摘要
识别出具有战略意义的“卡脖子”问题是中国实现关键核心技术突破要解决的首要任务。本文采用定量与定性相结合方法,构建“关键核心技术筛选—潜在‘卡脖子’问题判定—‘卡脖子’问题甄别”三阶段识别模型。首先,从“战略安全性—前沿技术性—经济价值性”3个维度设计指标体系,筛选出关键核心技术;其次,从“数量差距—质量差距”2个维度构建技术差距指数模型,判定出潜在的“卡脖子”问题;再次,从“模仿创新—自主攻克—颠覆性替代”3个维度制定专家甄别方案,识别出关键核心技术“卡脖子”问题;最后,以AI芯片产业为实证对象,识别得到集成电路先进工艺、精密光学器件控制、核心算法等14项关键核心技术“卡脖子”问题清单。本文不仅弥补了现有研究仅采用定量分析或定性分析的不足,而且可以为中国科技发展趋势预测和关键核心技术攻关提供决策参考。
Identification of strategically significant“bottleneck”issues is a paramount task in China s quest for breakthroughs in critical core technologies.In this article,a three-stage identification model of“selection of key core technology-determination of potential bottleneck issues-identification of bottleneck issues”is constructed using both quantitative and qualitative approaches.Firstly,a three-dimensional index system is designed from the perspectives of“strategic security,frontier technology,and economic value”to screen for key core technologies.Secondly,a technology gap index model is constructed from the dimensions of“quantity gap and quality gap”to determine potential“bottleneck”issues.Thirdly,expert identification schemes are developed based on the dimensions of“mimic innovation,independent breakthrough,and disruptive substitution”to identify the“bottleneck”issues of key core technologies.Lastly,taking the AI chip industry as the empirical object,14“bottleneck”issues of key core technologies,such as advanced integrated circuit technology,precise control of optical devices,and core algorithms,are identified.This article not only fills the gap of existing research that only uses either quantitative or qualitative analysis,but also provides decision-making references for predicting trends in China s technological development and determining strategies for breakthroughs in key core technologies.
作者
陈旭
江瑶
熊焰
张凌恺
Chen Xu;Jiang Yao;Xiong Yan;Zhang Lingkai(School of Economics&Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第9期17-27,共11页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“数字文化产业创新生态系统价值共创研究:动因、机制与演化”(72104137),国家自然科学基金项目“国际学习对制造企业国际化速度的作用机制与时空效应研究”(71974130),上海市科技创新行动计划软科学研究项目“面向上海未来产业培育的颠覆性技术识别及突破路径研究”(23692123100),上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目“上海融合性数字产业‘卡脖子’技术甄选机制与攻关路径研究”(21YF1415900)。
