NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is...NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.展开更多
The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual...The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Kppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Nios in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Nio event,this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Nio-related hydrometeorological threats.Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Nio's impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circumCaribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.展开更多
This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had...This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.展开更多
基金made possible through the support provided by the Office of U.S.Foreign Disaster AssistanceBureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian AssistanceU.S.Agency for International Development。
文摘NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.
基金the support provided by the Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance,Bureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance,US Agency for International Development
文摘The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Kppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Nios in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Nio event,this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Nio-related hydrometeorological threats.Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Nio's impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circumCaribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.
文摘This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.
