Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the per...Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the perfect model assumption. SVs and CNOPs have been utilized to generate the initial pertur-bations for ensemble prediction experiments. The results are compared for forecast lengths of up to 14 d. It is found that the forecast skill of samples,in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP,is com-paratively higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range (day 6―day 14). This conclusion is valid under the condition that analysis error is a kind of fast-growing ones regardless of its magnitude,whose nonlinear growth is faster than that of SV in the later part of the forecast. Fur-thermore,similarity index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis are performed to explain the above numerical results.展开更多
Based on summarizing previous achievements and characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role using data as long and new as possible, the onset of Asian-Australian ＂land bridge＂ in the onset of summer monsoon ...Based on summarizing previous achievements and characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role using data as long and new as possible, the onset of Asian-Australian ＂land bridge＂ in the onset of summer monsoon are further discussed. In particular, the earliest onset area of Asian summer monsoon is comparatively analyzed, and the sudden and progressive characteristics of the onset of summer monsoon in different regions are discussed, Furthermore, the relationships among such critical events during the onset of Asian summer monsoon as the splitting of subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, the initiation of convection over Indo-China Peninsula, the westward advance, reestablishment of South Asian High, and the rapid northward progression of convection originated from Sumatra in early summer are studied. The important impact of the proper collocation of she latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula and the sensible heating over Indian Peninsula on the splitting of the subtropical high belt, the deepening of BOB trough, the activating of Sri Lanka vortex （twin vortexes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres）, and the subsequent onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are emphasized.展开更多
Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961―2004. The results show that both rainfall amoun...Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961―2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events (an event of 1―6 hours in duration), while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is ac-cumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events (an event that lasts longer than 6 hours). In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of long-duration events has decreased.展开更多
Using radiosonde and satellite observations, we investigated the trends of air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） in comparison with those over other regions in the same latitudes from 1979 to 2002. I...Using radiosonde and satellite observations, we investigated the trends of air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） in comparison with those over other regions in the same latitudes from 1979 to 2002. It is shown that Over the TP, the trends of air temperature changes in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere were out of phase with those in the lower to middle troposphere. Air temperature decreased and a decreasing trend appeared in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. The amplitude of the annual or seasonal mean temperature decreases over the TP was larger than that over the whole globe. In the lower to middle troposphere over the TP, temperature increased, and the increasing trend was stronger than that over the non-plateau regions in the same latitudes in the eastern part of China. Meanwhile, an analysis of the satellite observed ozone data in the same period of 1979-2002 shows that over the TP, the total ozone amount declined in all seasons, and the ozone depleted the most compared with the situations in other regions in the same latitudes. It is proposed that the difference between the ozone depletion over the TP and that over other regions in the same latitudes may lead to the difference in air temperature changes. Because of the aggravated depletion of ozone over the TP, less （more） ultraviolet radiation was absorbed in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere （lower to middle troposphere） over the TP, which favored a stronger cooling in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, and an intenser heating in the lower to middle troposphere over the TP. Therefore, the comparatively more depletion of ozone over the TP is possibly a reason for the difference between the air temperature changes over the TP and those over other regions in the same latitudes.展开更多
Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006, the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the ...Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006, the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event. The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric, which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event. The effects of rainfall intensity, duration and peak time, as well as topography, are also considered. It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain, such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains, and the Yungui Plateau. The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall, but the regional differences are weaker. The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry. The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out, which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak. These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models. Moreover, the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards, such as collapses, landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.展开更多
The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic （QG） model in a...The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic （QG） model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range （14 days） are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors （SVs）. 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear superior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts.展开更多
Because the real atmosphere is non-uniformly saturated, the generalized potential temperature is introduced. The convective vorticity vector, which can depict the occurrence and development of mesoscale deep convectiv...Because the real atmosphere is non-uniformly saturated, the generalized potential temperature is introduced. The convective vorticity vector, which can depict the occurrence and development of mesoscale deep convective systems, is modified and re-derived in a nonuniformly saturated moist atmosphere (C*). Then, a case study is performed for a frontal rainfall event which occurred near the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. The diagnostic results of C* show that, in the lower troposphere, the vertical component of C* (Cz*) can diagnose developments and movements of precipitation and convection better than those of Cm (Cmz, in saturated moist flow) and C (Cz, in dry flow). Cz* is a good predictor for precipitation analyses as well.展开更多
The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. ...The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. Results show that the winter hemisphere annular mode has closer connection to Chinese climate than the summer one, e.g., the wetting JJA (June-July-August) rainfall trend along the Yangtze River valley and the associated temperature trends are significantly linearly congruent with the trend of the southern annular mode, while the JFM (January-February-March) climate trends are closely linked to the northern annular mode. The seasonal differences of a meridional wave-train-like chain across the equatorial Pacific associated with the annular modes are responsible for the seasonal-dependent connections to Chinese climate.展开更多
The Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) system is used for orographic snowpack enhancement.The model has three nested domains with the grid spacing of 18,6 and 2 km.To evaluate the simulations of wi...The Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) system is used for orographic snowpack enhancement.The model has three nested domains with the grid spacing of 18,6 and 2 km.To evaluate the simulations of winter orographic clouds and precipitation,comparisons are made between model simulations and observations to determine how the model simulates the cloud distribution,cloud height,cloud vertical profiles and snow precipitation.The simulated results of the 02:00 UTC cycling with 2-km resolution are used in the comparison.The observations include SNOTEL,ceilometer,sounding and satellite data,from the ground to air.The verification of these observations indicates that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) RT-FDDA system provides good simulations.It is better to use data within the forecast period of 2-16 h simulations.Although the horizontal wind component near the ground has some bias,and the simulated clouds are a little higher and have a little more coverage than observed,the simulated precipitation is a little weaker than observed.The results of the comparison show that the WRF RT-FDDA model provides good simulations and can be used in orographic cloud seeding.展开更多
By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets (1000-10hPa, 2.5°× 2.5°), the characteristics have been analyzed of the structure and evolution of an easterly vortex over the tropical upper troposphere ...By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets (1000-10hPa, 2.5°× 2.5°), the characteristics have been analyzed of the structure and evolution of an easterly vortex over the tropical upper troposphere relating to the east-west direction shift of the subtropical anticyclone over the Western Pacific Ocean. It is shown that there exists a westward shift simultaneously between the anticyclone and the vortex locating south of it. The anticyclone retreats eastward abnormally while the easterly encounters with the westerly around the same longitudes as they move from the opposite directions. The former is an upper weather system, extending from mid-troposphere to the height of 50 hPa with the center locating on 200 hPa. The vertical thermal distribution illustrates the characteristics of being"warm in the upper layer but cold in the lower layer". The divergence effect and the vertical motion change largely within the east and west sides of the easterly vortex and ascending branch transforms to descending branch near its center.展开更多
As a powerful tool to diagnose vertical motion, frontogenesis, and secondary circulation, the Q vector and its divergence are widely used. However, little attention has been given to the curl of Q vector. In this pape...As a powerful tool to diagnose vertical motion, frontogenesis, and secondary circulation, the Q vector and its divergence are widely used. However, little attention has been given to the curl of Q vector. In this paper, a new set of analyses combining the divergence of the Q vector （DQ） with the vertical component of the curl of the Q vector （VQ） is applied to a Northeastern cold vortex rainfall case. From the derivation, it was found that the expressions of the Q vectors and their divergences in saturated moist flow （DQm） differ from those of dry and unsaturated moist atmosphere （DQ）, while the VQs of various background flows are exactly the same, which largely simplified the analyses. This case study showed that, compared with the DQ, not only can the DQm diagnose precipitation more effectively, but the VQ may also be indicative of precipitation （especially for heavy rainfall and strong convection） because of its direct, close relationship with ageostrophic motion. Thus, the VQ may be computed and analyzed with ease, and may serve as a useful tool for analyses of precipitation and strong convective svstems.展开更多
In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of, the summer climate in eastern China occurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipitatio...In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of, the summer climate in eastern China occurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipitation appeared in the southern region of eastern China （namely South China）, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched farther westward with a larger south-north extent, and a strengthened anticyclone at 850 hPa appeared in the northwestern Pacific. The decadal climate shift of the summer precipitation in South China was accompanied with decadal changes of the Eurasian snow cover in boreal spring and sea surface temperature （SST） in western North Pacific in boreal summer in the late 1980s. After the late 1980s, the spring Eurasian snow cover apparently became less and the summer SST in western North Pacific increased obviously, which were well correlated with the increase of the South China precipitation. The physical processes are also investigated on how the summer precipitation in China was affected by the spring Eurasian snow cover and summer SST in western North Pacific. The change of the spring Eurasian snow cover could excite a wave-train in higher latitudes, which lasted from spring to summer. Because of the wave-train, an abnormal high appeared over North China and a weak depression over South China, leading to more precipitation in South China. The increase of the summer SST in the western North Pacific reduced the land-sea thermal contrast and thus weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, also leading to more precipitation in South China.展开更多
Winter wheat is the main food crop in China. Gansu Province is a traditional winter wheat growing area, and its planting range is limited by the thermal conditions of winter. The average temperature in Gansu Province ...Winter wheat is the main food crop in China. Gansu Province is a traditional winter wheat growing area, and its planting range is limited by the thermal conditions of winter. The average temperature in Gansu Province increased by 0.28°C per decade, higher than the China’s and global average, and the warming in winter was more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to study the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat planting in Gansu. In this paper, the maximum entropy model Maxent and Arcgis software are used to select six major climatic factors including annual total radiation, annual precipitation, the warmest monthly average temperature, the coldest monthly average temperature, annual average temperature, and annual extreme minimum temperature, which construct winter wheat planting distribution-climate relationship model that studies the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat during the period 1961-2015. Studies have shown that the average cold weather and annual extreme minimum temperature are the most important climatic factors affecting winter wheat in Gansu, which can reflect the low temperature conditions that winter wheat can tolerate. However, the main winter wheat planting areas in Gansu Province are distributed in arid and semi-arid rain-fed agriculture areas. Precipitation and total annual radiation are also very important constraints. At the same time, climate change has little effect on winter wheat in Gansu Province, and the area of suitable area fluctuates slightly. It shows moderate adaptation in each evaluation period.展开更多
CTUsing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） optimal typhoon tracks data and the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis, an investigation is made on the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation （APO） in relation to synchronous air circ...CTUsing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） optimal typhoon tracks data and the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis, an investigation is made on the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation （APO） in relation to synchronous air circulation from the coastal waters of East Asia to western North Pacific （WNP）, along with a further exploration on the relationship between the APO and the tropical cyclone （TC） activities over the coastal waters of China. The results show that there exists a strong correlation between the APO inten-sity and TC activities over the WNP and coastal waters of eastern China （CWEC） during summer. When the APO is stronger （weaker）, the TC activities over the WNP are located in a more westward （eastward） and northward （southward） position and the TC number over the CWEC greatly increases （decreases）. Meanwhile, in stronger （weaker） APO years, the atmospheric circulation over the CWEC is manifested by a low-level anomalous cyclonic （anticyclonic） circulation, a decreasing （an increasing） vertical shear of zonal wind and strengthened （weakened） convection. These features are favorable （unfavorable） for the mainte-nance and development of the TC. The APO also modulates the direction of the air current that steers the movement of the TC. Corresponding to a stronger （weaker） APO, the WNP subtropical high appears more northward （southward） and eastward （westward）, with the weakening （strengthening） of the easterly wind south of the high. This feature favors the TC moving at more northern （southern） latitudes, leading to an increase （a decrease） of the number of the TCs into the CWEC. Moreover, the APO also affects the atmospheric circulation over the South China Sea and the tropical WNP where the TC is originated. Corre-sponding to a stronger （weaker） APO, the monsoon trough over these areas appears northward （southward） and westward （eastward）, which favors an increase （a decrease） of the TC number over the CWEC.展开更多
The cloud optical depth(COD) is one of the important parameters used to characterize atmospheric clouds. We analyzed the seasonal variations in the COD over East Asia in 2011 using cloud mode data from the AERONET(Aer...The cloud optical depth(COD) is one of the important parameters used to characterize atmospheric clouds. We analyzed the seasonal variations in the COD over East Asia in 2011 using cloud mode data from the AERONET(Aerosol Robotic Network) ground-based observational network. The applicability of the MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) COD product was verified and compared with the AERONET cloud mode dataset. There was a good correlation between the AERONET and the MODIS. The spatial and temporal distribution and trends in the COD over China were then analyzed using MODIS satellite data from 2003 to 2016. The seasonal changes in the AERONET data and the time sequence variation of the satellite data suggest that the seasonal variations in the COD are significant. The result shows that the COD first decreases and then increases with the season in northern China, and reaches the maximum in summer and minimum in winter.However, the spatial distribution change is just the opposite in southern China. The spatial variation trend shows the COD in China decreases first with time and gradually increases after 2014. And the trend of COD in the western and central China is consistent with that in China. While the trend of COD shows a continuously increasing over time in northeast China and the Pearl River Delta.展开更多
Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Ka...Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme and Betts-Miller （BM） scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded. Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.展开更多
By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the qua...By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the quasi-horizontal movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone(shortened as WPS A) during 22-25 June 2003.The relevant mechanisms are discussed as well.It is shown that the distribution and intensity of the non-adiabatic effect near the EV result in the anomalous eastward retreat of the WPSA.The WPSA prefers extending to the colder region,i.e.,it moves toward the region in which the non-adiabatic heating is weakening or the cooling is strengthening.During the WPSA retreat,the apparent changes of non-adiabatic heating illustrate the characteristics of enhanced cooling in the east side of the EV.Meanwhile,the cooling in the west side exhibits a weakened eastward trend,most prominently at 300 hPa in the troposphere.The evidence on the factors causing the change in thermal condition is found:the most important contribution to the heating-rate trend is the vertical transport term,followed in turn by the local change in the heating rate term and the horizontal advection term.As a result,the atmospheric non-adiabatic heating generated by the vertical transport and local change discussed above is mainly connected to the retreat of the WPSA.展开更多
Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over China's Mainland in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about ...Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over China's Mainland in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about large scale subsidence, then why could deep moist convection occur and where does the water vapor come from？ In this paper, a deep convective precipitation case that happened on 2 August 2003 is studied in order to address these two questions. First, the characteristics of the TCP event are analyzed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite data, automatic weather station observations, and the data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Second, water vapor sources are identified through examining surface evaporation, water vapor advection, and water vapor flux divergence calculated by using a regionally averaged water vapor budget equation. Furthermore, using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM）, contributions of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the TCP are compared through four sensitivity experiments. The results show that in the regions controlled by the WPSH, surface temperature rises rapidly after sunrise. Upon receiving enough sensible heat, the air goes up and leads to convergence in the lower atmosphere. Then the water vapor assembled from the surroundings and the ground surface is transported to the upper levels, and a favorable environment for the TCP forms. A model data diagnosis indicates that about half of precipitable water comes from the convergence of horizontal fluxes of water vapor, and the other half from surface evaporation, while little is from advection. Additional sensitivity experiments prove that both sensible and latent heating are essential for the onset of the TCP. The sensible heat flux triggers thermodynamic ascending motion, and the latent heat flux provides water vapor, but the contribution to TCP from the latter is a little smaller than that from the former.展开更多
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming.However,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer ...The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming.However,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and Europe.However,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting seasons.Therefore,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more prominence.Emerging satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the Arctic.This paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean.Moreover,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.展开更多
基金the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No.2006CB400503)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KZCX3-SW-230)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40221503 and 40675030)
文摘Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the perfect model assumption. SVs and CNOPs have been utilized to generate the initial pertur-bations for ensemble prediction experiments. The results are compared for forecast lengths of up to 14 d. It is found that the forecast skill of samples,in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP,is com-paratively higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range (day 6―day 14). This conclusion is valid under the condition that analysis error is a kind of fast-growing ones regardless of its magnitude,whose nonlinear growth is faster than that of SV in the later part of the forecast. Fur-thermore,similarity index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis are performed to explain the above numerical results.
基金the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant Nos. 2006CB403607 the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40305005 and 40135020.
文摘Based on summarizing previous achievements and characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role using data as long and new as possible, the onset of Asian-Australian ＂land bridge＂ in the onset of summer monsoon are further discussed. In particular, the earliest onset area of Asian summer monsoon is comparatively analyzed, and the sudden and progressive characteristics of the onset of summer monsoon in different regions are discussed, Furthermore, the relationships among such critical events during the onset of Asian summer monsoon as the splitting of subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, the initiation of convection over Indo-China Peninsula, the westward advance, reestablishment of South Asian High, and the rapid northward progression of convection originated from Sumatra in early summer are studied. The important impact of the proper collocation of she latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula and the sensible heating over Indian Peninsula on the splitting of the subtropical high belt, the deepening of BOB trough, the activating of Sri Lanka vortex （twin vortexes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres）, and the subsequent onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are emphasized.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40625014)
文摘Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961―2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events (an event of 1―6 hours in duration), while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is ac-cumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events (an event that lasts longer than 6 hours). In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of long-duration events has decreased.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40675058Open Laboratory of Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration under Grant No. LPM2008007
文摘Using radiosonde and satellite observations, we investigated the trends of air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） in comparison with those over other regions in the same latitudes from 1979 to 2002. It is shown that Over the TP, the trends of air temperature changes in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere were out of phase with those in the lower to middle troposphere. Air temperature decreased and a decreasing trend appeared in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. The amplitude of the annual or seasonal mean temperature decreases over the TP was larger than that over the whole globe. In the lower to middle troposphere over the TP, temperature increased, and the increasing trend was stronger than that over the non-plateau regions in the same latitudes in the eastern part of China. Meanwhile, an analysis of the satellite observed ozone data in the same period of 1979-2002 shows that over the TP, the total ozone amount declined in all seasons, and the ozone depleted the most compared with the situations in other regions in the same latitudes. It is proposed that the difference between the ozone depletion over the TP and that over other regions in the same latitudes may lead to the difference in air temperature changes. Because of the aggravated depletion of ozone over the TP, less （more） ultraviolet radiation was absorbed in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere （lower to middle troposphere） over the TP, which favored a stronger cooling in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, and an intenser heating in the lower to middle troposphere over the TP. Therefore, the comparatively more depletion of ozone over the TP is possibly a reason for the difference between the air temperature changes over the TP and those over other regions in the same latitudes.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951902)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41221064)
文摘Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006, the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event. The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric, which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event. The effects of rainfall intensity, duration and peak time, as well as topography, are also considered. It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain, such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains, and the Yungui Plateau. The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall, but the regional differences are weaker. The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry. The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out, which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak. These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models. Moreover, the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards, such as collapses, landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.
基金supported by State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Program for Basic Research of China (No. 2008LASWZI01)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-230)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40675030)
文摘The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic （QG） model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range （14 days） are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors （SVs）. 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear superior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant Nos. 40805001 and 40433016
文摘Because the real atmosphere is non-uniformly saturated, the generalized potential temperature is introduced. The convective vorticity vector, which can depict the occurrence and development of mesoscale deep convective systems, is modified and re-derived in a nonuniformly saturated moist atmosphere (C*). Then, a case study is performed for a frontal rainfall event which occurred near the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. The diagnostic results of C* show that, in the lower troposphere, the vertical component of C* (Cz*) can diagnose developments and movements of precipitation and convection better than those of Cm (Cmz, in saturated moist flow) and C (Cz, in dry flow). Cz* is a good predictor for precipitation analyses as well.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) under grant No. 2005CB321703the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40523001, 40221503, and 40625014the China Meteorological Administration under Grant No. GYHY200706010
文摘The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. Results show that the winter hemisphere annular mode has closer connection to Chinese climate than the summer one, e.g., the wetting JJA (June-July-August) rainfall trend along the Yangtze River valley and the associated temperature trends are significantly linearly congruent with the trend of the southern annular mode, while the JFM (January-February-March) climate trends are closely linked to the northern annular mode. The seasonal differences of a meridional wave-train-like chain across the equatorial Pacific associated with the annular modes are responsible for the seasonal-dependent connections to Chinese climate.
基金supported by the Wyoming Weather Modification Five-Year Pilot Project (WWMPP)supported by the National Basic Research and Development Program of China (2006BAC12B01)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40705002 and 40805003)the Social Commonweal Research Project (2004DIB3J116)the Special Foundation of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (2007Y003)
文摘The Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) system is used for orographic snowpack enhancement.The model has three nested domains with the grid spacing of 18,6 and 2 km.To evaluate the simulations of winter orographic clouds and precipitation,comparisons are made between model simulations and observations to determine how the model simulates the cloud distribution,cloud height,cloud vertical profiles and snow precipitation.The simulated results of the 02:00 UTC cycling with 2-km resolution are used in the comparison.The observations include SNOTEL,ceilometer,sounding and satellite data,from the ground to air.The verification of these observations indicates that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) RT-FDDA system provides good simulations.It is better to use data within the forecast period of 2-16 h simulations.Although the horizontal wind component near the ground has some bias,and the simulated clouds are a little higher and have a little more coverage than observed,the simulated precipitation is a little weaker than observed.The results of the comparison show that the WRF RT-FDDA model provides good simulations and can be used in orographic cloud seeding.
基金Open Research Fund for 2006 from State Key Laboratory Severe Weather, Chinese Academyof Meteorological Sciences (2006LASW08)Development and Planning Project for Key State FundamentalResearch (2006CB403607 2004CB418300)
文摘By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets (1000-10hPa, 2.5°× 2.5°), the characteristics have been analyzed of the structure and evolution of an easterly vortex over the tropical upper troposphere relating to the east-west direction shift of the subtropical anticyclone over the Western Pacific Ocean. It is shown that there exists a westward shift simultaneously between the anticyclone and the vortex locating south of it. The anticyclone retreats eastward abnormally while the easterly encounters with the westerly around the same longitudes as they move from the opposite directions. The former is an upper weather system, extending from mid-troposphere to the height of 50 hPa with the center locating on 200 hPa. The vertical thermal distribution illustrates the characteristics of being"warm in the upper layer but cold in the lower layer". The divergence effect and the vertical motion change largely within the east and west sides of the easterly vortex and ascending branch transforms to descending branch near its center.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grants Nos. 40633016 and 40433007
文摘As a powerful tool to diagnose vertical motion, frontogenesis, and secondary circulation, the Q vector and its divergence are widely used. However, little attention has been given to the curl of Q vector. In this paper, a new set of analyses combining the divergence of the Q vector （DQ） with the vertical component of the curl of the Q vector （VQ） is applied to a Northeastern cold vortex rainfall case. From the derivation, it was found that the expressions of the Q vectors and their divergences in saturated moist flow （DQm） differ from those of dry and unsaturated moist atmosphere （DQ）, while the VQs of various background flows are exactly the same, which largely simplified the analyses. This case study showed that, compared with the DQ, not only can the DQm diagnose precipitation more effectively, but the VQ may also be indicative of precipitation （especially for heavy rainfall and strong convection） because of its direct, close relationship with ageostrophic motion. Thus, the VQ may be computed and analyzed with ease, and may serve as a useful tool for analyses of precipitation and strong convective svstems.
基金Supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant No.2004CB418300 and National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675058.
文摘In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of, the summer climate in eastern China occurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipitation appeared in the southern region of eastern China （namely South China）, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched farther westward with a larger south-north extent, and a strengthened anticyclone at 850 hPa appeared in the northwestern Pacific. The decadal climate shift of the summer precipitation in South China was accompanied with decadal changes of the Eurasian snow cover in boreal spring and sea surface temperature （SST） in western North Pacific in boreal summer in the late 1980s. After the late 1980s, the spring Eurasian snow cover apparently became less and the summer SST in western North Pacific increased obviously, which were well correlated with the increase of the South China precipitation. The physical processes are also investigated on how the summer precipitation in China was affected by the spring Eurasian snow cover and summer SST in western North Pacific. The change of the spring Eurasian snow cover could excite a wave-train in higher latitudes, which lasted from spring to summer. Because of the wave-train, an abnormal high appeared over North China and a weak depression over South China, leading to more precipitation in South China. The increase of the summer SST in the western North Pacific reduced the land-sea thermal contrast and thus weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, also leading to more precipitation in South China.
文摘Winter wheat is the main food crop in China. Gansu Province is a traditional winter wheat growing area, and its planting range is limited by the thermal conditions of winter. The average temperature in Gansu Province increased by 0.28°C per decade, higher than the China’s and global average, and the warming in winter was more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to study the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat planting in Gansu. In this paper, the maximum entropy model Maxent and Arcgis software are used to select six major climatic factors including annual total radiation, annual precipitation, the warmest monthly average temperature, the coldest monthly average temperature, annual average temperature, and annual extreme minimum temperature, which construct winter wheat planting distribution-climate relationship model that studies the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat during the period 1961-2015. Studies have shown that the average cold weather and annual extreme minimum temperature are the most important climatic factors affecting winter wheat in Gansu, which can reflect the low temperature conditions that winter wheat can tolerate. However, the main winter wheat planting areas in Gansu Province are distributed in arid and semi-arid rain-fed agriculture areas. Precipitation and total annual radiation are also very important constraints. At the same time, climate change has little effect on winter wheat in Gansu Province, and the area of suitable area fluctuates slightly. It shows moderate adaptation in each evaluation period.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40921003the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No.2009CB421404the Basic Research Project for the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences under Grant No.2008LASWZI01
文摘CTUsing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） optimal typhoon tracks data and the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis, an investigation is made on the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation （APO） in relation to synchronous air circulation from the coastal waters of East Asia to western North Pacific （WNP）, along with a further exploration on the relationship between the APO and the tropical cyclone （TC） activities over the coastal waters of China. The results show that there exists a strong correlation between the APO inten-sity and TC activities over the WNP and coastal waters of eastern China （CWEC） during summer. When the APO is stronger （weaker）, the TC activities over the WNP are located in a more westward （eastward） and northward （southward） position and the TC number over the CWEC greatly increases （decreases）. Meanwhile, in stronger （weaker） APO years, the atmospheric circulation over the CWEC is manifested by a low-level anomalous cyclonic （anticyclonic） circulation, a decreasing （an increasing） vertical shear of zonal wind and strengthened （weakened） convection. These features are favorable （unfavorable） for the mainte-nance and development of the TC. The APO also modulates the direction of the air current that steers the movement of the TC. Corresponding to a stronger （weaker） APO, the WNP subtropical high appears more northward （southward） and eastward （westward）, with the weakening （strengthening） of the easterly wind south of the high. This feature favors the TC moving at more northern （southern） latitudes, leading to an increase （a decrease） of the number of the TCs into the CWEC. Moreover, the APO also affects the atmospheric circulation over the South China Sea and the tropical WNP where the TC is originated. Corre-sponding to a stronger （weaker） APO, the monsoon trough over these areas appears northward （southward） and westward （eastward）, which favors an increase （a decrease） of the TC number over the CWEC.
基金supported by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41590874)the National Key R & D Program Pilot Projects of China (No. 2016YFA0601901)the CAMS Basis Research Project (Nos. 2016Z001, 2014R17 & 2017Z011)
文摘The cloud optical depth(COD) is one of the important parameters used to characterize atmospheric clouds. We analyzed the seasonal variations in the COD over East Asia in 2011 using cloud mode data from the AERONET(Aerosol Robotic Network) ground-based observational network. The applicability of the MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) COD product was verified and compared with the AERONET cloud mode dataset. There was a good correlation between the AERONET and the MODIS. The spatial and temporal distribution and trends in the COD over China were then analyzed using MODIS satellite data from 2003 to 2016. The seasonal changes in the AERONET data and the time sequence variation of the satellite data suggest that the seasonal variations in the COD are significant. The result shows that the COD first decreases and then increases with the season in northern China, and reaches the maximum in summer and minimum in winter.However, the spatial distribution change is just the opposite in southern China. The spatial variation trend shows the COD in China decreases first with time and gradually increases after 2014. And the trend of COD in the western and central China is consistent with that in China. While the trend of COD shows a continuously increasing over time in northeast China and the Pearl River Delta.
基金Supported by Foundation from the Institute of Tropical & Marine Meteorology in 2004the National Basic Research Program of China (2004CB418306).
文摘Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme and Betts-Miller （BM） scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded. Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.
基金LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund(2014LASW-A03)National Science Foundation of China(41475041)
文摘By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the quasi-horizontal movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone(shortened as WPS A) during 22-25 June 2003.The relevant mechanisms are discussed as well.It is shown that the distribution and intensity of the non-adiabatic effect near the EV result in the anomalous eastward retreat of the WPSA.The WPSA prefers extending to the colder region,i.e.,it moves toward the region in which the non-adiabatic heating is weakening or the cooling is strengthening.During the WPSA retreat,the apparent changes of non-adiabatic heating illustrate the characteristics of enhanced cooling in the east side of the EV.Meanwhile,the cooling in the west side exhibits a weakened eastward trend,most prominently at 300 hPa in the troposphere.The evidence on the factors causing the change in thermal condition is found:the most important contribution to the heating-rate trend is the vertical transport term,followed in turn by the local change in the heating rate term and the horizontal advection term.As a result,the atmospheric non-adiabatic heating generated by the vertical transport and local change discussed above is mainly connected to the retreat of the WPSA.
基金Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (No. 2004CB418304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40875055 and 40625014China Meteorological Administration(GYHY200706010 and GYHY200706005)
文摘Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over China's Mainland in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about large scale subsidence, then why could deep moist convection occur and where does the water vapor come from？ In this paper, a deep convective precipitation case that happened on 2 August 2003 is studied in order to address these two questions. First, the characteristics of the TCP event are analyzed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite data, automatic weather station observations, and the data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Second, water vapor sources are identified through examining surface evaporation, water vapor advection, and water vapor flux divergence calculated by using a regionally averaged water vapor budget equation. Furthermore, using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM）, contributions of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the TCP are compared through four sensitivity experiments. The results show that in the regions controlled by the WPSH, surface temperature rises rapidly after sunrise. Upon receiving enough sensible heat, the air goes up and leads to convergence in the lower atmosphere. Then the water vapor assembled from the surroundings and the ground surface is transported to the upper levels, and a favorable environment for the TCP forms. A model data diagnosis indicates that about half of precipitable water comes from the convergence of horizontal fluxes of water vapor, and the other half from surface evaporation, while little is from advection. Additional sensitivity experiments prove that both sensible and latent heating are essential for the onset of the TCP. The sensible heat flux triggers thermodynamic ascending motion, and the latent heat flux provides water vapor, but the contribution to TCP from the latter is a little smaller than that from the former.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(No.42025605).
文摘The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming.However,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and Europe.However,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting seasons.Therefore,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more prominence.Emerging satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the Arctic.This paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean.Moreover,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.
