摘要
量化分析方法在应急管理研究中具有独特的优势和多维价值,为围绕“一案三制”进行体制机制分析或个案比较研究的主流应急管理方法提供了重要补充。本文从数据、因果和算法三方面讨论了量化研究方法在应急管理研究中的应用。目前的量化应急管理研究仍存在数据层级不足、因果关系模糊和预测能力缺失等问题,基于此,本文提出三大量化方法路径:一是基于多维度大数据实现对应急事件结构的全方位、多维度、多层次测量;二是采用因果推断方法评估政策的实施效果并厘清风险管理的内在因果机制;三是利用复杂机器学习模型和仿真模拟提升关键指标的预测能力,并捕捉应急管理系统的动态发展过程。新数据和前沿量化研究方法的运用有助于扎根中国应急管理实践,助力中国特色的应急管理理论体系建设,为应急管理的预防准备、应对善后等提供数据和方法支持。
Quantitative analysis methods have unique advantages and multidimensional value in emergency management research,providing important complements to mainstream emergency management methods that focus on institutional mechanism analysis or case comparison research.This article discusses the application of quantitative research methods in emergency management research from three aspects:data,causality and algorithms.At present,quantitative research in emergency management still faces problems such as insufficient data hierarchy,ambiguous causal relationships,and lack of predictive ability.Based on these,this article proposes three quantitative methods:first,to achieve comprehensive,multidimensional,and multi-level measurement of the structure of emergency events based on multidimensional big data;second,to use causal inference methods to evaluate the implementation effectiveness of policies and clarify the inherent causal mechanisms of risk management;third,to use complex machine learning models and simulation to enhance the predictive ability of key indicators and capture the dynamic development process of emergency management systems.The application of new data and cutting-edge quantitative research methods will contribute to the practice of emergency management in China,support the construction of a theoretical system of emergency management characteristic of China,and provide data and methodological support for the prevention,preparedness,response and recovery of emergency management.
作者
陈茁
陈云松
Chen Zhuo;Chen Yunsong(School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210000)
出处
《中国行政管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第11期139-147,共9页
Chinese Public Administration
关键词
应急管理
定量研究
大数据
因果推断
机器学习
Emergency Management:Quantitative Research
Big Data
Causal Inference
Machine Learning
