The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studie...The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.展开更多
As the world's biggest carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emitter and the largest developing country,China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years.This study fu...As the world's biggest carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emitter and the largest developing country,China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years.This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement,by developing six long-term development scenarios,and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways,energy transformation,technology,policy and investment demand for each scenario.This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies,including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors(bottom-up),as well as scenario analysis,investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level(top-down).This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China.To comply with the target,a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO_(2) emissions by 9.3%from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity,which requires a huge investment demand.For example,in the 1.5℃ scenario,an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6%of that year's GDP will be necessary.The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies.China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development,with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans.展开更多
Carbon neutrality has been considered a new focus of countries for achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement.China has pledged to peak CO_(2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,and a"...Carbon neutrality has been considered a new focus of countries for achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement.China has pledged to peak CO_(2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,and a"1+N"policy framework has been built to guide the implementations.Scientific and technological innovation has been emphasized as one of the key strategies to establish an innovation system,strengthen research,and promote applications of green and low-carbon technologies[1].Despite numerous studies and policies on decarbonization technologies,studies focusing on technological development pathways for China’s carbon neutrality are needed[2].展开更多
Addressing climate change demands a significant shift away from fossil fuels,with sectors like electricity and transportation relying heavily on renewable energy.Integral to this transition are energy storage systems,...Addressing climate change demands a significant shift away from fossil fuels,with sectors like electricity and transportation relying heavily on renewable energy.Integral to this transition are energy storage systems,notably lithium-ion batteries.Over time,these batteries degrade,affecting their efficiency and posing safety risks.Monitoring and predicting battery aging is essential,especially estimating its state of health(SOH).Various SOH estimation methods exist,from traditional model-based approaches to machine learning approaches.展开更多
Thecoal-to-liquidcoupledwithcarbon capture,utilization,and storage technology has the potential to reduce CO_(2)emissions,but its carbon footprint and cost assessment are still insufficient.In this paper,coal mining t...Thecoal-to-liquidcoupledwithcarbon capture,utilization,and storage technology has the potential to reduce CO_(2)emissions,but its carbon footprint and cost assessment are still insufficient.In this paper,coal mining to oil production is taken as a life cycle to evaluate the carbon footprint and levelized costs of direct-coal-toliquid and indirect-coal-to-liquid coupled with the carbon capture utilization and storage technology under three scenarios:non capture,process capture,process and public capture throughout the life cycle.The results show that,first,the coupling carbon capture utilization and storage technology can reduce CO_(2)footprint by 28%-57%from 5.91 t CO_(2)/t:oil of direct-coal-to-liquid and 24%-49%from 7.10 t CO_(2)/t:oil of indirect-coal-to-liquid.Next,the levelized cost of direct-coal-to-liquid is 648-1027$/t of oil,whereas that of indirect-coal-to-liquid is 653-1065$/t of oil.When coupled with the carbon capture utilization and storage technology,the levelized cost of direct-coalto-liquid is 285-1364$/t of oil,compared to 1101-9793/t of oil for indirect-coal-to-liquid.Finally,sensitivity analysis shows that CO_(2)transportation distance has the greatest impact on carbon footprint,while coal price and initial investment cost significantly affect the levelized cost ofcoal-to-liquid.展开更多
The Conference of the Parties(COP26 and 27)placed significant emphasis on climate financing policies with the objective of achieving net zero emissions and carbon neutrality.However,studies on the implementation of th...The Conference of the Parties(COP26 and 27)placed significant emphasis on climate financing policies with the objective of achieving net zero emissions and carbon neutrality.However,studies on the implementation of this policy proposition are limited.To address this gap in the literature,this study employs machine learning techniques,specifically natural language processing(NLP),to examine 77 climate bond(CB)policies from 32 countries within the context of climate financing.The findings indicate that“sustainability”and“carbon emissions control”are the most outlined policy objectives in these CB policies.Additionally,the study highlights that most CB funds are invested toward energy projects(i.e.,renewable,clean,and efficient initiatives).However,there has been a notable shift in the allocation of CB funds from climate-friendly energy projects to the construction sector between 2015 and 2019.This shift raises concerns about the potential redirection of funds from climate-focused investments to the real estate industry,potentially leading to the greenwashing of climate funds.Furthermore,policy sentiment analysis revealed that a minority of policies hold skeptical views on climate change,which may negatively influence climate actions.Thus,the findings highlight that the effective implementation of CB policies depends on policy goals,objectives,and sentiments.Finally,this study contributes to the literature by employing NLP techniques to understand policy sentiments in climate financing.展开更多
A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in ...A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.展开更多
China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and neutralize emissions by 2060.There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive and reliable methodology to judge whether a region has reached its carbon emission...China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and neutralize emissions by 2060.There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive and reliable methodology to judge whether a region has reached its carbon emissions peak(CEP),as well as to schedule and prioritize mitigation activities for different regions.In this study,we developed an approach for identifying the CEP status of 30 provincial areas in China,considering both the carbon emissions trends and the main socioeconomic factors that influence these trends.According to the results of the Mann-Kendall(MK)tests,changes in carbon emissions for the 30 provincial areas can be grouped inlo four clusters:those with significant reductions,marginal reductions,marginal increases,and significant increases.Then,total energy consumption(TEC),the proportion of coal consumption(PCC),the proportion of the urban population(PUP),the proportion of secondary industry(PASP),and per capita GDP(PGDP)were further identified as the main factors influencing carbon emissions,by applying Redundancy analysis(RDA)and Monte Carlo permutation tests.To balance efficacy with fairness,we assigned scores from 1 to 4 to trends in carbon emissions,and the Group Analysis results of the main influencing factors above except for TEC;for TEC,main basis is the relevant assessment results.And finally,according to the actual condition of total scores,provincial areas were assigned to the first,second,third and fourth stage of progress toward CEP,using the method of Natural Breaks(Jenks).Based on the method,differentiated plans should be adopted from the perspective of fair development and emissions reduction efficiency,in accordance with the basic principles of Doing the Best within Capacity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.This classification method can also be adopted by other developing countries which have not yet achieved CEP.展开更多
The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and indust...The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.展开更多
The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study...The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study aims to provide an analysis of the ambitiousness and fairness of the mitigation components of the INDCs submitted by various parties. We use a unified framework to assess 23 INDCs that cover 50 countries, including European Union (EU)-28 countries as parties to the Convention, which represent 87.45% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. First, we transform initial INDC files into reported reduction targets. Second, we create four schemes and six scenarios to determine the required reduction effort, which considers each nation's reduction responsibility, capacity, and potential, thereby reflecting their historical and current development status. Finally, we combine the reported reduction target and the required reduction effort to assess INDCs. Evaluation results of the 23 emitters indicate that 2 emitters (i.e., EU and Brazil) are rated as "sufficient," 7 emitters (e.g., China, the United States, and Canada) are rated as "moderate," and 14 emitters (e.g., India, Russia, and Japan) are rated as "insufficient." Most pledges exhibit a considerable distance from representing a fair contribution.展开更多
1.Introduction 2020 is an unusual year in which the COVID-19 pandemic has raged through the globe,infecting tens of millions of people and killing hundreds of thousands.The pandemic has not only wreaked havoc on publi...1.Introduction 2020 is an unusual year in which the COVID-19 pandemic has raged through the globe,infecting tens of millions of people and killing hundreds of thousands.The pandemic has not only wreaked havoc on public health systems,economic activities,and people's lives,but also has greatly affected and will continue to reshape the world's political,economic,and trade patterns.展开更多
Dear Editor,The growing demand for transportation energy has brought increasing challenges to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Currently,many countries or regions have proposed solutions to achieve carbon-neutral tra...Dear Editor,The growing demand for transportation energy has brought increasing challenges to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Currently,many countries or regions have proposed solutions to achieve carbon-neutral transportation such as the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle(EV)market.However,these benefits are not free.Before the goal of decarbonization in electricity is achieved,the“pseudo net zero emissions”effect of the transportation sector will inevitably be accompanied by a quiet shifting of carbon responsibility.1 This shift is undoubtedly fatal for both net zero emissions at the national level and carbon responsibility at the industry level;however,the corresponding effects have not yet been clarified.展开更多
With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of inv...With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.展开更多
Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)is estimated to contribute substantial CO_(2)emission reduction to carbon neutrality in China.There is yet a large gap between such enormous demand and the current capacity,...Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)is estimated to contribute substantial CO_(2)emission reduction to carbon neutrality in China.There is yet a large gap between such enormous demand and the current capacity,and thus a sound enabling environment with sufficient policy support is imperative for CCUS development.This study reviewed 59 CCUS-related policy documents issued by the Chinese government as of July 2022,and found that a supporting policy framework for CCUS is taking embryonic form in China.More than ten departments of the central government have involved CCUS in their policies,of which the State Council,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST),and the Ministry of Ecological Environment(MEE)have given the greatest attention with different focuses.Specific policy terms are further analyzed following the method of content analysis and categorized into supply-,environment-and demand-type policies.The results indicate that supply-type policies are unbalanced in policy objectives,as policy terms on technology research and demonstration greatly outnumber those on other objectives,and the attention to weak links and industrial sectors is far from sufficient.Environment-type policies,especially legislations,standards,and incentives,are inadequate in pertinence and operability.Demand-type policies are absent in the current policy system but is essential to drive the demand for the CCUS technology in domestic and foreign markets.To meet the reduction demand of China's carbon neutral goal,policies need to be tailored according to needs of each specific technology and implemented in an orderly manner with well-balanced use on multiple objectives.展开更多
With the development of the bike-sharing system(BSS)and the introduction of green and low carbon development,the environmental impacts of BSS had received increasing attention in recent years.However,the emissions fro...With the development of the bike-sharing system(BSS)and the introduction of green and low carbon development,the environmental impacts of BSS had received increasing attention in recent years.However,the emissions from the rebalancing of BSS,where fossil-fueled vehicles are commonly used,are usually neglected,which goes against the idea of green travel in a sharing economy.Previous studies on the bike-sharing rebalancing problem(BRP),which is considered NP-hard,have mainly focused on algorithm innovation instead of improving the solution model,thereby hindering the application of many existing models in large-scale BRP.This study then proposes a method for optimizing the CO_(2)emissions from BRP and takes the BSS of Beijing as a demonstration.We initially analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of BSS,especially the flow between districts,and find that each district can be independently rebalanced.Afterward,we develop a rebalancing optimization model based on a partitioning strategy to avoid deciding the number of bikes being loaded or unloaded at each parking node.We then employ the tabu search algorithm to solve the model.Results show that(i)due to over launch and lack of planning in rebalancing,the BSS in Beijing shows great potential for optimization,such as by reducing the number of vehicle routes,CO_(2)emissions,and unmet demands;(ii)the CO_(2)emissions of BSS in Beijing can be reduced by 57.5%by forming balanced parking nodes at the end of the day and decreasing the repetition of vehicle routes and the loads of vehicles;and(iii)the launch amounts of bikes in specific districts,such as Shijingshan and Mentougou,should be increased.展开更多
Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM ...Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.展开更多
Cascading faults have been identified as the primary cause of multiple power outages in recent years.With the emergence of integrated energy systems(IES),the conventional approach to analyzing power grid cascading fau...Cascading faults have been identified as the primary cause of multiple power outages in recent years.With the emergence of integrated energy systems(IES),the conventional approach to analyzing power grid cascading faults is no longer appropriate.A cascading fault analysis method considering multi-energy coupling characteristics is of vital importance.In this study,an innovative analysis method for cascading faults in integrated heat and electricity systems(IHES)is proposed.It considers the degradation characteristics of transmission and energy supply com-ponents in the system to address the impact of component aging on cascading faults.Firstly,degradation models for the current carrying capacity of transmission lines,the water carrying capacity and insulation performance of thermal pipelines,as well as the performance of energy supply equipment during aging,are developed.Secondly,a simulation process for cascading faults in the IHES is proposed.It utilizes an overload-dominated development model to predict the propagation path of cascading faults while also considering network islanding,electric-heating rescheduling,and load shedding.The propagation of cascading faults is reflected in the form of fault chains.Finally,the results of cascading faults under different aging levels are analyzed through numerical examples,thereby verifying the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model and method.展开更多
It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on gree...It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction,air quality improvement,and improved health.In the context of carbon peak,carbon neutrality,and clean air policies,this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators.The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects:air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions,progress in structural transition,sources,inks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,health impacts and benefits of coordinated control,and synergetic governance system and practices.By tracking the progress in each indicator,this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control,identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance,and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China.展开更多
Climate change and energy security issues are prominent challenges in current energy system management,which should be governed synergistically due to the feedback relationships between them.The“Energy Systems Manage...Climate change and energy security issues are prominent challenges in current energy system management,which should be governed synergistically due to the feedback relationships between them.The“Energy Systems Management and Climate Change”Special Collection Issue in the journal of Energy Engineering provide insights into the field of energy systems management and climate change.From an extended perspective,this study discusses the key issues,research methods and models for energy system management and climate change research.Comprehensive and accurate prediction of energy supply and demand,the evaluation on the energy system resilience to climate change and the coupling methodology application of both nature and social science field maybe the frontier topics around achieving sustainable development goals of energy systems.展开更多
With the widespread popularity of carbon neutrality,the decarbonization approach using carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)has grown from a low-carbon utilization technology to an indispensable technology for ...With the widespread popularity of carbon neutrality,the decarbonization approach using carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)has grown from a low-carbon utilization technology to an indispensable technology for the entire global carbon-neutral technology system.As a primary method to support CCUS research,source-sink matching models face several new demand-oriented challenges.Comprehensive research and in-depth insights are needed to guide targeted capability upgrades.This review evaluates the advances,challenges,and perspectives of various CCUS source-sink matching models developed in the past 10 years.We provide an integrated conceptual framework from six key attributes relating to mitigation targets,carbon sources,carbon sinks,transportation networks,utilization,and integration(synergy).The results indicate that previous models have effectively deepened our understanding of the matching process by targeting various CCUS-related issues and provided a solid foundation for more robust models to be developed.Six perspectives are put forward to outline research and development prospects for future models,which may have meaningful effects for advancement under emerging carbon neutrality targets.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71521002,72104025,and 72004011)China’s National Key Research and Development(R&D)Program(2016YFA0602603)China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2021M690014)。
文摘The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.
文摘As the world's biggest carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emitter and the largest developing country,China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years.This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement,by developing six long-term development scenarios,and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways,energy transformation,technology,policy and investment demand for each scenario.This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies,including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors(bottom-up),as well as scenario analysis,investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level(top-down).This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China.To comply with the target,a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO_(2) emissions by 9.3%from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity,which requires a huge investment demand.For example,in the 1.5℃ scenario,an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6%of that year's GDP will be necessary.The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies.China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development,with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans.
基金support on data research and technological deployment provided by the Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of Chinathe funding provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72140005 and 51621003)。
文摘Carbon neutrality has been considered a new focus of countries for achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement.China has pledged to peak CO_(2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,and a"1+N"policy framework has been built to guide the implementations.Scientific and technological innovation has been emphasized as one of the key strategies to establish an innovation system,strengthen research,and promote applications of green and low-carbon technologies[1].Despite numerous studies and policies on decarbonization technologies,studies focusing on technological development pathways for China’s carbon neutrality are needed[2].
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72201152 and 52207229)。
文摘Addressing climate change demands a significant shift away from fossil fuels,with sectors like electricity and transportation relying heavily on renewable energy.Integral to this transition are energy storage systems,notably lithium-ion batteries.Over time,these batteries degrade,affecting their efficiency and posing safety risks.Monitoring and predicting battery aging is essential,especially estimating its state of health(SOH).Various SOH estimation methods exist,from traditional model-based approaches to machine learning approaches.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.72174196 and 71874193)Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining(China University of Mining and Technology)(Grant Nos.SKLCRSM21KFA05 and SKLCRSM22KFA09)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2022JCCXNY02).
文摘Thecoal-to-liquidcoupledwithcarbon capture,utilization,and storage technology has the potential to reduce CO_(2)emissions,but its carbon footprint and cost assessment are still insufficient.In this paper,coal mining to oil production is taken as a life cycle to evaluate the carbon footprint and levelized costs of direct-coal-toliquid and indirect-coal-to-liquid coupled with the carbon capture utilization and storage technology under three scenarios:non capture,process capture,process and public capture throughout the life cycle.The results show that,first,the coupling carbon capture utilization and storage technology can reduce CO_(2)footprint by 28%-57%from 5.91 t CO_(2)/t:oil of direct-coal-to-liquid and 24%-49%from 7.10 t CO_(2)/t:oil of indirect-coal-to-liquid.Next,the levelized cost of direct-coal-to-liquid is 648-1027$/t of oil,whereas that of indirect-coal-to-liquid is 653-1065$/t of oil.When coupled with the carbon capture utilization and storage technology,the levelized cost of direct-coalto-liquid is 285-1364$/t of oil,compared to 1101-9793/t of oil for indirect-coal-to-liquid.Finally,sensitivity analysis shows that CO_(2)transportation distance has the greatest impact on carbon footprint,while coal price and initial investment cost significantly affect the levelized cost ofcoal-to-liquid.
基金supported by the funding of Belt and Road Research Institute,Xiamen University(No:1500-X2101200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Key Program,No:72133003).
文摘The Conference of the Parties(COP26 and 27)placed significant emphasis on climate financing policies with the objective of achieving net zero emissions and carbon neutrality.However,studies on the implementation of this policy proposition are limited.To address this gap in the literature,this study employs machine learning techniques,specifically natural language processing(NLP),to examine 77 climate bond(CB)policies from 32 countries within the context of climate financing.The findings indicate that“sustainability”and“carbon emissions control”are the most outlined policy objectives in these CB policies.Additionally,the study highlights that most CB funds are invested toward energy projects(i.e.,renewable,clean,and efficient initiatives).However,there has been a notable shift in the allocation of CB funds from climate-friendly energy projects to the construction sector between 2015 and 2019.This shift raises concerns about the potential redirection of funds from climate-focused investments to the real estate industry,potentially leading to the greenwashing of climate funds.Furthermore,policy sentiment analysis revealed that a minority of policies hold skeptical views on climate change,which may negatively influence climate actions.Thus,the findings highlight that the effective implementation of CB policies depends on policy goals,objectives,and sentiments.Finally,this study contributes to the literature by employing NLP techniques to understand policy sentiments in climate financing.
基金the financial support of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71874193,71503249,71203008,71904014)the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research(CBA2018-02MY-Fan)+2 种基金Huo Yingdong Education Foundation(171072)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.2020YJSNY01,2020SKNY01)the Open Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining(China University of Mining and Technology,SKLCRSM19KFA14).
文摘A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.
基金We thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Youth Science Fund Project)"Zoning control of ozone pollution based on multi-source data"(4210072435)the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.The People's Republic of China project"Carbon Emission Peak Action"for financial support.
文摘China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and neutralize emissions by 2060.There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive and reliable methodology to judge whether a region has reached its carbon emissions peak(CEP),as well as to schedule and prioritize mitigation activities for different regions.In this study,we developed an approach for identifying the CEP status of 30 provincial areas in China,considering both the carbon emissions trends and the main socioeconomic factors that influence these trends.According to the results of the Mann-Kendall(MK)tests,changes in carbon emissions for the 30 provincial areas can be grouped inlo four clusters:those with significant reductions,marginal reductions,marginal increases,and significant increases.Then,total energy consumption(TEC),the proportion of coal consumption(PCC),the proportion of the urban population(PUP),the proportion of secondary industry(PASP),and per capita GDP(PGDP)were further identified as the main factors influencing carbon emissions,by applying Redundancy analysis(RDA)and Monte Carlo permutation tests.To balance efficacy with fairness,we assigned scores from 1 to 4 to trends in carbon emissions,and the Group Analysis results of the main influencing factors above except for TEC;for TEC,main basis is the relevant assessment results.And finally,according to the actual condition of total scores,provincial areas were assigned to the first,second,third and fourth stage of progress toward CEP,using the method of Natural Breaks(Jenks).Based on the method,differentiated plans should be adopted from the perspective of fair development and emissions reduction efficiency,in accordance with the basic principles of Doing the Best within Capacity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.This classification method can also be adopted by other developing countries which have not yet achieved CEP.
文摘The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.
文摘The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study aims to provide an analysis of the ambitiousness and fairness of the mitigation components of the INDCs submitted by various parties. We use a unified framework to assess 23 INDCs that cover 50 countries, including European Union (EU)-28 countries as parties to the Convention, which represent 87.45% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. First, we transform initial INDC files into reported reduction targets. Second, we create four schemes and six scenarios to determine the required reduction effort, which considers each nation's reduction responsibility, capacity, and potential, thereby reflecting their historical and current development status. Finally, we combine the reported reduction target and the required reduction effort to assess INDCs. Evaluation results of the 23 emitters indicate that 2 emitters (i.e., EU and Brazil) are rated as "sufficient," 7 emitters (e.g., China, the United States, and Canada) are rated as "moderate," and 14 emitters (e.g., India, Russia, and Japan) are rated as "insufficient." Most pledges exhibit a considerable distance from representing a fair contribution.
基金Thanks for the support of the Special Fund for Global Green Development and Climate Change of Tsinghua University Education Foundation and the Energy Foundation.
文摘1.Introduction 2020 is an unusual year in which the COVID-19 pandemic has raged through the globe,infecting tens of millions of people and killing hundreds of thousands.The pandemic has not only wreaked havoc on public health systems,economic activities,and people's lives,but also has greatly affected and will continue to reshape the world's political,economic,and trade patterns.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(no.2021YFB1600202)We thank the anonymous reviewers for reviewing this manuscript.
文摘Dear Editor,The growing demand for transportation energy has brought increasing challenges to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Currently,many countries or regions have proposed solutions to achieve carbon-neutral transportation such as the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle(EV)market.However,these benefits are not free.Before the goal of decarbonization in electricity is achieved,the“pseudo net zero emissions”effect of the transportation sector will inevitably be accompanied by a quiet shifting of carbon responsibility.1 This shift is undoubtedly fatal for both net zero emissions at the national level and carbon responsibility at the industry level;however,the corresponding effects have not yet been clarified.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71934004)Key Projects of the National Social Science Foundation(23AZD065)the Project of the CNOOC Energy Economics Institute(EEI-2022-IESA0009)。
文摘With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.
基金the Cooperative Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(Grant No.202001SDZD01).
文摘Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)is estimated to contribute substantial CO_(2)emission reduction to carbon neutrality in China.There is yet a large gap between such enormous demand and the current capacity,and thus a sound enabling environment with sufficient policy support is imperative for CCUS development.This study reviewed 59 CCUS-related policy documents issued by the Chinese government as of July 2022,and found that a supporting policy framework for CCUS is taking embryonic form in China.More than ten departments of the central government have involved CCUS in their policies,of which the State Council,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST),and the Ministry of Ecological Environment(MEE)have given the greatest attention with different focuses.Specific policy terms are further analyzed following the method of content analysis and categorized into supply-,environment-and demand-type policies.The results indicate that supply-type policies are unbalanced in policy objectives,as policy terms on technology research and demonstration greatly outnumber those on other objectives,and the attention to weak links and industrial sectors is far from sufficient.Environment-type policies,especially legislations,standards,and incentives,are inadequate in pertinence and operability.Demand-type policies are absent in the current policy system but is essential to drive the demand for the CCUS technology in domestic and foreign markets.To meet the reduction demand of China's carbon neutral goal,policies need to be tailored according to needs of each specific technology and implemented in an orderly manner with well-balanced use on multiple objectives.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71871022,71828401 and 71521002)the Joint Development Program of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education,the Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation(Grant No.161076)+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2016YFA0602603)the National Program for Support of Top-notch Young Professionals.
文摘With the development of the bike-sharing system(BSS)and the introduction of green and low carbon development,the environmental impacts of BSS had received increasing attention in recent years.However,the emissions from the rebalancing of BSS,where fossil-fueled vehicles are commonly used,are usually neglected,which goes against the idea of green travel in a sharing economy.Previous studies on the bike-sharing rebalancing problem(BRP),which is considered NP-hard,have mainly focused on algorithm innovation instead of improving the solution model,thereby hindering the application of many existing models in large-scale BRP.This study then proposes a method for optimizing the CO_(2)emissions from BRP and takes the BSS of Beijing as a demonstration.We initially analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of BSS,especially the flow between districts,and find that each district can be independently rebalanced.Afterward,we develop a rebalancing optimization model based on a partitioning strategy to avoid deciding the number of bikes being loaded or unloaded at each parking node.We then employ the tabu search algorithm to solve the model.Results show that(i)due to over launch and lack of planning in rebalancing,the BSS in Beijing shows great potential for optimization,such as by reducing the number of vehicle routes,CO_(2)emissions,and unmet demands;(ii)the CO_(2)emissions of BSS in Beijing can be reduced by 57.5%by forming balanced parking nodes at the end of the day and decreasing the repetition of vehicle routes and the loads of vehicles;and(iii)the launch amounts of bikes in specific districts,such as Shijingshan and Mentougou,should be increased.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72293605,72293600,72204013,72074022)R&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission(SM202310005005)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M700314,2023T160035).
文摘Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.
基金supported by Shanghai Rising-Star Program(No.22QA1403900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71804106)the Noncarbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute under the Shanghai Class IV Peak Disciplinary Development Program.
文摘Cascading faults have been identified as the primary cause of multiple power outages in recent years.With the emergence of integrated energy systems(IES),the conventional approach to analyzing power grid cascading faults is no longer appropriate.A cascading fault analysis method considering multi-energy coupling characteristics is of vital importance.In this study,an innovative analysis method for cascading faults in integrated heat and electricity systems(IHES)is proposed.It considers the degradation characteristics of transmission and energy supply com-ponents in the system to address the impact of component aging on cascading faults.Firstly,degradation models for the current carrying capacity of transmission lines,the water carrying capacity and insulation performance of thermal pipelines,as well as the performance of energy supply equipment during aging,are developed.Secondly,a simulation process for cascading faults in the IHES is proposed.It utilizes an overload-dominated development model to predict the propagation path of cascading faults while also considering network islanding,electric-heating rescheduling,and load shedding.The propagation of cascading faults is reflected in the form of fault chains.Finally,the results of cascading faults under different aging levels are analyzed through numerical examples,thereby verifying the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model and method.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41921005,42130708,and 72140003)and the Energy Foundation.
文摘It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction,air quality improvement,and improved health.In the context of carbon peak,carbon neutrality,and clean air policies,this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators.The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects:air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions,progress in structural transition,sources,inks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,health impacts and benefits of coordinated control,and synergetic governance system and practices.By tracking the progress in each indicator,this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control,identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance,and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2022SKNY01,2022YJSNY04).
文摘Climate change and energy security issues are prominent challenges in current energy system management,which should be governed synergistically due to the feedback relationships between them.The“Energy Systems Management and Climate Change”Special Collection Issue in the journal of Energy Engineering provide insights into the field of energy systems management and climate change.From an extended perspective,this study discusses the key issues,research methods and models for energy system management and climate change research.Comprehensive and accurate prediction of energy supply and demand,the evaluation on the energy system resilience to climate change and the coupling methodology application of both nature and social science field maybe the frontier topics around achieving sustainable development goals of energy systems.
基金supported by the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72174196,71874193,and 71203008.
文摘With the widespread popularity of carbon neutrality,the decarbonization approach using carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)has grown from a low-carbon utilization technology to an indispensable technology for the entire global carbon-neutral technology system.As a primary method to support CCUS research,source-sink matching models face several new demand-oriented challenges.Comprehensive research and in-depth insights are needed to guide targeted capability upgrades.This review evaluates the advances,challenges,and perspectives of various CCUS source-sink matching models developed in the past 10 years.We provide an integrated conceptual framework from six key attributes relating to mitigation targets,carbon sources,carbon sinks,transportation networks,utilization,and integration(synergy).The results indicate that previous models have effectively deepened our understanding of the matching process by targeting various CCUS-related issues and provided a solid foundation for more robust models to be developed.Six perspectives are put forward to outline research and development prospects for future models,which may have meaningful effects for advancement under emerging carbon neutrality targets.
