚夏季风系统变化以及相关重大旱涝灾害形成的物理机制有重要科学价值,预估东亚夏季风气候未来的变化也可以为我国应对和适应气候变化提供科学支撑。
The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)is the most important atmospheric circulation system that affects summer climate in China.Severe drought and flood disasters in East Asian countries in summer are closely tied to anomalous EASM.Tropical air-sea coupling system is an important driving factor affecting the variability of the EASM.Under the background of global warming,the tropical air-sea interaction,and the EASM are undergoing significant changes.This paper mainly reviews recent progress on the response mechanism of the dominant mode of tropical airsea interaction,including ENSO and the warm pool,to global warming.And the impact of the tropical air-sea interaction in key regions on the EASM system and the related mechanism have been also reviewed.In addition,the recent progress on the future projection of the EASM precipitation for the next 30 years is provided.The results are of great scientific value for understanding changes of the East Asian summer monsoon system and formation mechanisms of related major drought and flood disasters in East Asia under the background of global warming.The near-term projection of the EASM changes can also provide the scientific support for national decision-making on the adapting to climate change.
作者
龚海楠
温之平
张人禾
周连童
王林
陈文
GONG Hainan;WEN Zhiping;ZHANG Renhe;ZHOU Liantong;WANG Lin;CHEN Wen(Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438;School of Earth Sciences,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500)
出处
《中国基础科学》
2023年第1期37-45,共9页
China Basic Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600600)
