雷暴追踪矢量的准确性是决定短时临近降水外推预报效果的关键。以TREC(Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)为代表的区域追踪和以TITAN(Thunderstorm Identifiation, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting)为代表的单体追踪是追踪雷...雷暴追踪矢量的准确性是决定短时临近降水外推预报效果的关键。以TREC(Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)为代表的区域追踪和以TITAN(Thunderstorm Identifiation, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting)为代表的单体追踪是追踪雷暴移动矢量的两种典型方法。TREC基于追踪格点雷达回波数据得到,能较好体现层状云降水和对流云降水系统的区域总体移动趋势;TITAN可以识别、分析雷暴的二维和三维属性,自动跟踪雷暴的移动速度和方向,形成雷暴单体移动矢量,能够更好地刻画小尺度雷暴单体的移动速度和方向。将TREC和TITAN两种移动矢量进行融合,生成新的外推移动矢量,既保留了TREC方法在刻画大尺度雷暴总体移动趋势信息方面的特长,又能充分发挥TITAN方法在刻画小尺度雷暴运动细节信息上的优势。融合试验表明,采用TREC和TITAN两种降水移动矢量融合的新技术,可以一定程度改进降水外推移动矢量场估计的准确度,提升降水落区和强度外推预报的准确度,对改善北京地区降水临近预报水平具有一定正效果。展开更多
A heavy-rainfall event that occurred in North China during 19–20 July 2016,resulting in severe flooding,was investigated in this study.In this event,high-value total deformation overlapped the precipitation region,im...A heavy-rainfall event that occurred in North China during 19–20 July 2016,resulting in severe flooding,was investigated in this study.In this event,high-value total deformation overlapped the precipitation region,implying a close relationship between them.By deriving the nongeostrophicωequation in a non-uniformly saturated moist atmosphere,the relation between vertical velocity and deformation was diagnosed.The Q-vector divergence on the right-hand side of the newωequation was divided into three compositions,associated with horizontal divergence,vertical vorticity,and horizontal-wind deformation,respectively.It was found that the deformation component of Q-vector divergence contributed most to the negative Q-vector divergence in the precipitation region,implying an important role of deformation forcing in facilitating the vertical motion.In order to track the precipitation on the basis of deformation,potential deformation was proposed by virtue of the generalized potential temperature.The high-value potential deformation and precipitation were always overlapping,and shared an analogous temporal trend.This means that potential deformation can reflect the variation of heavy precipitation to a certain extent,and can serve as a tracker of the precipitation region.展开更多
This paper demonstrates that,for a moist baroclinic frontal system,the large-value deformation belt in the low-level atmosphere overlaps with precipitation.To precisely describe the relationship between deformation an...This paper demonstrates that,for a moist baroclinic frontal system,the large-value deformation belt in the low-level atmosphere overlaps with precipitation.To precisely describe the relationship between deformation and heavy precipitation,deformation is introduced into the nongeostrophic Q^#-vector.Q^#is then decomposed into three parts:the divergence-related term,the vorticity-related term,and the deformation-related term.By calculating the divergence of Q#and its components,it is found that in strong ascending areas within precipitation regions the nongeostrophic Q^#-vector divergence shows strong negative values.Its deformational component can contribute about 68%to these negative values.This verifies that strong deformation in a precipitating atmosphere is favorable for the development of convection and precipitation.In addition,by calculating the correlation coefficients between the Q^#-vector(including its components)divergence and vertical motions,it is also found that the Q^#-vector divergence shows higher correlation with vertical motion within the precipitation belt and lower correlation in the non-precipitation areas,which indicates a larger contribution of Q^#to vertical motion when precipitation occurs and implies an effect of Q^#to the precipitation distribution or spatial variability.Among the three components of the Q^#-vector,the correlation coefficients between the deformational component and vertical motion are the most similar in pattern to that of the correlation coefficients between the Q#-vector and vertical motion,which further reflects the important contribution of deformation to the large spatial variability of precipitation.展开更多
In this paper we introduce the convective vorticity vector and its application in the forecast and diagnosis of rainstorm.Convective vorticity vector is a parameter of vector field,different from scalar field,it conta...In this paper we introduce the convective vorticity vector and its application in the forecast and diagnosis of rainstorm.Convective vorticity vector is a parameter of vector field,different from scalar field,it contains more important information of physical quantities,so it could not be replaced.Considering the irresistible importance of vector field we will introduce the theory of vector field and its dynamic forecast method.With the convective vorticity vector and its vertical component's tendency equation,diagnostic analysis on the heavy-rainfall event caused by landfall typhoon“Morakot”in the year 2009 is conducted.The result shows that,the abnormal values of convective vorticity vector always changes with the development of the observed precipitation region,and their horizontal distribution is quite similar.Analysis reveals a certain correspondence between the convective vorticity vector and the observed 6-h accumulated surface rainfall,they are significantly related.The convective vorticity vector is capable of describing the typical vertical structure of dynamical and thermodynamic fields of precipitation system,so it is closely related to the occurrence and development of precipitation system and could have certain relation with the surface rainfall regions.展开更多
文摘雷暴追踪矢量的准确性是决定短时临近降水外推预报效果的关键。以TREC(Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)为代表的区域追踪和以TITAN(Thunderstorm Identifiation, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting)为代表的单体追踪是追踪雷暴移动矢量的两种典型方法。TREC基于追踪格点雷达回波数据得到,能较好体现层状云降水和对流云降水系统的区域总体移动趋势;TITAN可以识别、分析雷暴的二维和三维属性,自动跟踪雷暴的移动速度和方向,形成雷暴单体移动矢量,能够更好地刻画小尺度雷暴单体的移动速度和方向。将TREC和TITAN两种移动矢量进行融合,生成新的外推移动矢量,既保留了TREC方法在刻画大尺度雷暴总体移动趋势信息方面的特长,又能充分发挥TITAN方法在刻画小尺度雷暴运动细节信息上的优势。融合试验表明,采用TREC和TITAN两种降水移动矢量融合的新技术,可以一定程度改进降水外推移动矢量场估计的准确度,提升降水落区和强度外推预报的准确度,对改善北京地区降水临近预报水平具有一定正效果。
基金supported by the Strategic Pilot Science and Technology Special Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA17010105)the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare of the Ministry of Sciences and Technology(GYHY201406002)+2 种基金the Science and Technology Project of Guangzhou(201604020069)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505040,41575065,and 4177510)the Open Projects of the Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(PAEKL-2015-K2)
文摘A heavy-rainfall event that occurred in North China during 19–20 July 2016,resulting in severe flooding,was investigated in this study.In this event,high-value total deformation overlapped the precipitation region,implying a close relationship between them.By deriving the nongeostrophicωequation in a non-uniformly saturated moist atmosphere,the relation between vertical velocity and deformation was diagnosed.The Q-vector divergence on the right-hand side of the newωequation was divided into three compositions,associated with horizontal divergence,vertical vorticity,and horizontal-wind deformation,respectively.It was found that the deformation component of Q-vector divergence contributed most to the negative Q-vector divergence in the precipitation region,implying an important role of deformation forcing in facilitating the vertical motion.In order to track the precipitation on the basis of deformation,potential deformation was proposed by virtue of the generalized potential temperature.The high-value potential deformation and precipitation were always overlapping,and shared an analogous temporal trend.This means that potential deformation can reflect the variation of heavy precipitation to a certain extent,and can serve as a tracker of the precipitation region.
基金supported by the National Basic Key Research Program of China(Grant No.2015CB452804)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2015BAC03B04)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41505040,91437215,41575047,41575065,4177510)the Open Projects of the Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(Grant No.PAEKL-2015-K2)the Guangzhou Science and Technology Planning Project(201604020069)
文摘This paper demonstrates that,for a moist baroclinic frontal system,the large-value deformation belt in the low-level atmosphere overlaps with precipitation.To precisely describe the relationship between deformation and heavy precipitation,deformation is introduced into the nongeostrophic Q^#-vector.Q^#is then decomposed into three parts:the divergence-related term,the vorticity-related term,and the deformation-related term.By calculating the divergence of Q#and its components,it is found that in strong ascending areas within precipitation regions the nongeostrophic Q^#-vector divergence shows strong negative values.Its deformational component can contribute about 68%to these negative values.This verifies that strong deformation in a precipitating atmosphere is favorable for the development of convection and precipitation.In addition,by calculating the correlation coefficients between the Q^#-vector(including its components)divergence and vertical motions,it is also found that the Q^#-vector divergence shows higher correlation with vertical motion within the precipitation belt and lower correlation in the non-precipitation areas,which indicates a larger contribution of Q^#to vertical motion when precipitation occurs and implies an effect of Q^#to the precipitation distribution or spatial variability.Among the three components of the Q^#-vector,the correlation coefficients between the deformational component and vertical motion are the most similar in pattern to that of the correlation coefficients between the Q#-vector and vertical motion,which further reflects the important contribution of deformation to the large spatial variability of precipitation.
基金supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930972)the key special projects plan in key areas of Guangdong Province(2019B111101002)+2 种基金National Natural Sciences General Foundations of China(Grant Nos.41875056)China Meteorological Administration forecaster project(cmayby2019-143)the National Natural Science Foundation of China of China(Grant Nos.41405049).
文摘In this paper we introduce the convective vorticity vector and its application in the forecast and diagnosis of rainstorm.Convective vorticity vector is a parameter of vector field,different from scalar field,it contains more important information of physical quantities,so it could not be replaced.Considering the irresistible importance of vector field we will introduce the theory of vector field and its dynamic forecast method.With the convective vorticity vector and its vertical component's tendency equation,diagnostic analysis on the heavy-rainfall event caused by landfall typhoon“Morakot”in the year 2009 is conducted.The result shows that,the abnormal values of convective vorticity vector always changes with the development of the observed precipitation region,and their horizontal distribution is quite similar.Analysis reveals a certain correspondence between the convective vorticity vector and the observed 6-h accumulated surface rainfall,they are significantly related.The convective vorticity vector is capable of describing the typical vertical structure of dynamical and thermodynamic fields of precipitation system,so it is closely related to the occurrence and development of precipitation system and could have certain relation with the surface rainfall regions.
