The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations,being 2.5°C higher than the 1961−90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean te...The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations,being 2.5°C higher than the 1961−90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature.This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture,plant phenology,electricity transmission systems,and human health.In this paper,the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using the newly homogenized observations and updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme events,as well as CanESM2(Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model)simulations.Results indicate that both anthropogenic influences and anomalous anticyclonic circulation played significant roles in increasing the probability of the 2018 hottest spring.Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold,while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold.The persistent anomalous anticyclonic circulation located on the north side of China blocked the air with lower temperature from high latitudes into eastern China.Without anthropogenic forcing or without the anomalous circulation in northern China,the occurrence probability of the extreme warm spring is significantly reduced.展开更多
In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center f...In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982-1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 E1 Nifio event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.展开更多
By using the long-term observed hydro-meteorological data (1985-2002) from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean System (TAO) during the international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) experiment, the key parameters...By using the long-term observed hydro-meteorological data (1985-2002) from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean System (TAO) during the international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) experiment, the key parameters of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), thermocline depth, surface sensible heat flux and latent heat flux, and the pseudo wind stress in the Westen Equatorial Ocean are calculated in this paper. On the basis of the calculation, the response of upper layer heat structure in the Westen Pacific Warm Pool to the mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its relation to the El Nio events are analyzed. The results show that within the MJO frequency band (42-108 d), the distributions of sea surface wind stress and upper ocean temperature have several spatial-temporal variation structures. Among these structures, the type-I surface pseudo wind stress field plays the role of inhibiting the eastward transport of ocean heat capacity, while the type-II strengthens the heat capacity spreading eastward. Therefore the type-II surface pseudo wind stress field is the characteristic wind field that provokes El Nio events. During calm periods (July-September) of the wind stress variations, the sensible and latent heat capacity fluxes change considerably, mostly in the region between 137°-140°E, while to the east of 150°E, the heat capacity flux changes less.\ In the mean MJO state, the type-I surface pseudo wind stress field structure dominates in the Western Pacific. This is why El Nio events can not occur every year. However, when the type-II and type-III surface pseudo wind stress field structures are dominant, an El Nio event is likely to occur. In this case, if the heat capacity of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is transported eastward and combined with the Equatorial Pacific heat capacity spreading eastward, El Nio events will soon occur.展开更多
A strong warm event happens during spring 1997 to spring 1999 in the South China Sea. Its intensity and duration show that it is the strongest event on the record over the past decades. It also corresponds with the se...A strong warm event happens during spring 1997 to spring 1999 in the South China Sea. Its intensity and duration show that it is the strongest event on the record over the past decades. It also corresponds with the severe flood over the valley of the Yangtze River and a couple of marine environmental events. This note addressed the evolution process by using several data sets, such as sea surface temperature, height and wind stress in addition to subsurface temperature. The onset of the warm event almost tele-connects with the El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Summer monsoon is stronger and winter monsoon is weaker in 1997 so that there are persistent westerly anomalies in the South China Sea. During the development phase, the warm advection caused by southerly anomalies is the major factor while the adjustment of the thermocline is not obvious. Subsequently, the southerly anomalies decay and even northerly anomalies appear in the summer of 1998 resulting from the weaker than normal summer展开更多
From the last deglaciation to the Holocene, the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2) δ 18O records as well as the records of ice-rafted debris on the surface of the North Atlantic have revealed a succession of sudden cooling e...From the last deglaciation to the Holocene, the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2) δ 18O records as well as the records of ice-rafted debris on the surface of the North Atlantic have revealed a succession of sudden cooling events on the centennial to millennial scales. However, the temperature proxy records are rarely studied systematically and directly to ensure that this air temperature cooling pattern simultaneously existed in the East Asian Region, in addition to the repeated pattern occurring in the Greater Atlantic Region. A peat cellulose δ 18O temperature proxy record proximately existing for 14000 years was picked up from the Hani peat in Jilin Province, China. It suggests by comparison that the sudden cooling events, such as the Older Dryas, Inter-Allerφd, Younger Dryas, and nine ice-rafted debris events of the North Atlantic, are almost entirely reiterated in the temperature signals of Hani peat cellulose δ 18O. These cooling events show that the repeatedly occurring temperature cooling pattern not only appeared in the North Atlantic Region in the high latitudes, but also in the Northwest Pacific Region in the middle latitudes. The climate change events marking the start of the Holocene Epoch, the Holocene Megathermal, the "8.2 kyr" event, the "4.2 kyr" event, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age are further discussed. The sensitivity response of Hani peat cellulose δ 18O to the land surface temperature and the reason for the age accuracy of peat cellulose 14C are also discussed based on the characteristics of the peat bog environment.展开更多
Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2002 and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the w...Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2002 and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the winter of 2002 is of the warmest in the recent 54 years in North Asia, which was caused by both decadal scale and interannual scale variability. The interannual variability is proved to be as the main cause for the event, and it is related to the global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, with the strongest of them in the Eastern Hemisphere and in the middle and high latitude region of the Southern Hemisphere.展开更多
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507702)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41775082)+3 种基金Y.SUN was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41790471)N.CHRISTIDIS and P.A.STOTT were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS,Defrathe UK−China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund,China.
文摘The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations,being 2.5°C higher than the 1961−90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature.This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture,plant phenology,electricity transmission systems,and human health.In this paper,the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using the newly homogenized observations and updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme events,as well as CanESM2(Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model)simulations.Results indicate that both anthropogenic influences and anomalous anticyclonic circulation played significant roles in increasing the probability of the 2018 hottest spring.Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold,while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold.The persistent anomalous anticyclonic circulation located on the north side of China blocked the air with lower temperature from high latitudes into eastern China.Without anthropogenic forcing or without the anomalous circulation in northern China,the occurrence probability of the extreme warm spring is significantly reduced.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875025, 40875030, 40775033, 40921160381)Shanghai Natural Science Foundation of China (08ZR1422900)Key Promotion Project of New Meteorology Technology of the China Meteorological Administration in 2009 (09A13)
文摘In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982-1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 E1 Nifio event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Developing Program(No.G1998040900,Part One)the Key Lab of Ocean Dynamic Processes and Satellite Oceanography(SOA).
文摘By using the long-term observed hydro-meteorological data (1985-2002) from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean System (TAO) during the international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) experiment, the key parameters of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), thermocline depth, surface sensible heat flux and latent heat flux, and the pseudo wind stress in the Westen Equatorial Ocean are calculated in this paper. On the basis of the calculation, the response of upper layer heat structure in the Westen Pacific Warm Pool to the mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its relation to the El Nio events are analyzed. The results show that within the MJO frequency band (42-108 d), the distributions of sea surface wind stress and upper ocean temperature have several spatial-temporal variation structures. Among these structures, the type-I surface pseudo wind stress field plays the role of inhibiting the eastward transport of ocean heat capacity, while the type-II strengthens the heat capacity spreading eastward. Therefore the type-II surface pseudo wind stress field is the characteristic wind field that provokes El Nio events. During calm periods (July-September) of the wind stress variations, the sensible and latent heat capacity fluxes change considerably, mostly in the region between 137°-140°E, while to the east of 150°E, the heat capacity flux changes less.\ In the mean MJO state, the type-I surface pseudo wind stress field structure dominates in the Western Pacific. This is why El Nio events can not occur every year. However, when the type-II and type-III surface pseudo wind stress field structures are dominant, an El Nio event is likely to occur. In this case, if the heat capacity of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is transported eastward and combined with the Equatorial Pacific heat capacity spreading eastward, El Nio events will soon occur.
基金This work was supported by the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-205)the Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant Nos. G1999043806 and 2001DIA50041) National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant N
文摘A strong warm event happens during spring 1997 to spring 1999 in the South China Sea. Its intensity and duration show that it is the strongest event on the record over the past decades. It also corresponds with the severe flood over the valley of the Yangtze River and a couple of marine environmental events. This note addressed the evolution process by using several data sets, such as sea surface temperature, height and wind stress in addition to subsurface temperature. The onset of the warm event almost tele-connects with the El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Summer monsoon is stronger and winter monsoon is weaker in 1997 so that there are persistent westerly anomalies in the South China Sea. During the development phase, the warm advection caused by southerly anomalies is the major factor while the adjustment of the thermocline is not obvious. Subsequently, the southerly anomalies decay and even northerly anomalies appear in the summer of 1998 resulting from the weaker than normal summer
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40573004, 40673069, 40231007)
文摘From the last deglaciation to the Holocene, the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2) δ 18O records as well as the records of ice-rafted debris on the surface of the North Atlantic have revealed a succession of sudden cooling events on the centennial to millennial scales. However, the temperature proxy records are rarely studied systematically and directly to ensure that this air temperature cooling pattern simultaneously existed in the East Asian Region, in addition to the repeated pattern occurring in the Greater Atlantic Region. A peat cellulose δ 18O temperature proxy record proximately existing for 14000 years was picked up from the Hani peat in Jilin Province, China. It suggests by comparison that the sudden cooling events, such as the Older Dryas, Inter-Allerφd, Younger Dryas, and nine ice-rafted debris events of the North Atlantic, are almost entirely reiterated in the temperature signals of Hani peat cellulose δ 18O. These cooling events show that the repeatedly occurring temperature cooling pattern not only appeared in the North Atlantic Region in the high latitudes, but also in the Northwest Pacific Region in the middle latitudes. The climate change events marking the start of the Holocene Epoch, the Holocene Megathermal, the "8.2 kyr" event, the "4.2 kyr" event, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age are further discussed. The sensitivity response of Hani peat cellulose δ 18O to the land surface temperature and the reason for the age accuracy of peat cellulose 14C are also discussed based on the characteristics of the peat bog environment.
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40125014)the National Key Basic Research Project(Grant No.G1998040905)the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-203).
文摘Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2002 and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the winter of 2002 is of the warmest in the recent 54 years in North Asia, which was caused by both decadal scale and interannual scale variability. The interannual variability is proved to be as the main cause for the event, and it is related to the global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, with the strongest of them in the Eastern Hemisphere and in the middle and high latitude region of the Southern Hemisphere.
