摘要
【目的/意义】构建国家科技安全风险评估体系,对分析国家科技安全风险、把握国家安全整体态势和国家安全风险管理具有重大意义。【方法/过程】在总体国家安全观和现有研究基础上,建立了涵盖科技成果、科技人才、科技活动和科技环境四个方面的国家科技安全风险评估指标体系,基于博弈论组合赋权法集成层次分析法和熵值取权法计算指标综合权重;同时运用模糊Borda法,对线性加权评估模型、TOPSIS评估模型、灰色关联度评估模型、主成分评估模型以及粒子群优化投影寻踪评估模型进行组合评估,构建了国家科技安全风险组合评估模型。【结果/结论】研究结果表明,近10年来我国科技安全风险呈现逐年下降的趋势,且科技人才、科技成果、科技环境和科技活动的重要性递减,模型可对国家科技安全风险管理提供借鉴和参考价值。【创新/局限】基于博弈论组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用模糊Borda法对五种单一评估模型进行组合评估,使得国家科技安全风险评估结果更为科学和准确。
【Purpose/significance】To construct a national science and technology(R&T)security risk assessment system,which is essential for analyzing national science and technology threats,grasping the entire national security posture,and managing national security risk.【Method/process】The national science and technology security risk assessment index system,which covers four aspects of R&T achievements,R&T talents,R&T activities,and R&T environment,is established based on the overall national security concept and existing research,and the comprehensive weights of the indexes are calculated by integrating the hierarchical analysis method and entropy weighting method based on the game theory combination assignment method.Meanwhile,the fuzzy Borda method was applied to evaluate the combination of the linear weighted assessment model,TOPSIS assessment model,grey relational assessment model,principal component assessment model and particle swarm optimization projection tracing assessment model,and the national science and technology security risk portfolio assessment model was constructed.【Result/conclusion】The research results show that the risk of national science and technology security has shown a decreasing trend year by year in the past 10 years,and the importance of S&T talents,S&T achievements,S&T environment and S&T activities decreases.The model can provide reference value for national science and technology security risks management.【Innovation/limitation】The game theory portfolio assignment method is used to determine the index weights,and the fuzzy Borda method is applied to the combination of five single assessment models,which makes the national science and technology security risk assessment results more scientific and accurate.
作者
徐宗煌
蔡鸿宇
张伟
石进
XU Zonghuang;CAI Hongyu;ZHANG Wei;SHI Jin(School of Information Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第12期165-173,182,共10页
Information Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“面向国家安全的科技态势感知研究”(21BTQ012)
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“‘一带一路’沿线国家反恐情报安全风险评估与态势感知研究”(KYCX23_0082)
关键词
总体国家安全观
国家科技安全
风险评估
博弈论组合赋权
模糊Borda组合评估
overall national security concept
national science and technology security
risk assessment
game theory portfolio empowerment
fuzzy Borda portfolio assessment
