为促进以风光为代表的分布式能源发电并网,集成风电、光伏发电、燃气轮机、储能系统和激励型需求响应为虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP),引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论和置信度方法描述VPP运行不确定性,以...为促进以风光为代表的分布式能源发电并网,集成风电、光伏发电、燃气轮机、储能系统和激励型需求响应为虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP),引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论和置信度方法描述VPP运行不确定性,以运营收益最大化为目标函数,建立VPP常规调度优化模型,确定VPP运行收益的门槛值。然后,应用CVaR理论描述VPP运行目标函数中不确定性因素,应用置信度方法转换含不确定性变量的约束条件,建立考虑运行风险的VPP随机调度优化模型。最后,选择改进IEEE 30节点系统作为仿真系统,结果表明:价格型需求响应能够平缓用电负荷曲线,储能系统和激励型需求响应能够增加VPP运营收益。VPP常规调度收益为9 550.19元,风光并网电量为12.49 MW×h,风险规避调度收益为8 995.34元,风光并网电量为11.31 MW×h,这意味着CVaR理论和置信度方法能够用于描述VPP运行风险,通过设置门槛值和置信度反映决策者风险态度,为决策者提供风险控制工具。展开更多
提高对可再生能源(renewable energy source,RES)的开发利用能力是发展综合能源系统面临的重要任务。为此,该文从源荷协同增效的角度,提出考虑需求侧响应不确定性下RES高效利用的能量枢纽(energy hub,EH)多目标区间规划方法。首先,在深...提高对可再生能源(renewable energy source,RES)的开发利用能力是发展综合能源系统面临的重要任务。为此,该文从源荷协同增效的角度,提出考虑需求侧响应不确定性下RES高效利用的能量枢纽(energy hub,EH)多目标区间规划方法。首先,在深入分析EH中各类负荷可调特性及其对RES消纳作用的基础上,建立用于描述用户负荷需求对实时能源价格响应及其不确定性的区间模型。鉴于系统经济性与环境效益之间存在的天然矛盾,分别以投资运行成本最小及RES利用率最大作为目标,构建EH规划的多目标区间优化模型。该模型通过对枢纽元件的容量配置以及需求侧管理策略综合考虑,并利用区间方法计及RES和需求响应两方面的不确定性,以实现对EH经济和环境效益同时优化。根据所建模型的特点,综合利用区间序关系和可能度法将其转化为确定性优化问题,然后采用改进的非支配排序遗传算法求解。算例分析结果表明,该文方法能够有效提高EH的经济性和对RES的利用效率,并可灵活满足不同的规划需求,因此具有更好的工程实用性。展开更多
It is now widely accepted that carbon emission from human activities is an important driving force in global warming, and global change has a deep impact on sustainable development of human society. To meet the challe...It is now widely accepted that carbon emission from human activities is an important driving force in global warming, and global change has a deep impact on sustainable development of human society. To meet the challenges of global change, the international community has reached a consensus that developed countries take strict actions in emission reduction, whereas developing countries take spontaneous efforts in reducing emissions under the guiding principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, with an agreed goal to restrict global surface temperature increase due to human activities to within 2℃ of pre-industrial levels. However, there is no clear pathway to reach this goal. A number of related questions must be addressed on principles to be followed, research emphasis and policy measures. Here we argue that response policies to address global change issues must be based on balanced development at regional and international levels, and on advancements in science and technology. This requires consideration of harmony not only between humans and nature but also within human societies, to properly deal with the relationship between global change and sustainable development. We must make equal efforts toward carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration, and toward mitigation and adaptation. There should be more research support to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of global change. Addressing the challenges of global change creates great opportunities for the development of human society. This will facilitate transformation of energy use structure, improve and restore ecological functioning of the earth environment, transform production modes and ways of living in human society, and promote harmonic and balanced development at regional and international levels.展开更多
文摘为促进以风光为代表的分布式能源发电并网,集成风电、光伏发电、燃气轮机、储能系统和激励型需求响应为虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP),引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论和置信度方法描述VPP运行不确定性,以运营收益最大化为目标函数,建立VPP常规调度优化模型,确定VPP运行收益的门槛值。然后,应用CVaR理论描述VPP运行目标函数中不确定性因素,应用置信度方法转换含不确定性变量的约束条件,建立考虑运行风险的VPP随机调度优化模型。最后,选择改进IEEE 30节点系统作为仿真系统,结果表明:价格型需求响应能够平缓用电负荷曲线,储能系统和激励型需求响应能够增加VPP运营收益。VPP常规调度收益为9 550.19元,风光并网电量为12.49 MW×h,风险规避调度收益为8 995.34元,风光并网电量为11.31 MW×h,这意味着CVaR理论和置信度方法能够用于描述VPP运行风险,通过设置门槛值和置信度反映决策者风险态度,为决策者提供风险控制工具。
文摘提高对可再生能源(renewable energy source,RES)的开发利用能力是发展综合能源系统面临的重要任务。为此,该文从源荷协同增效的角度,提出考虑需求侧响应不确定性下RES高效利用的能量枢纽(energy hub,EH)多目标区间规划方法。首先,在深入分析EH中各类负荷可调特性及其对RES消纳作用的基础上,建立用于描述用户负荷需求对实时能源价格响应及其不确定性的区间模型。鉴于系统经济性与环境效益之间存在的天然矛盾,分别以投资运行成本最小及RES利用率最大作为目标,构建EH规划的多目标区间优化模型。该模型通过对枢纽元件的容量配置以及需求侧管理策略综合考虑,并利用区间方法计及RES和需求响应两方面的不确定性,以实现对EH经济和环境效益同时优化。根据所建模型的特点,综合利用区间序关系和可能度法将其转化为确定性优化问题,然后采用改进的非支配排序遗传算法求解。算例分析结果表明,该文方法能够有效提高EH的经济性和对RES的利用效率,并可灵活满足不同的规划需求,因此具有更好的工程实用性。
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (2010CB530300)the National High-Tech R&D Program of China (2012AA12A407 and 2013AA122003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271099)
文摘It is now widely accepted that carbon emission from human activities is an important driving force in global warming, and global change has a deep impact on sustainable development of human society. To meet the challenges of global change, the international community has reached a consensus that developed countries take strict actions in emission reduction, whereas developing countries take spontaneous efforts in reducing emissions under the guiding principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, with an agreed goal to restrict global surface temperature increase due to human activities to within 2℃ of pre-industrial levels. However, there is no clear pathway to reach this goal. A number of related questions must be addressed on principles to be followed, research emphasis and policy measures. Here we argue that response policies to address global change issues must be based on balanced development at regional and international levels, and on advancements in science and technology. This requires consideration of harmony not only between humans and nature but also within human societies, to properly deal with the relationship between global change and sustainable development. We must make equal efforts toward carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration, and toward mitigation and adaptation. There should be more research support to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of global change. Addressing the challenges of global change creates great opportunities for the development of human society. This will facilitate transformation of energy use structure, improve and restore ecological functioning of the earth environment, transform production modes and ways of living in human society, and promote harmonic and balanced development at regional and international levels.
