During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the powe...During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately,this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid.On the demand side,the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China(0.533 GW°C^(−1))than in the northern region(0.139 GW°C^(−1))due to the limited municipal heating system.On the supply side,the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed.In addition,a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8-10 January.Thus,the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event.As an effective adaptation measure,results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model.The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems.Thus,close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.展开更多
This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO)and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes,utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for E...This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO)and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes,utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).Typically,the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH),development of the cross-equatorial flow,and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature(SST)gradient.These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea(SCS).A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability,and vice versa.The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads(20 days)in advance(within 1–2 pentads)for more forceful(less vigorous)SCSSMO processes.On the other hand,the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad,and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes.Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO.These biases induce a weaker-thanobserved WNPSH as a Gill-type response,leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO.In addition,after the SCSSMO,remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS,thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.展开更多
在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以...在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以及改进后的最优概率阈值集合方法(deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold,DEFPT)对该区域次季节-季节降水的预测水平。评估结果表明:基于CMA-CPSv3预测系统的DEFPT方法可以提升天山北坡次季节-季节尺度1~5 mm阈值降水落区以及持续性的预测效果,优于传统集合平均预报和控制预报。从2016年7月29日—8月2日、2017年6月7—12日以及2020年7月8—12日时段发生在天山北坡的降水事件个例分析结果看,不论从降水落区、降水异常还是降水持续性,DEFPT集合预报在天山北坡西部和南部均有更好的效果,但在天山北坡东部和北部预测能力相对略低,这与该区域水汽的预报偏差增大有关。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025503)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0605604).
文摘During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately,this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid.On the demand side,the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China(0.533 GW°C^(−1))than in the northern region(0.139 GW°C^(−1))due to the limited municipal heating system.On the supply side,the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed.In addition,a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8-10 January.Thus,the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event.As an effective adaptation measure,results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model.The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems.Thus,close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.
基金jointly supported by the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101,41975074 and 42175023)+2 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100304)the Second Comprehensive Scientific Investigation on the Tibetan Plateau of China(2019QZKK0208)the Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(Grant No.2020B1212060025)。
文摘This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO)and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes,utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).Typically,the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH),development of the cross-equatorial flow,and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature(SST)gradient.These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea(SCS).A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability,and vice versa.The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads(20 days)in advance(within 1–2 pentads)for more forceful(less vigorous)SCSSMO processes.On the other hand,the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad,and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes.Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO.These biases induce a weaker-thanobserved WNPSH as a Gill-type response,leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO.In addition,after the SCSSMO,remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS,thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.
文摘在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以及改进后的最优概率阈值集合方法(deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold,DEFPT)对该区域次季节-季节降水的预测水平。评估结果表明:基于CMA-CPSv3预测系统的DEFPT方法可以提升天山北坡次季节-季节尺度1~5 mm阈值降水落区以及持续性的预测效果,优于传统集合平均预报和控制预报。从2016年7月29日—8月2日、2017年6月7—12日以及2020年7月8—12日时段发生在天山北坡的降水事件个例分析结果看,不论从降水落区、降水异常还是降水持续性,DEFPT集合预报在天山北坡西部和南部均有更好的效果,但在天山北坡东部和北部预测能力相对略低,这与该区域水汽的预报偏差增大有关。
