We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an ope...We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.展开更多
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cy...Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.展开更多
The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthl...The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.展开更多
Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the var...Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.展开更多
To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150m...To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150mA redward of the line center to 150mA blueward, in steps of 10mA. With the technique of analytic inversion of Stokes profiles via nonlinear least-squares, we present the calibration coefficients for the HSOS vector magnetic magnetogram. We obtained the theoretical calibration error with linear expressions derived from the Unno-Becker equation under weak-field approximation.展开更多
太阳耀斑是最剧烈的太阳爆发之一,太阳耀斑能够在几分钟内对空间环境产生影响,为了更好地应对太阳耀斑爆发的空间环境效应,本文提出一种基于自动特征提取方法的太阳耀斑预报模型.该模型以太阳黑子的连续谱观测图像为输入,利用卷积神经...太阳耀斑是最剧烈的太阳爆发之一,太阳耀斑能够在几分钟内对空间环境产生影响,为了更好地应对太阳耀斑爆发的空间环境效应,本文提出一种基于自动特征提取方法的太阳耀斑预报模型.该模型以太阳黑子的连续谱观测图像为输入,利用卷积神经网络的自动图像特征提取能力,建立太阳耀斑预报模型.传统的以太阳黑子特征为输入的耀斑模型需要以黑子的McIntosh分型作为输入,黑子的McIntosh分型需要人为指定,效率低并且具有一定的主观性.通过实验比较,本文提出的耀斑预报模型比传统的以太阳黑子McIntosh分型为基础的预报模型具有更好的预报准确度.总之,本文提出的太阳耀斑预报模型能够自动提取太阳黑子图像的特征,具有更高的预报效率和准确率(在48 h M级耀斑预报中,基于深度学习方法的预报模型在耀斑报准率上比传统预报模型高3.7%,在非耀斑报准率上比传统预报模型高2.8%),是一种实用性较强的太阳耀斑预报模型.展开更多
1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. ...1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais obse展开更多
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo ...We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.展开更多
The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anticorrelated （r = -0.72） with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before （at lag -3） in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers d...The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anticorrelated （r = -0.72） with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before （at lag -3） in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.展开更多
Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accura...Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.展开更多
The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by...The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction： different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金This work is supported by National Nature Science Foundation Project No.4999-0451Space Environmental Prediction CenterCenter for Space Science and Applied Research, CAS, China.
文摘We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4999-0451 and 10073013) Space Environment Forecast Center, CSSAR, CAS.
文摘Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences through Grant KGCX3-SYW-403-10the NSFC through Grants 10733020 and 10673017the National Ministry of Science and Technology through Grant 2006CB806307
文摘The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.
基金Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150mA redward of the line center to 150mA blueward, in steps of 10mA. With the technique of analytic inversion of Stokes profiles via nonlinear least-squares, we present the calibration coefficients for the HSOS vector magnetic magnetogram. We obtained the theoretical calibration error with linear expressions derived from the Unno-Becker equation under weak-field approximation.
文摘太阳耀斑是最剧烈的太阳爆发之一,太阳耀斑能够在几分钟内对空间环境产生影响,为了更好地应对太阳耀斑爆发的空间环境效应,本文提出一种基于自动特征提取方法的太阳耀斑预报模型.该模型以太阳黑子的连续谱观测图像为输入,利用卷积神经网络的自动图像特征提取能力,建立太阳耀斑预报模型.传统的以太阳黑子特征为输入的耀斑模型需要以黑子的McIntosh分型作为输入,黑子的McIntosh分型需要人为指定,效率低并且具有一定的主观性.通过实验比较,本文提出的耀斑预报模型比传统的以太阳黑子McIntosh分型为基础的预报模型具有更好的预报准确度.总之,本文提出的太阳耀斑预报模型能够自动提取太阳黑子图像的特征,具有更高的预报效率和准确率(在48 h M级耀斑预报中,基于深度学习方法的预报模型在耀斑报准率上比传统预报模型高3.7%,在非耀斑报准率上比传统预报模型高2.8%),是一种实用性较强的太阳耀斑预报模型.
文摘1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais obse
基金support through the JC Bose Fellowship(project No.SR/S2/JCB-61/2009)
文摘We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anticorrelated （r = -0.72） with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before （at lag -3） in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.
文摘Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.
文摘The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction： different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.
