In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus r...In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.展开更多
This paper mainly studies whether and how stock prices fluctuate around their intrinsic values.Based on data from 10 stock markets for the period between 2000 and 2018,we demonstrate that the relative price fluctuates...This paper mainly studies whether and how stock prices fluctuate around their intrinsic values.Based on data from 10 stock markets for the period between 2000 and 2018,we demonstrate that the relative price fluctuates around and approaches the intrinsic value in the long term.For the ten markets,the relative price crosses the intrinsic value on average once in 3~4 years.Profitability growth is a key factor in rising stock prices,but the level of valuations in the market has a regulatory effect to the growth of price in the future:For every 1%increase in valuation,the price tends to decline by 0.26%in the next year,0.74%in the next 3 years.展开更多
文摘In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.
文摘This paper mainly studies whether and how stock prices fluctuate around their intrinsic values.Based on data from 10 stock markets for the period between 2000 and 2018,we demonstrate that the relative price fluctuates around and approaches the intrinsic value in the long term.For the ten markets,the relative price crosses the intrinsic value on average once in 3~4 years.Profitability growth is a key factor in rising stock prices,but the level of valuations in the market has a regulatory effect to the growth of price in the future:For every 1%increase in valuation,the price tends to decline by 0.26%in the next year,0.74%in the next 3 years.
