We build a model called SAICQD which is based on the classic model—SAIC to deal with the problems, including how to describe the force of virus, and how to predict the effect of vaccine or drug and how to make full l...We build a model called SAICQD which is based on the classic model—SAIC to deal with the problems, including how to describe the force of virus, and how to predict the effect of vaccine or drug and how to make full limited resource to overcome virus. Our model divides people into six groups, then through the relationships and characters of these groups and some limited conditions. We build some differential equations to predict the trend of these people, to figure out, under virus and medical treatment, what the fate of disaster area will be. This article take Ebola as study object.展开更多
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through or...Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.展开更多
文摘We build a model called SAICQD which is based on the classic model—SAIC to deal with the problems, including how to describe the force of virus, and how to predict the effect of vaccine or drug and how to make full limited resource to overcome virus. Our model divides people into six groups, then through the relationships and characters of these groups and some limited conditions. We build some differential equations to predict the trend of these people, to figure out, under virus and medical treatment, what the fate of disaster area will be. This article take Ebola as study object.
文摘Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.
