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中国京津唐张地区时间上连续的重力变化与地震的孕育和发生 被引量:63
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作者 顾功叙 刘克人 +3 位作者 郑金涵 卢红艳 刘端法 JohnT.Kuo(郭宗汾) 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 1997年第18期1919-1930,共12页
近15年来,京津唐张地区发生了十几个4~5级的地震,通过对北京白家疃台观测到的时间连续重力变化资料的分析,伴随地震孕育和发生有关的重力变化基本图象已经呈现出来.由于对重力变化的观测一般在地表进行,明显的主要的干扰来自近地表水,... 近15年来,京津唐张地区发生了十几个4~5级的地震,通过对北京白家疃台观测到的时间连续重力变化资料的分析,伴随地震孕育和发生有关的重力变化基本图象已经呈现出来.由于对重力变化的观测一般在地表进行,明显的主要的干扰来自近地表水,深部地下流体分布在地壳所有深度上,而且也对孕震过程有响应.因此,地下流体对重力变化的影响是同等重要的.流体,包括近地表水和分布在地壳所有深度上的地下流体,对地震的孕育和发生的过程中局部重力变化所起的作用比我们以前认识的要重要得多.丰富的资料证明,似乎膨胀失稳(IPE)模式至少不适用于京津唐张地区地震的孕育与发生.为了更真实反映地震孕育和发生的物理过程,需要对原来提出的联合膨胀(CDM)模式进行修改.京津唐张地区的孕震区可以模拟成一个大的充满流体的多孔隙介质的受压体,它不仅包括未来破裂区外围的受压体也包括破裂区本身.包括未来破裂区外围的受压体受到变化相对比较小的现存区域应力场的作用,而未来破裂区涉及到非常高的局部应力集中,和/或超孔隙压的作用.用修改的联合膨胀模式(MCDM)和已知的该地区物理参数计算的重力变化形态与观测到的剩余重力变化很相象.很明显,剩余重力变化,除了对地震的孕育和发生产生响应外,主要是对近地表水和地下流体的响应,而? 展开更多
关键词 京津唐张地区 重力变化 地震观测 前兆事件
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北极偶极子异常与中国东北夏季降水 被引量:33
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作者 武炳义 张人禾 D'Arrigo Rosanne 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第12期1422-1428,共7页
揭示了夏季北极大气变率的偶极子结构异常,70°N以北夏季月平均海平面气压经验正交分析的第二模态可以刻画该偶极子异常的时-空变化特征,该模态解释了总方差的12.94%.该偶极子异常显示出准正压结构,两个相反的异常中心分别位于加拿... 揭示了夏季北极大气变率的偶极子结构异常,70°N以北夏季月平均海平面气压经验正交分析的第二模态可以刻画该偶极子异常的时-空变化特征,该模态解释了总方差的12.94%.该偶极子异常显示出准正压结构,两个相反的异常中心分别位于加拿大北极地区和波弗特海以及喀拉海与拉普捷夫海之间,夏季北极大气偶极子异常不同于冬季,反映了夏季极涡中心位置在北极东、西部之间的交替变化.当北极大气偶极子异常处于正位相时,对应北极极涡中心位于北极的西部,导致中国东北夏季降水增多.夏季北极大气偶极子异常有6a优势变化周期,并在近几十年来表现出年代际变化. 展开更多
关键词 偶极子异常 北极 夏季降水
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A Note on the South China Sea Shallow Interocean Circulation 被引量:31
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作者 方国洪 Dwi SUSANTO +3 位作者 Indroyono SOESILO 郑全安 乔方利 魏泽勋 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第6期946-954,共9页
The existing estimates of the volume transport from the Pacific Ocean to the South China Sea are summarized, showing an annual mean westward transport, with the Taiwan Strait outflow subtracted, of 3.5±2.0 Sv (1... The existing estimates of the volume transport from the Pacific Ocean to the South China Sea are summarized, showing an annual mean westward transport, with the Taiwan Strait outflow subtracted, of 3.5±2.0 Sv (1 Sv=-0^6 ma s^-1). Results of a global ocean circulation model show an annual mean transport of 3.9 Sv from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the South China Sea. The boreal winter transport is larger and exhibits a South China Sea branch of the Pacific-to-Indian Ocean throughflow, which originates from the western Philippine Sea toward the Indonesian Seas through the South China Sea, as well as through the Karimata and Mindoro Straits. The southwestward current near the continental slope of the northern South China Sea is shown to be a combination of this branch and the interior circulation gyre. This winter branch can be confirmed by trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters, which clearly show a flow from the Luzon Strait to the Karimata Strait in winter. In summer, the flow in the Karimata Strait is reversed. Numerical model results indicate that the Pacific water can enter the South China Sea and exit toward the Sulu Sea, but no observational evidence is available. The roles of the throughiiow branch in the circulation, water properties and air-sea exchange of the South China Sea, and in enhancing and regulating the volume transport and reducing the heat transport of the Indonesian Throughflow, are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 South China Sea interocean circulation branch of the Pacific-to-Indian Ocean throughflow Karimata Strait
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青藏高原东北部树木年轮记录揭示的最高最低温的非对称变化 被引量:19
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作者 勾晓华 陈发虎 +4 位作者 杨梅学 Gordon Jacoby 方克艳 田沁花 张永 《中国科学(D辑)》 CSCD 北大核心 2007年第11期1480-1492,共13页
江河源区自然环境严酷,生态系统脆弱.近年来由于该区域日趋严重的生态环境问题使之逐渐成为全社会所广泛关注的焦点地区.根据采自青藏高原东北部黄河源区西顷山和阿尼玛卿山的祁连园柏树轮样芯,重建了研究区过去近425a来冬半年的最低温... 江河源区自然环境严酷,生态系统脆弱.近年来由于该区域日趋严重的生态环境问题使之逐渐成为全社会所广泛关注的焦点地区.根据采自青藏高原东北部黄河源区西顷山和阿尼玛卿山的祁连园柏树轮样芯,重建了研究区过去近425a来冬半年的最低温和近700a来夏半年最高温.1578~1940年的近400a间研究区冬半年最低温度的波动较为平缓,但是自1941年来以来有急剧的升温趋势.夏半年最高温在20世纪末表现出明显的升温趋势.近425a来最高温和最低温的变化存在非对称现象.最高温和最低温在近425a来的变化非常相似,但最低温的变化比最高温的变化超前大约25a左右.如果在未来30a内最高温和最低温的变化保持过去近425a来的相关趋势,那么在未来30a内,最高温也将继续剧烈升温. 展开更多
关键词 青藏高原 树木年轮 最低温度 最高温度 非对称变化 升温
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Asymmetric variability between maximum and minimum temperatures in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau:Evidence from tree rings 被引量:19
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作者 Jacoby GORDON 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第1期41-55,共15页
Ecological systems in the headwaters of the Yellow River, characterized by hash natural environmental conditions, are very vulnerable to climatic change. In the most recent decades, this area greatly attracted the pub... Ecological systems in the headwaters of the Yellow River, characterized by hash natural environmental conditions, are very vulnerable to climatic change. In the most recent decades, this area greatly attracted the public's attention for its more and more deteriorating environmental conditions. Based on tree-ring samples from the Xiqing Mountain and A'nyêmagên Mountains at the headwaters of the Yellow River in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we reconstructed the minimum temperatures in the winter half year over the last 425 years and the maximum temperatures in the summer half year over the past 700 years in this region. The variation of minimum temperature in the winter half year during the time span of 1578―1940 was a relatively stable trend, which was followed by an abrupt warming trend since 1941. However, there is no significant warming trend for the maximum temperature in the summer half year over the 20th century. The asymmetric variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures were observed in this study over the past 425 years. During the past 425 years, there are similar variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures; however, the minimum temperatures vary about 25 years earlier compared to the maximum temperatures. If such a trend of variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures over the past 425 years continues in the future 30 years, the maximum temperature in this region will increase significantly. 展开更多
关键词 TIBETAN Plateau TREE-RING minimum TEMPERATURE maximum TEMPERATURE ASYMMETRIC VARIABILITY WARMING trend
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黄土高原秦安中新世黄土-古土壤序列的蜗牛化石初步研究 被引量:13
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作者 李丰江 吴乃琴 Denis-Didier Rousseau 《中国科学(D辑)》 CSCD 北大核心 2006年第5期438-444,共7页
通过对秦安中新世黄土-古土壤序列蜗牛化石的初步调查研究表明,在距今22~6.2Ma期间长达近16Ma的黄土-古土壤沉积发育过程中,无论黄土还是古土壤地层中都保存有较丰富的蜗牛化石种类,目前发现的15种蜗牛化石全部是陆生种类,化石个... 通过对秦安中新世黄土-古土壤序列蜗牛化石的初步调查研究表明,在距今22~6.2Ma期间长达近16Ma的黄土-古土壤沉积发育过程中,无论黄土还是古土壤地层中都保存有较丰富的蜗牛化石种类,目前发现的15种蜗牛化石全部是陆生种类,化石个体保存完整,为原地埋藏的种群,未发现水生的种类,多数为第四纪黄土.古土壤序列中的常见种:类,可划分为冷于和温湿两个生态类群,冷于类主要见于黄土地层中,温湿类主要分布于古土壤地层中.自中新世至第四纪期问,蜗牛化石Metodontia(间齿螺)类和Cathaica(华蜗牛)类的属种具:有明显的演化趋势,新的种类的出现和演化与这一时期大的气候环境的改变在时代上有较好的一致性,反映了蜗牛生态种类对全球,区域性环境格局变化的响应.初步研究结果表明,中新世黄土-古土壤序列与第四纪黄土-古土壤序列有着相似的沉积背景.研究结果为秦安中新世黄土-古土壤序列沉积环境、气候演化等提供了生物化石证据. 展开更多
关键词 蜗牛化石 中新世黄土 生物演化 沉积环境 黄土高原
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Arctic dipole anomaly and summer rainfall in Northeast China 被引量:14
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作者 WU BingYi ZHANG RenHe D'Arrigo ROSANNE 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第14期2222-2229,共8页
A dipole structure anomaly in summer Arctic atmospheric variability is identified in this study, which is characterized by the second mode of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of summer monthly mean sea lev... A dipole structure anomaly in summer Arctic atmospheric variability is identified in this study, which is characterized by the second mode of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of summer monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) north of 70°N, accounting for 12.94% of the variance. The dipole anom- aly shows a quasi-barotropic structure with opposite anomalous centers over the Canadian Arctic and the Beaufort Sea and between the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea. The dipole anomaly reflects alternating variations in location of the polar vortex between the western and eastern Arctic regions. The positive phase of the dipole anomaly corresponds to the center of the polar vortex over the western Arctic, leading to an increase in summer mean rainfall in Northeast China. The dipole anomaly has a pre- dominant 6-year periodicity, and shows interdecadal variations in recent decades. 展开更多
关键词 极地异常 北极 夏季 雨季 中国北方
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Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation 被引量:10
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作者 Jiping Liu Zhiqiang Chen +11 位作者 Yongyun Hu Yuanyuan Zhang Yifan Ding Xiao Cheng Qinghua Yang Lars Nerger Gunnar Spreen Radley Horton Jun Inoue Chaoyuan Yang Ming Li Mirong Song 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第1期63-72,共10页
Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice have captured attention and pose significant challenges to a variety of stakeholders. There is a rising demand for Arctic sea ice prediction at daily to seasonal time scales, which is ... Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice have captured attention and pose significant challenges to a variety of stakeholders. There is a rising demand for Arctic sea ice prediction at daily to seasonal time scales, which is partly a sea ice initial condition problem. Thus, a multivariate data assimilation that integrates sea ice observations to generate realistic and skillful model initialization is needed to improve predictive skill of Arctic sea ice. Sea ice data assimilation is a relatively new research area. In this review paper, we focus on two challenges for implementing multivariate data assimilation systems for sea ice forecast. First, to address the challenge of limited spatiotemporal coverage and large uncertainties of observations, we discuss sea ice parameters derived from satellite remote sensing that(1) have been utilized for improved model initialization, including concentration, thickness and drift, and(2) are currently under development with the potential for enhancing the predictability of Arctic sea ice, including melt ponds and sea ice leads. Second, to strive to generate the ‘‘best" estimate of sea ice initial conditions by combining model simulations/forecasts and observations, we review capabilities and limitations of different data assimilation techniques that have been developed and used to assimilate observed sea ice parameters in dynamical models. 展开更多
关键词 ARCTIC sea ice PREDICTION Remote sensing Data ASSIMILATION
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Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations 被引量:4
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作者 G.Jacoby N.Pederson R.D'A rrigo 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2003年第14期1474-1479,共6页
Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scale reconstructed and recorded temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic. One Mongolian proxy re... Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scale reconstructed and recorded temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic. One Mongolian proxy record for temperature extends back over 1000 years and several others are over 350 years in length. Precipitation reconstructions based on tree rings reflect recent increases but also indicate that the increases are within the long-term range of variations. Spectral analyses of recorded precipitation data and the reconstructions support the hypotheses of quasi-solar periodicity in precipitation variation, previously suggested by others. 展开更多
关键词 蒙古 年轮气候学 温度 降雨量 古气候 气候变化
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Observations of the Karimata Strait througflow from December 2007 to November 2008 被引量:10
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作者 SUSANTO R Dwi WEI Zexun +3 位作者 ADI Rameyo T FAN Bin LI Shujiang FANG Guohong 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第5期1-6,共6页
In order to quantitatively estimate the volume and property transports between the South China Sea and Indonesian Seas via the Karimata Strait, two trawi-resistant bottom mounts, with ADCPs embedded, were deployed in ... In order to quantitatively estimate the volume and property transports between the South China Sea and Indonesian Seas via the Karimata Strait, two trawi-resistant bottom mounts, with ADCPs embedded, were deployed in the strait to measure the velocity profile as part of the South China Sea-Indonesian Seas trans- port/exchange (SITE) program. A pair of surface and bottom acoustic modems was employed to transfer the measured velocity without recovering the mooring. The advantage and problems of the instruments in this field work are reported and discussed. The field observations confirm the existence of the South Chi- na Sea branch of Indonesian throughflow via the Karimata Strait with a stronger southward flow in boreal winter and weaker southward bottom flow in boreal summer, beneath the upper layer northward (reversal) flow. The estimate of the averaged volume, heat and freshwater transports from December 2007 to March 2008 (winter) is (-2.7±1.1)×10^6 m^3/s, (-0.30±0.11) PW, 2008 (summer) is (1.2±0.6)×10^6 m^3/s, (0.14±0.03) PW, (-0.18±0.07) × 106 m3/s and from May to September (0.12±0.04)×10^6 m^3/s and for the entire record from December 2007 to October 2008 is (-0.5±1.9)×10^6 m^3/s, (-0.05±0.22) PW, (-0.01±0.15)×10^6 m^3/s (nega- tive/positive represents southward/northward transport), respectively. The existence of southward bottom flow in boreal summer implies that the downward sea surface slope from north to south as found by Fang et al. (2010) for winter is a year-round phenomenon. 展开更多
关键词 Karimata Strait transport Indonesian throughflow ADCP measurement acoustic modem
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Preliminary study of mollusk fossils in the Qinan Miocene loess-soil sequence in western Chinese Loess Plateau 被引量:10
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作者 Denis-Didier Rousseau 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2006年第7期724-730,共7页
The first near continuous mollusk fossil record from the Qinan Miocene loess-soil se-quence is presented. Results show that mollusk species are abundant in the QA-I section between 22 and 6.2 Ma, and both loess layers... The first near continuous mollusk fossil record from the Qinan Miocene loess-soil se-quence is presented. Results show that mollusk species are abundant in the QA-I section between 22 and 6.2 Ma, and both loess layers and soil layers yield mollusk fossil individuals. All mollusk species are terrestrial and well preserved in the section. Most species are identical to those identified in the Quaternary loess-soil sequence of the Loess Plateau. The thermo-humidiphilous group generally is distributed in soil layers, whereas cold-aridiphilous group can be observed in loess layers. From the Miocene to Quaternary, the occurrence and divergence of new species of Metodontia and Cathaica correspond to the crucial periods of regional and global environmental changes, indicating that mol-lusk species are sensitive to environmental variations. Preliminary study on the QA-I mollusk record indicates that the Qinan Miocene loess-soil sequence may have a similar sedimentary environment to the Quaternary loess-soil sequence of the Loess Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 MOLLUSK fossils MIOCENE loess LOESS Plateau MOLLUSK evolution SEDIMENTARY environment.
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A Possible Mechanism to Thin Lithosphere of the North China Craton: Insights from Cretaceous Mafic Dikes in the Jiaodong Pensinsula 被引量:8
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作者 MA Liang JIANG Shaoyong +1 位作者 Albrecht W.Hofmann XU Yigang 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第S1期106-108,共3页
The North China Craton(NCC)is a classic case of the destruction of an ancient craton,in that it records the loss of more than 100 km of ancient refractory lithospheric mantle during the Mesozoic(e.g.,Menzies et al.,19... The North China Craton(NCC)is a classic case of the destruction of an ancient craton,in that it records the loss of more than 100 km of ancient refractory lithospheric mantle during the Mesozoic(e.g.,Menzies et al.,1993).This 展开更多
关键词 Insights from Cretaceous Mafic Dikes in the Jiaodong Pensinsula NCC
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Frontsand strong currents of the upper southeast Indian Ocean 被引量:7
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作者 HE Zhigang DONG Zhaoqian YUAN Xiaojun 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第2期1-24,共24页
Hydrographic data, ADCP velocity and sea level anomaly derived from the satellite altimeter have been jointly analyzed in the southeast lndian Ocean. Results show the locations and orientations of the major oceanic fr... Hydrographic data, ADCP velocity and sea level anomaly derived from the satellite altimeter have been jointly analyzed in the southeast lndian Ocean. Results show the locations and orientations of the major oceanic fronts as well as the characteristics of the currents within these fronts in the area. Double subtropical fronts are observed in the section along 120°E, which conflicts with the frontal structure frequently observed before the North Subtropical Front (NSTF) and South Subtropical Front (SSTF) merge into a single STF between 110°-115°E. The Subantarctic Front (SAF), influenced by the out-of-phase double eddies, runs across 48°S three times between 120° and 127°E. The surface current within the SAF is strengthened up to 105.4 cm/s by the geostrophic effect of these eddies. Furthermore eddies may cause the strong current to split up into two branches within the SAF. The SAF and the primary polar front (PFI) can be identified individually in the ADCP data with a separation distance of about 0.3° at latitude between 140° and 145°E, although they cannot be identified separately in the low-resolution hydrographic data. The different thcrmohaline characteristics of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and Modified Circumpolar Deep Water (MCDW) result in the formation of Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) in the southeast Indian Ocean. It consistently turns northward along the east flank of the Kerguclen Plateau after it runs through the Princess Elizabeth Trough and turns southward sharply north of 60°S with a little seasonal variations. It is shown that the locations and orientations of the SAK the primary PF and SACCF in the ACC of the southeast Indian Ocean can be identified more precisely by the current distribution derived from ADCP data than by hydrographic data, because these fronts are usually accompanied by strong currents. However, the locations and orientations of the STF and the secondary PF are more difficult to be identified through current data, 展开更多
关键词 southeast Indian Ocean FRONT jet
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大气能量传播及不同纬度间大气相互作用的研究进展 被引量:7
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作者 杨崧 邓开强 +1 位作者 Ting Mingfang 胡春迪 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2015年第6期999-1018,共20页
早期的理论分析认为大气中临界纬度的存在使得热带-热带外的大气活动互不影响。然而,大量的观测事实表明中低纬度大气运动存在着明显的动力联系。为了帮助人们更好地理解大气中的遥相关现象,在大量文献的基础上,综述了几种波能量传播理... 早期的理论分析认为大气中临界纬度的存在使得热带-热带外的大气活动互不影响。然而,大量的观测事实表明中低纬度大气运动存在着明显的动力联系。为了帮助人们更好地理解大气中的遥相关现象,在大量文献的基础上,综述了几种波能量传播理论:(1)大圆理论指出了罗斯贝波在球形大气中的传播特征;(2)西风通道理论发现了中纬度瞬变扰动越赤道传播的"走廊";(3)能量堆积-波列发射理论揭示了热带扰动影响到更高纬度大气活动的可能过程;(4)赤道波侧向膨胀理论则利用转折纬度的概念更进一步解释了这种中低纬度大气相互作用的物理机制;(5)经向基本流理论则认为在一定的条件下定常波可以穿过热带东风带传播到另一半球。此外,文中还回顾了在波-流相互作用诊断方面的研究进展,尤其是关于罗斯贝波、惯性重力波和赤道开尔文波。大气能量的经向传播具有显著的年变化和年际变化,这与ENSO、西风急流、大洋中部槽等的变化密切相关。 展开更多
关键词 大圆路径 西风通道 能量堆积 波膨胀 经向基本流
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西昆仑阿什库勒火山群地质特征和活动分期 被引量:7
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作者 许建东 赵波 +2 位作者 Hemming SINDNEY 陈正全 张柳毅 《岩石学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第12期3521-3530,共10页
阿什库勒火山群作为青藏高原内最新期的北部昆仑火山群的典型代表,长期以来一直受到国内外地学界的广泛关注。我们通过对阿什库勒盆地火山区的野外地质地貌考察,研究了阿什库勒盆地内第四纪火山活动历史,完成了阿什库勒火山群重要火山... 阿什库勒火山群作为青藏高原内最新期的北部昆仑火山群的典型代表,长期以来一直受到国内外地学界的广泛关注。我们通过对阿什库勒盆地火山区的野外地质地貌考察,研究了阿什库勒盆地内第四纪火山活动历史,完成了阿什库勒火山群重要火山锥体的1∶2000火山机构图。同时,对系统采集于不同火山机构和部位的20个火山岩样品进行了系列Ar-Ar同位素年代测试分析,获得了翔实的研究区不同火山岩石单元的绝对年龄数据。结合野外地质地貌考察结果,讨论了阿什库勒盆地的火山活动的第四纪时期活动历史,并将主要活动时期进一步划分为早更新世早期、早更新世中期、中更新世早期、中更新世晚期、晚更新世期和全新世期六期,取得了与前人有关该研究区火山活动历史和活动期次类似的划分方案,并补充了新的年代学证据。研究成果弥补了藏北高原西部由于恶劣工作环境而造成的第四纪火山学研究的不足。 展开更多
关键词 火山地质 40AR/39AR年龄 火山活动历史 阿什库勒火山群 西昆仑
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2021年河南极端降水的气候变化归因:对流组织的影响 被引量:6
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作者 秦汉 袁为 +5 位作者 王君 陈阳 戴攀曦 Adam H.SOBEL 孟智勇 聂绩 《中国科学:地球科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第10期1863-1872,共10页
本文研究了河南“21·7”极端降水事件的气候归因.研究利用区域云解析模式模拟,对该事件采用了基于准地转单柱模拟方法的条件归因.在准地转单柱模拟中,大尺度垂直运动是由简化的准地转垂直速度方程在由动力强迫(基于观测的再分析数... 本文研究了河南“21·7”极端降水事件的气候归因.研究利用区域云解析模式模拟,对该事件采用了基于准地转单柱模拟方法的条件归因.在准地转单柱模拟中,大尺度垂直运动是由简化的准地转垂直速度方程在由动力强迫(基于观测的再分析数据)和潜热释放(基于云解析模拟)共同作用下计算得到.研究发现,气候变暖可能导致区域尺度和台站尺度强降水的显著增强,分别为10~14%K^(-1)(取决于对流组织)和7~9%K^(-1).通过比较无对流组织、由地表温度异常导致的团状对流组织和由垂直风切变导致的线状对流组织这三种情况,我们进一步探讨对流组织如何影响极端降水及其气候响应.研究发现,线状对流对大尺度动力强迫更为敏感,其造成的极端降水在区域和台站尺度上都较无组织的对流更强;而团状对流较无组织的对流只稍微增强了台站尺度极端降水.由于线状对流具有更强的潜热反馈,其区域尺度极端降水气候敏感性较无组织对流大2~3%K^(-1).同时,模拟结果没有发现台站尺度极端降水气候敏感性对于对流组织的系统性依赖. 展开更多
关键词 极端降水 全球变暖 气候变化归因 对流组织 小时降水量
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Decadal Forecasts of Large Earthquakes along the Northern San Andreas Fault System, California: Increased Activity on Regional Creeping Faults Prior to Major and Great Events
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作者 Lynn R. Sykes 《International Journal of Geosciences》 CAS 2024年第2期204-230,共27页
The three largest earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults. Increased seismicity, double-difference precise loc... The three largest earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults. Increased seismicity, double-difference precise locations of earthquakes since 1968, geodetic data and fault offsets for the 1906 great shock are used to re-examine the timing and locations of possible future large earthquakes. The physical mechanisms of regional faults like the Calaveras, Hayward and Sargent, which exhibit creep, differ from those of the northern San Andreas, which is currently locked and is not creeping. Much decadal forerunning activity occurred on creeping faults. Moderate-size earthquakes along those faults became more frequent as stresses in the region increased in the latter part of the cycle of stress restoration for major and great earthquakes along the San Andreas. They may be useful for decadal forecasts. Yearly to decadal forecasts, however, are based on only a few major to great events. Activity along closer faults like that in the two years prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta shock needs to be examined for possible yearly forerunning changes to large plate boundary earthquakes. Geodetic observations are needed to focus on identifying creeping faults close to the San Andreas. The distribution of moderate-size earthquakes increased significantly since 1990 along the Hayward fault but not adjacent to the San Andreas fault to the south of San Francisco compared to what took place in the decades prior to the three major historic earthquakes in the region. It is now clear from a re-examination of the 1989 mainshock that the increased level of moderate-size shocks in the one to two preceding decades occurred on nearby East Bay faults. Double-difference locations of small earthquakes provide structural information about faults in the region, especially their depths. The northern San Andreas fault is divided into several strongly coupled segments based on differences in seismicity. 展开更多
关键词 San Andreas and Hayward Faults California Fault Creep Forecasts Double-Difference Relocations
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全球变暖:行动还是等待? 被引量:6
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作者 W.S.Broecker 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2006年第13期1489-1499,共11页
人类怎样应对大气CO2浓度的持续升高,仍有较大的分歧.一部分人认为,除非全球升温更趋显著,否则各项耗资巨大的措施应推延执行;而另一部分人则认为,即便是马上采取措施,大气中CO2浓度也可能已达到无法接受的水平,因而必须即刻采取各种措... 人类怎样应对大气CO2浓度的持续升高,仍有较大的分歧.一部分人认为,除非全球升温更趋显著,否则各项耗资巨大的措施应推延执行;而另一部分人则认为,即便是马上采取措施,大气中CO2浓度也可能已达到无法接受的水平,因而必须即刻采取各种措施.我本人属于后者.CO2的有些影响已经达到地球轨道周期性变化、海洋环流重新组合或太阳辐射变化所导致的效应.这些效应用模型无法揭示出来,而在古气候记录里被清楚地保存下来.这使我觉得这些模型缺乏自然界客观存在的反馈和放大效应,因而很可能低估了CO2浓度升高的影响,而不是高估.世界能源消费将持续增长,煤炭由于其廉价性和丰富的蕴藏将成为未来主要的能源.我同时认为,CO2的固定和储藏在阻止大气CO2浓度的升高方面有关键作用.所幸这些固定和储藏在技术和经济层面上都是可行的.目前面临的一个重大问题是,在CO2浓度达到自然界无法承受的水平之前,全球能否一起合作,使减缓措施尽快付诸行动. 展开更多
关键词 全球变暖 CO2吸存 古气候
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Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales 被引量:1
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作者 Carl J.Schreck III Frederic Vitart +16 位作者 Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp James Darlow Russell Elsberry Jon Gottschalck Paul Gregory Kurt Hansen Justyn Jackson Matthew A.Janiga Philip J.Klotzbach Chia-Ying Lee Lindsey Long Masuo Nakano Kazuto Takemura Yuhei Takaya Michael J.Ventrice Zhuo Wang 《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》 2023年第2期136-150,共15页
This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of... This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Pacific by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been documented.Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts.In addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs.Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts.The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive verification studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. 展开更多
关键词 Tropical cyclones Subseasonal Forecasts Hurricanes MJO
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Zircon within chromitite requires revision of the tectonic history of the Eoarchean Itsaq Gneiss complex,Greenland
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作者 Hikaru Sawada Tomoaki Morishita +6 位作者 Adrien Vezinet Richard Stern Kenichiro Tani Ikuya Nishio Kanta Takahashi D.Graham Pearson Kristoffer Szilas 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期273-285,共13页
The Ujaragssuit Nunat layered(UNL)unit in the Itsaq Gneiss Complex,west Greenland,has been consid-ered to contain one of the oldest chromitites on Earth based on~ca.4.1 Ga Hadean whole rock Pt-Os model ages and ca.3.8... The Ujaragssuit Nunat layered(UNL)unit in the Itsaq Gneiss Complex,west Greenland,has been consid-ered to contain one of the oldest chromitites on Earth based on~ca.4.1 Ga Hadean whole rock Pt-Os model ages and ca.3.81 Ga zircon U-Pb age of the surrounding orthogneiss.This study obtained zircon from the chromitite within this unit as well as granitoid sheets that intruded into the UNL unit.In-situ U-Pb-Hf-O isotope measurements were made on the zircons.Zircons from both the chromitite and the intrusive granitoids show concordant U-Pb ages of ca.2.97-2.95 Ga.In contrast,Hf and 0 isotopic anal-yses indicate that zircons in the chromitites have a different origin from those in the intrusive granitoids.Zircons from granitoids yielded Th/U ratios higher than 0.2,initial Hf isotope ratios of 0.2805-0.2807(i.e,initial:Hf value of-11 to-5),andδ^(18)O values of mostly 6.0‰-7.0‰,which are typical for felsic igneous rocks in Archean continental crust.The least altered zircons from a chromitite exhibited initial Hf isotope ratios of 0.28078-0.28084(i.e.,initial:Hf value of-1.1 to-0.4),close the chondritic value at ca.3.0 Ga and the depleted mantle at ca.3.2 Ga.These zircons also haveδ^(18)O values of 4.2‰6.1‰which correspond to typical mantle values.The other chromitite zircons yielded Th/U ratios lower than 0.1,and Hf and 0 isotopic compositions ranging between the least altered zircons and the intrusive granitoid zir-cons.These results indicate that the zircons in the chromitites crystallized before or during the 2.97-2.95 Ga granitoid intrusion and most of the zircons were altered by subsequent metasomatism.Furthermore,the present results suggest that zircons in the chromitites originally had depleted Hf iso-topic compositions at ca.3.2-3.0 Ga.This can be explained by two different models of the evolution of the UNL unit.One is that if the UNL unit was formed at>3.81 Ga as previously thought,with the zircons in the chromitites subsequently being precipitated by ca.3.2-2.95 Ga during metamorphism or metaso-matism 展开更多
关键词 ARCHEAN Itsaq gneiss complex Ultramafic rock METASOMATISM
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