摘要
在银行资金运用能力增强的支撑下,2019年货币供应量增长平稳,社会融资规模多增较多。货币市场利率运行平稳,社会融资成本稳中有落。人民币汇率跌破“7”后运行稳定,跨境资金总体偏“净流出”。2020年我国金融运行与调控面临全球经济下行风险加大、各国货币政策掀起宽松潮的外部环境,也面临猪肉价格阶段性抬高CPI涨幅、经济下行压力持续存在、实体经济融资需求仍偏弱等内部问题。金融开放步伐加快使得外部不确定不稳定因素更易带来外部风险冲击。2020年货币政策要在“稳增长”“防风险”“控通胀预期”等多重目标间权衡和相机抉择,根据经济增长和价格形势变化及时预调微调,适度加大逆周期调节力度。
In 2019,the growth rate of M2 stabilizes.The growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy increases considerably.Money market interest rates run smoothly.The financing costs of real economy decrease steadily.RMB exchange rate keep stable after falling below"7".The cross-border capital faces outflow pressure.In 2020,China's financial operation and regulation will face the risks of global economic downturn increasing and monetary policies of various countries easing.Internal problems are the periodic rise of CPI in pork price,the continuous downward pressure on the economy,and the weak demand for financing in the real economy.In 2020,monetary policy should balance and make appropriate choices among multiple objectives such as"stable growth","risk prevention"and"inflation control expectations",adjust and fine tune in time according to economic growth and changes in price situation,and moderately increase counter cyclical adjustment.
作者
李若愚
LI Ruoyu(Department of Economic Forecasting,State Information Center,Beijing 100045)
出处
《科技促进发展》
CSCD
2019年第11期1228-1233,共6页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究,负责人:陈磊。
关键词
货币政策
货币
信贷
利率
汇率
monetary policy
money
loan
interest rate
exchange rate
