摘要
道路交通安全分析与评价贯穿道路设计、运营及施工养护全过程,不同阶段和运行特点的道路交通安全分析与评价的目标和内容不尽相同,因此,需根据具体情况选择针对性的交通安全分析与评价方法。为了明确各种道路安全分析与评价方法的特点和适用情形,调研交通事故统计分析、运行速度分析、交通冲突分析以及驾驶行为分析4种典型道路交通安全评价方法,从数据采集、特征指标、方法建模及实践应用等方面综述不同评价方法的特点和适用情形,并总结不同方法的发展趋势。文献分析表明:基于交通事故统计和运行速度分析的道路交通安全分析与评价方法已形成较为成熟的理论模型,并应用于道路交通安全评价;然而,基于交通冲突和驾驶行为的安全评价方法仍存在数据来源和指标一致性等问题。道路交通事故评价方法在数据共享平台建设、数据完整性、数据时空相关性和数据潜在特征分析等方面还存在诸多有待深入研究的问题;运行速度分析方法在精细数据获取、模型开发与标定和零碰撞路段可靠性阈值筛选等方面尚需要持续深入研究;交通冲突分析方法在冲突样本量估计、动态交通冲突估计模型构建、交通冲突判别指标筛选以及驾驶人因对交通冲突建模影响方面也存在尚未解决的问题;驾驶行为分析方法需要在数据采集一致性、采集时长和评价指标一致性等方面达成共识。同时,随着智能网联技术的快速发展,未来会出现更多与道路交通安全运行有关的数据,这可能会改变人们对道路交通安全分析与评价方法的既有共识,也对开发新的道路交通安全分析与评价方法带来机遇和挑战。研究结果有助于全面掌握道路交通安全分析与评价方法理论体系、实现道路交通安全问题的准确评价。
Road traffic safety analyses and evaluation involve the entire process of road design,operation,maintenance,and reconstruction.The objective and content of road safety analysis and evaluation vary significantly in different stages and situations.Therefore,appropriate traffic safety analysis and evaluation methods must be selected for specific problems.To identify the characteristics and application of different road safety analysis and evaluation methods,in this study,four typical road traffic safety evaluation methods,including traffic crash statistics,vehicle operating speed,traffic conflict,and driving behavior analyses,were investigated.The characteristics and applications of different evaluation methods for data collection,characteristic indexing,modeling,and practical application,along with development trends,are summarized.In the literature,certain road traffic safety analysis and evaluation methods have formed relatively mature theoretical models and have been successfully applied to road traffic safety evaluations,such as methods based on traffic accident statistical and vehicle operating speed analyses.However,safety evaluation methods based on traffic conflicts and driving behavior have problems such as data sources and indicator consistency.There are still issues to be studied in the construction of data-sharing platforms,data integrity,temporal and spatial correlation of data,and analysis of data characteristics.The operational speed analysis method must be further studied in terms of precise data acquisition,model development and calibration,and zero-collision segment reliability threshold selection.In addition,traffic conflict analysis methods have unresolved problems in estimating conflict sample size statistics,estimating the construction of dynamic traffic conflict models,screening traffic conflict discrimination indicators,and assessing the impact of driver factors on traffic conflict modeling.Driving behavior analysis requires indepth research on data collection consistency,collection time,and
作者
吕能超
王玉刚
周颖
吴超仲
LYU Neng-chao;WANG Yu-gang;ZHOU Ying;WU Chao-zhong(Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;Second Highway Consultant Company Ltd.,CCCC,Wuhan 430056,Hubei,China;Wuhan Zhongjiao Traffic Engineering Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430005,Hubei,China)
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期183-201,共19页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52072290)
国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFB1600302)
湖北省杰出青年基金项目(2020CFA081)
关键词
交通工程
交通安全
综述
分析评价
事故统计
运行速度
交通冲突
驾驶行为
traffic engineering
traffic safety
review
analysis and evaluation
accident statistics
operating speed
traffic conflict
driving behavior
