摘要
文章基于20052017年省级面板数据,从结构与效率的双重视角考察了人口老龄化对服务业优化升级的影响。研究发现:(1)老龄化对服务业的优化升级具有显著正向影响及区域异质性,结构优化效应由东往西逐渐弱化,效率提升效应仅在东部和中部地区显现。(2)老龄化对服务业优化升级的影响具有鲜明的基于经济发展水平及人力资本水平的门槛特征,突破门槛后,老龄化的促进作用明显跃升,且结构优化的门槛更高,突破门槛后老龄化的边际效率更大。(3)突破结构优化门槛的省份均在东部地区,尚未突破门槛的省份主要位于中西部地区。文章认为,利用老龄化为服务业优化升级提供的"契机",发展生产性服务业及高端老年服务业,同时加快中西部地区的经济建设与教育投入,对实现经济高质量发展至关重要。
Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of the population aging on the optimization and upgrading of service industry from the perspective of structure and efficiency.The results show that:(1)the population aging has a significant positive impact on the optimization and upgrading of the service industry,which is heterogeneous across regions.The effect on the structural optimization is weaker in the west,where the effect on the efficiency improvement becomes insignificant.(2)The impact of the population aging on the optimization and upgrading of service industry has distinct thresholds along the levels of economic development and human capital.After breaking the thresholds,the positive impact of population aging increases substantially.The higher the threshold of structural optimization,the greater the marginal efficiency of the population aging after breaking the threshold.(3)The provinces that have broken the thresholds of structural optimization are all in the eastern region,while those having not broken the thresholds are mainly in the central and western regions.The paper holds that it is important to take the opportunity to develop productive service and high-end elderly service industry and speed up the economic construction and education investment in the central and western regions,in order to achieve high-quality economic development in those regions.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期101-113,128,共14页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金项目“基于双重资本深化的我国服务业劳动生产率提升路径研究”(编号:20CJL025)的阶段性成果
