Climate change is one of the biggest health threats of the 21st century.Although China is the biggest developing country,with a large population and different climate types,its projections of large-scale heat-related ...Climate change is one of the biggest health threats of the 21st century.Although China is the biggest developing country,with a large population and different climate types,its projections of large-scale heat-related excess mortality remain understudied.In particular,the effects of climate change on aging populations have not been well studied,and may result in significantly underestimation of heat effects.In this study,we took four climate change scenarios of Tier-1 in CMIP6,which were combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs).We used the exposure-response functions derived from previous studies combined with baseline age-specific non-accidental mortality rates to project heat-related excess mortality.Then,we employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method to decompose the impacts of climate change,population growth,and aging on heat-related excess mortality.Finally,we multiplied the heat-related Years of Life Lost(YLL)with the Value of a Statistical Life Year(VSLY)to quantify the economic burden of premature mortality.We found that the heat-related excess mortality would be concentrated in central China and in the densely populated south-eastern coastal regions.When aging is considered,heat-related excess mortality will become 2.8–6.7 times than that without considering aging in 2081–2100 under different scenarios.The contribution analysis showed that the effect of aging on heat-related deaths would be much higher than that of climate change.Our findings highlighted that aging would lead to a severe increase of heat-related deaths and suggesting that regional-specific policies should be formulated in response to heat-related risks.展开更多
Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisc...Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.展开更多
During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the powe...During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately,this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid.On the demand side,the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China(0.533 GW°C^(−1))than in the northern region(0.139 GW°C^(−1))due to the limited municipal heating system.On the supply side,the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed.In addition,a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8-10 January.Thus,the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event.As an effective adaptation measure,results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model.The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems.Thus,close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.展开更多
Cross-border grid interconnection is a critical means to achieve wide-area share of hydro and other clean energy.Economic benefit assessment of cross-border grid interconnection projects should be carefully performed ...Cross-border grid interconnection is a critical means to achieve wide-area share of hydro and other clean energy.Economic benefit assessment of cross-border grid interconnection projects should be carefully performed during early stage.In this paper,a method based on cost-benefit economic assessment for optimal planning of cross-border grid interconnection is proposed.An economic index for comprehensively assessing the cost of a transmission project and its resulting benefits of more usage of hydro energy is designed first.A chronological production cost simulation model considering hydro energy spillage due to transmission congestion and thermal operational limitation is then proposed to calculate the economic index.A case study is performed using the proposed method to determine the optimal capacity of a potential transmission link between Brazil and Argentina,which have rich and complementary hydro energy resources.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72091514)the Energy Foundation(No.G-2206-33982)+1 种基金the Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Fund,Wellcome Trust(No.209734/Z/17/Z)the GEIGC Science and Technology Project in the framework of the“Research on Comprehensive Path Evaluation Methods and Practical Models for the Synergetic Development of Global Energy,Atmospheric Environment and Human Health”(No.SGGEIG00JYJS2100056).
文摘Climate change is one of the biggest health threats of the 21st century.Although China is the biggest developing country,with a large population and different climate types,its projections of large-scale heat-related excess mortality remain understudied.In particular,the effects of climate change on aging populations have not been well studied,and may result in significantly underestimation of heat effects.In this study,we took four climate change scenarios of Tier-1 in CMIP6,which were combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs).We used the exposure-response functions derived from previous studies combined with baseline age-specific non-accidental mortality rates to project heat-related excess mortality.Then,we employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method to decompose the impacts of climate change,population growth,and aging on heat-related excess mortality.Finally,we multiplied the heat-related Years of Life Lost(YLL)with the Value of a Statistical Life Year(VSLY)to quantify the economic burden of premature mortality.We found that the heat-related excess mortality would be concentrated in central China and in the densely populated south-eastern coastal regions.When aging is considered,heat-related excess mortality will become 2.8–6.7 times than that without considering aging in 2081–2100 under different scenarios.The contribution analysis showed that the effect of aging on heat-related deaths would be much higher than that of climate change.Our findings highlighted that aging would lead to a severe increase of heat-related deaths and suggesting that regional-specific policies should be formulated in response to heat-related risks.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175171)Humanities and Social Science Research Project of the Ministry of Education of China (20XJC790002)National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFA0602602).
文摘Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025503)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0605604).
文摘During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately,this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid.On the demand side,the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China(0.533 GW°C^(−1))than in the northern region(0.139 GW°C^(−1))due to the limited municipal heating system.On the supply side,the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed.In addition,a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8-10 January.Thus,the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event.As an effective adaptation measure,results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model.The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems.Thus,close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.
基金supported by Science and Technology Foundation of Global Energy Interconnection Group Co.Ltd(52450018000L)。
文摘Cross-border grid interconnection is a critical means to achieve wide-area share of hydro and other clean energy.Economic benefit assessment of cross-border grid interconnection projects should be carefully performed during early stage.In this paper,a method based on cost-benefit economic assessment for optimal planning of cross-border grid interconnection is proposed.An economic index for comprehensively assessing the cost of a transmission project and its resulting benefits of more usage of hydro energy is designed first.A chronological production cost simulation model considering hydro energy spillage due to transmission congestion and thermal operational limitation is then proposed to calculate the economic index.A case study is performed using the proposed method to determine the optimal capacity of a potential transmission link between Brazil and Argentina,which have rich and complementary hydro energy resources.
