摘要
针对中长期电力系统负荷预测,在前人已有成果的基础之上,对普通灰色模型进行了改进。一方面对历史数据进行二次平滑处理,大大消除了干扰因素;另一方面利用带有马尔可夫链符号估计的残差修正技术对未来残差的符号进行预测以修正灰色模型的预测结果。以某地区多年以来的历史数据为基础,建立了数学模型,通过实际数据计算表明:改进后的灰色负荷预测方法可以应用于电力系统中长期负荷预测,而且较普通灰色预测模型在预测精度上有着明显的提高,尤其是对于较远时间的负荷预测有着较为理想的预测精度,表明了该种方法的有效性和实用性。
According to the medium and long-term power system load forecasting, improving solutions of the general Gray Model are proposed, based on the previous results in this paper. On one hand, historical data are processed with a second smoothing treatment greatly eliminating interference factors; on the other hand, the results of Gray prediction model predicting are amended depending on the use of Markov chain with. a symbol of the residual estimation. In this paper, a mathematical model on load forecasting is set up based on historical data of an area over the years. The improved gray load forecasting method can be used for long-term power system load forecasting through the numerical example, and and it has obvious improvement in forcasting accura- cy, compared with ordinary gray prediction model, especially for more distant time, which shows that the improved method is effective and practical.
出处
《东北电力大学学报》
2009年第2期64-68,共5页
Journal of Northeast Electric Power University
