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副热带高压研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识 被引量:106
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作者 刘屹岷 吴国雄 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2000年第4期500-512,共13页
文中在回顾有关副热带高压研究的基础上 ,指出传统的观念在东太平洋副热带高压和西太平洋副热带高压的关系、下沉运动和副热带高压的形成、热带加热异常与副热带高压异常的关系、副热带高压与其周边系统的关系等问题上存在一定的局限。... 文中在回顾有关副热带高压研究的基础上 ,指出传统的观念在东太平洋副热带高压和西太平洋副热带高压的关系、下沉运动和副热带高压的形成、热带加热异常与副热带高压异常的关系、副热带高压与其周边系统的关系等问题上存在一定的局限。并根据近期的研究成果对上述问题给出新的认识。最后文中展望了在副热带高压的研究中需进一步深入的几个方面 :不同纬度相互作用、青藏高原的作用、时间尺度 -内部动力过程和外界强迫的相对重要性、非线性过程和角动量平衡问题。 展开更多
关键词 副热带高压 下沉运动 外界强迫 时间尺度
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Interaction between Anomalous Winter Monsoon in East Asia and EI Nino Events 被引量:99
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作者 李崇银 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1990年第1期36-46,共11页
Based on a series of data analyses, the intimate relations between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino arc studied in this paper.Anomalistic circulation in the Northern Hemisphere caused by El Nino event... Based on a series of data analyses, the intimate relations between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino arc studied in this paper.Anomalistic circulation in the Northern Hemisphere caused by El Nino event can lead to enhancing the Ferre! cell and the westerlies in the mid-latitudes as the Hadley cell and result in the location of the front zone in East Asia to the north. These are unfavourable for the cold wave breaking out southward in East Asia. Therefore, there ate warmer weather and weaker winter monsoon in East Asia in El Nino winter.There are stronger and frequent cold waves in East Asia during the wintertime prior to the occurrence of El Nino event. They will induce stronger winter monsoon in East Asia. Thus, the weakened trade wind and enhanced cumulus convection in the equatorial middle-western Pacific area caused by the stronger winter monsoon will play an important role in the occurrence of El Nino event. Therefore, the anomalously strong winter monsoon in East Asia during wintertime might be an important mechanism to cause El Nino event. 展开更多
关键词 EI Nino ASIA
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ASYMPTOTIC SOLUTION OF ACTIVATOR INHIBITOR SYSTEMS FOR NONLINEAR REACTION DIFFUSION EQUATIONS 被引量:96
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作者 Jiaqi MO Wantao LIN 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第1期119-128,共10页
A nonlinear reaction diffusion equations for activator inhibitor systems is considered. Under suitable conditions, firstly, the outer solution of the original problem is obtained, secondly, using the variables of mult... A nonlinear reaction diffusion equations for activator inhibitor systems is considered. Under suitable conditions, firstly, the outer solution of the original problem is obtained, secondly, using the variables of multiple scales and the expanding theory of power series the formal asymptotic expansions of the solution are constructed, and finally, using the theory of differential inequalities the uniform validity and asymptotic behavior of the solution are studied. 展开更多
关键词 Activator system NONLINEAR reaction diffusion singular perturbation.
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华北地区汛期降水的一个分析研究 被引量:70
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作者 李崇银 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 1992年第1期41-49,共9页
通过历史资料的分析,本文首先指出华北地区的汛期降水量存在着不同时间尺度的低频变化,其中以准两年周期振荡和周期约为16年的振荡比较明显,而且前者同平流层QBO有一定关系。另外,在汛期多雨年,华北降水量有明显季节内(30—60天)振荡;... 通过历史资料的分析,本文首先指出华北地区的汛期降水量存在着不同时间尺度的低频变化,其中以准两年周期振荡和周期约为16年的振荡比较明显,而且前者同平流层QBO有一定关系。另外,在汛期多雨年,华北降水量有明显季节内(30—60天)振荡;而在汛期少雨年,降水量的30—60天振荡却不太清楚。 ENSO对华北的汛期降水有重要影响,El Nino年华北汛期雨量平均偏少,仅El Nino年华北汛期平均雨量偏多。El Nino年所出现的大气环流异常是造成华北汛期降水量变化的重要原因。关于高纬度和极区环流对华北汛期降水量的影响也进行了初步探讨。 展开更多
关键词 降水资料 汛期 华北地区 降水量 低频变化 大气环流异常 年际变化
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An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index 被引量:76
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作者 黄刚 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第1期41-52,共12页
Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is... Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. 展开更多
关键词 East Asia/Pacific index East Asian summer monsoon interannual variability
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南海月平均流的计算 被引量:55
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作者 曾庆存 李荣凤 +2 位作者 季仲贞 甘子钧 柯佩辉 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1989年第2期127-138,共12页
本文用一个二维全流方程模式,计算了南海1—12月的逐月平均流。所得的南海逐月环流的总趋势以及一些中小尺度的涡旋现象不仅与海洋观测相一致,也与已有的一些研究结果相吻合。而且,计算所得的海洋场和海面起伏场均很好地反映出南海的季... 本文用一个二维全流方程模式,计算了南海1—12月的逐月平均流。所得的南海逐月环流的总趋势以及一些中小尺度的涡旋现象不仅与海洋观测相一致,也与已有的一些研究结果相吻合。而且,计算所得的海洋场和海面起伏场均很好地反映出南海的季节性变化特征,特别是高海暖流的存在在计算中又进一步得到了证实。文中对南海海流的机理也作了一此初步探讨。 展开更多
关键词 月平均流 海流 南海 暖流
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江南春雨的时空分布 被引量:57
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作者 万日金 吴国雄 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第3期310-319,共10页
江南春雨是东亚独特的天气气候现象,已有充分证据表明,它是青藏高原高大地形的动力和热力强迫的结果,但目前其时空分布还不明确。NCEP/NCAR环流及感热资料气候平均分析表明:在3月第1候(全年第13候),高原主体和高原东南部的感热加热、高... 江南春雨是东亚独特的天气气候现象,已有充分证据表明,它是青藏高原高大地形的动力和热力强迫的结果,但目前其时空分布还不明确。NCEP/NCAR环流及感热资料气候平均分析表明:在3月第1候(全年第13候),高原主体和高原东南部的感热加热、高原东南侧西南风速、江南春雨区西南风速和江南春雨区雨量都提升到一个新的水平,标志着江南春雨的建立;在5月第3候(全年第27候)以后,高原东南部的感热加热、高原东南侧西南风速、江南春雨区西南风速和江南春雨区雨量都迅速减小,对流层中低层南海副高脊线由南倾转北倾,江南雨带中心南移至南海,南海季风爆发,标志着江南春雨期的结束。因此,将江南春雨的建立和终结时间定为第13候和第27候比较适当。资料分析和数值敏感性试验表明,江南春雨期对流层低层冷暖空气的交汇区在30°N附近,但江南春雨雨带的位置和强度明显受南岭、武夷山脉地形的影响:山脉地形能阻挡抬升冷暖空气,加强锋生,增强降水,使雨带中心位置与山脉主轴分布重合。因此,江南春雨的空间范围包括长江中下游(30°N)以南、110°E以东的中国东南部地区。 展开更多
关键词 江南春雨 时空分布 南海季风 山脉地形 数值模式敏感性试验
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A New North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Its Variability 被引量:54
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作者 李建平 Julian X.L.WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第5期661-676,共16页
A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive c... A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and 70°-30°W, whether in winter or summer. From 1873, the NAOI exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability. Its interannual variability of the twelve calendar months is obviously phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. Moreover, the annual NAOI exhibits a clearer decadal variability in amplitude than the winter NAOI. An upward trend is found in the annual NAOI between the 1870s and 1910s, while the other winter NAO indices fail to show this tendency. The annual NAOI exhibits a strongly positive epoch of 50 years between 1896 and 1950. After 1950, the variability of the annual NAOI is very similar to that of the winter NAO indices. 展开更多
关键词 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index interannual and decadal variability signal-to-noise ratio seasonal phase lock
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Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on summer rainfall over East Asia 被引量:48
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作者 XUEFeng WANGHuijun HEJinhai 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2003年第5期492-497,共6页
Based on the reanalysis data fromNCEP/NCAR and other observational data, interannualvariability of Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) from 1970 to 1999 is examined. It is shown that interannual variability o... Based on the reanalysis data fromNCEP/NCAR and other observational data, interannualvariability of Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) from 1970 to 1999 is examined. It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), when the circumpolar low in the high southern lati-tudes deepens, the intensity of MH will be intensified. On the other hand, AH is correlated by AAO as well as El Nio and South Oscillation (ENSO), the intensity of AH will be inten-sified when El Nio occurs. Both correlation analysis andcase study demonstrate that summer rainfall over East Asia is closely related to MH and AH. When MH intensifies from boreal spring to summer (i.e. from austral autumn to winter)there is more rainfall over regions from the Yangtze Rivervalley to Japan, in contrast, less rainfall is found over south-ern China and western Pacific to the east of Taiwan, andmost of regions in mid-latitudes of East Asia. Compared with MH, the effect of AH on summer rainfall in East Asia is lim-ited to localized regions, there is more rainfall over southern China with the intensification of AH. The results in this study show that AAO is a strong signal on interannual time-scale, which plays an important role in summer rainfall over East Asia. This discovery is of real importance to revealing the physical mechanism of interannual variability of EastAsian summer monsoon and prediction of summer precipi-tation in China. 展开更多
关键词 亚州东部 夏季 降雨量 年际变化率 马斯克林高压 澳大利亚高压
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A Two-Step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme 被引量:42
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作者 宇如聪 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1994年第4期479-490,共12页
This paper proposes a new two-step non-oscillatory shape-preserving positive definite finite difference advection transport scheme, which merges the advantages of small dispersion error in the simple first-order upst... This paper proposes a new two-step non-oscillatory shape-preserving positive definite finite difference advection transport scheme, which merges the advantages of small dispersion error in the simple first-order upstream scheme and small dissipation error in the simple second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme and is completely different from most of present positive definite advection schemes which are based on revising the upstream scheme results. The proposed scheme is much less time consuming than present shape-preserving or non-oscillatory advection transport schemes and produces results which are comparable to the results obtained from the present more complicated schemes. Elementary tests are also presented to examine the behavior of the scheme. 展开更多
关键词 Shape-preserving Non-oscillation positive definite advection scheme
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Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP 被引量:39
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作者 俞永强 张学洪 郭裕福 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第3期444-455,共12页
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelin... Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted. 展开更多
关键词 coupled GCM climate change OGCM
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神经网络模型预报湖北汛期降水量的应用研究 被引量:34
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作者 胡江林 张礼平 宇如聪 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第6期776-783,共8页
使用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省汛期 (6~ 8月 )总降水量的短期气候预测模型 ,该神经网络模型的输入是汛期前期 (2~ 4月 )的北半球月平均 5 0 0 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和太平洋海温场的扩展自然正交展开 (EEOF)的前几个主要模态... 使用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省汛期 (6~ 8月 )总降水量的短期气候预测模型 ,该神经网络模型的输入是汛期前期 (2~ 4月 )的北半球月平均 5 0 0 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和太平洋海温场的扩展自然正交展开 (EEOF)的前几个主要模态的时间系数 ,输出了湖北汛期降水场的自然正交展开 (EOF)的前 2个主要模态的时间系数。41 a历史资料的交叉检验表明 :样本试验的预报技巧评分平均为 0 .2 4 6 ,虽然该模型对各年的预报效果仍存在一定的不稳定性 。 展开更多
关键词 湖北 汛期 降水量 人工神经网络 短期气候预测 交叉检验 自然正交展开
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A new approach to the generation of initial perturbations for ensemble prediction:Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation 被引量:39
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作者 MU Mu JIANG ZhiNa 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第13期2062-2068,共7页
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the per... Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the perfect model assumption. SVs and CNOPs have been utilized to generate the initial pertur-bations for ensemble prediction experiments. The results are compared for forecast lengths of up to 14 d. It is found that the forecast skill of samples,in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP,is com-paratively higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range (day 6―day 14). This conclusion is valid under the condition that analysis error is a kind of fast-growing ones regardless of its magnitude,whose nonlinear growth is faster than that of SV in the later part of the forecast. Fur-thermore,similarity index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis are performed to explain the above numerical results. 展开更多
关键词 天气预报 非线性最佳干扰 技术性能 正交功能
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Nonlinear singular vectors and nonlinear singular values 被引量:37
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作者 穆穆 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2000年第4期375-385,共11页
A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. T... A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. The optimization problem related to the determination of nonlinear singular vectors and singular values is formulated. The general idea of this approach is demonstrated by a simple two-dimensional quasigeostrophic model in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences. The advantage and its applications of the new method to the predictability, ensemble forecast and finite-time nonlinear instability are discussed. This paper makes a necessary preparation for further theoretical and numerical investigations. 展开更多
关键词 SINGULAR VECTOR SINGULAR value NONLINEAR PREDICTABILITY ENSEMBLE forecast.
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Asymptotic solution for a class of sea-air oscillator model for El Nio-southern oscillation 被引量:39
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作者 莫嘉琪 林万涛 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第2期370-372,共3页
The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO... The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model. 展开更多
关键词 NONLINEAR perturbation method El Nin^o~Southern Oscillation Model
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Application of a Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme to the Moisture Equation in an E-grid Regional Forecast Model 被引量:37
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作者 宇如聪 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1995年第1期13-19,共7页
This paper presents a methodology which is very useful to design shape-preserving advection finite difference scheme on general E-grid horizontal arrangement of variables through introducing a two-step shape-preservi... This paper presents a methodology which is very useful to design shape-preserving advection finite difference scheme on general E-grid horizontal arrangement of variables through introducing a two-step shape-preserving positive definite advection scheme in the moisture equation of the LASG-REM (LASG regional E-grid eta-coordinate forecast model). By trial-forecasting six local heavy raincases, the efficiency of the shape-preserving advection scheme in practical application has been examined. The LASG-REM with the shape-preserving advection scheme has a good forecasting ability for local precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 Eta-coordinate E-grid Shape-preserving advection scheme
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非饱和流问题的数值模拟研究 被引量:31
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作者 谢正辉 曾庆存 +1 位作者 戴永久 王斌 《中国科学(D辑)》 CSCD 1998年第2期175-180,共6页
利用有限元方法 ,建立了非饱和土壤水流动的数值计算模型 ,用以模拟均质土壤 ,地下水埋藏很深且在不同的初始和边界条件下的水分运动 .对于入渗或蒸发问题 ,用通常的离散方法容易产生振荡非物理解 .我们采用有限元集中质量法 ,将质量矩... 利用有限元方法 ,建立了非饱和土壤水流动的数值计算模型 ,用以模拟均质土壤 ,地下水埋藏很深且在不同的初始和边界条件下的水分运动 .对于入渗或蒸发问题 ,用通常的离散方法容易产生振荡非物理解 .我们采用有限元集中质量法 ,将质量矩阵的非对角元集中到主对角元 ,避免了这种非物理解的产生 ,并且较好地处理了这类边界条件 . 展开更多
关键词 非饱和流 有限元 数值模拟 大气环流
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Large-Scale Circulation Features Typical of Wintertime Extensive and Persistent Low Temperature Events in China 被引量:38
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作者 BUEH Cholaw FU Xian-Yue XIE Zuo-Wei 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2011年第4期235-241,共7页
A pair of northeast-southwest-tilted mid-tropospheric ridges and troughs on the continental scale was observed to be the key circulation feature common among wintertime extensive and persistent low tempera-ture events... A pair of northeast-southwest-tilted mid-tropospheric ridges and troughs on the continental scale was observed to be the key circulation feature common among wintertime extensive and persistent low tempera-ture events (EPLTE) in China.During the persistence of such anomalous circulations,the split flow over the inner Asian continent and the influent flow over the southeast-ern coast of China correspond well to the expanded and amplified Siberian high with tightened sea level pressure gradients and hence,a strong,cold advection over south-eastern China.The western Pacific subtropical high tends to expand northward during the early stages of most EPLTEs. 展开更多
关键词 extensive and persistent low temperature event Siberian high tilted ridge and trough
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Longitudinal Displacement of the Subtropical High in the Western Pacific in Summer and its Influence 被引量:33
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作者 杨辉 孙淑清 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第6期921-933,共13页
Using the relative vorticity averaged over a certain area, a new index for measuring the longitudinal position of the subtropical high (SH) in the western Pacific is proposed to avoid the increasing trend of heights i... Using the relative vorticity averaged over a certain area, a new index for measuring the longitudinal position of the subtropical high (SH) in the western Pacific is proposed to avoid the increasing trend of heights in the previous indices based on geopotential height. The years of extreme westward and eastward extension of SH using the new index are in good agreement with those defined by height index. There exists a distinct difference in large-scale circulation between the eastward and westward extension of SH under the new definition, which includes not only the circulation in the middle latitudes but also the flow in the lower latitudes. It seems that when the SH extends far to the east (west), the summer monsoon in the South China Sea is stronger (weaker) and established earlier (later). In addition, there exists a good relationship between the longitudinal position of SH and the summer rainfall in China. A remarkable negative correlation area appears in the Changjiang River valley, indicating that when the SH extends westward (eastward), the precipitation in that region increases (decreases). A positive correlation region is found in South China, showing the decrease of rainfall when the SH extends westward. On the other hand, the rainfall is heavier when the SH retreats eastward. However, the anomalous longitudinal position of SH is not significantly related to the precipitation in North China. The calculation of correlation coefficients between the index of longitudinal position of SH and surface temperature in China shows that a large area of positive values, higher than 0.6 in the center, covers the whole of North China, even extending eastward to the Korean Peninsula and Japan Islands when using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to do the correlation calculation. This means that when the longitudinal position of the SH withdraws eastward in summer, the temperature over North China is higher. On the other hand, when it moves westward, the temperature there is lower. This could explain the phenomenon of the ser 展开更多
关键词 longitudinal position of subtropical high large-scale circulation RAINFALL TEMPERATURE
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非线性误差增长理论在大气可预报性中的应用 被引量:36
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作者 丁瑞强 李建平 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第2期241-249,共9页
为了能从非线性误差增长动力学的角度来研究大气的可预报性问题,在非线性动力系统的理论和方法基础上,文中引入了可预报性研究的新方法———非线性局部Lyapunov指数。非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量能够用来定量地确定混沌系统... 为了能从非线性误差增长动力学的角度来研究大气的可预报性问题,在非线性动力系统的理论和方法基础上,文中引入了可预报性研究的新方法———非线性局部Lyapunov指数。非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量能够用来定量地确定混沌系统可预报性的大小,真正地实现了对可预报性的定量化研究。首先给出了利用大气单个变量的实际观测资料获得其可预报期限估计的计算方法,因而解决了将非线性误差增长理论应用到大气实际的可预报性研究中的问题。然后,以位势高度场为例,详细讨论了逐日时间尺度上全球可预报性的时空分布,得到的主要结论为:(1)在水平方向上,全球位势高度场可预报性表现为一定的南北纬向带状分布,赤道地区和南极地区的可预报期限最长,可以达到两周左右;北极地区次之,可预报期限大约为9—12d;北半球中高纬度地区可预报期限相对较短,可预报期限大约为6—9d;而在南半球的中纬度地区最短,可预报期限仅为4—6d。此外,500hPa位势高度场可预报性分布随季节有明显变化,季节不同一些可预报期限的高值区和低值区所在的纬度和经度也会不同,总体来说,全球大部分地区的可预报性冬季都大于夏季,尤其在南极地区、热带印度洋以及北太平洋地区。(2)在垂直方向上,位势高度场可预报期限随高度升高而增加,可预报期限从对流层下层的两周以下增加到平流层下层的1个月左右,对流层和平流层天气尺度运动的可预报期限与其时间尺度是十分一致的。 展开更多
关键词 非线性 LYAPUNOV指数 可预报性 位势高度场
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