Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more f...Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.展开更多
信息时代网络赋能指挥控制(network enabled command and control,NEC2)的理念,是通过使联网作战兵力信息共享效益最大化,达到作战效能的最大化.通过分析NEC2信息布局应具有的属性要求,提出一种可实现的层次模式联合兵力指挥控制(comman...信息时代网络赋能指挥控制(network enabled command and control,NEC2)的理念,是通过使联网作战兵力信息共享效益最大化,达到作战效能的最大化.通过分析NEC2信息布局应具有的属性要求,提出一种可实现的层次模式联合兵力指挥控制(command and control,C2)连通结构,对其自适应C2特性进行分析,最后结合层次模式指挥控制连通结构信息交换示例,对信息标准交换和按需交换进行介绍,并论述了该连通结构的特性、优点和技术要求.展开更多
Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor...Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannot compensate for a saving-investment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflect international differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balanced between high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from 1950 to 1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country＇s dollar exchange rate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified case for China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.展开更多
在数字化信息校园的开发建设中,采用基于J2EE平台架构的设计模型,在统一信息标准、提供批量导入多种格式类型文件的基础之上,运用SOA(service-oriented architecture,面向服务架构)的ESB(enterprise service bus,企业服务总线)集成服务...在数字化信息校园的开发建设中,采用基于J2EE平台架构的设计模型,在统一信息标准、提供批量导入多种格式类型文件的基础之上,运用SOA(service-oriented architecture,面向服务架构)的ESB(enterprise service bus,企业服务总线)集成服务功能及面向组件的编程技术,设计并实现了基于高校综合信息管理的数字信息平台.该数据信息平台的使用,解决了学校内部各个应用子系统之间的信息交换和数据共享问题,提高了办公的效率和准确性.展开更多
Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at...Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.展开更多
Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuse...Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.展开更多
The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inw...The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.展开更多
A present monetary theory of the Great Depression has been explained as stemming from Milton Friedman,ignoring the previous Davanzati,a Florentine finding,in the 16th Century,an explanation solution to the increase of...A present monetary theory of the Great Depression has been explained as stemming from Milton Friedman,ignoring the previous Davanzati,a Florentine finding,in the 16th Century,an explanation solution to the increase of prices due to the arrival of Spanish silver from the New World.Designed to counter the Keynesian notion that the Depression resulted from instability theories,characterizing most modern capitalistic economies,Friedmans explanation identified lately the monetary trend as a disordered monetary policy,carried out by erroneous Federal Reserve Board interventions,possible after the Aldrich-Vreeland innovations,introducing Treasury money in the year 1908.More recent works about the Great Depression reconsider the attempts to restore the international gold standard,suppressed on the brink of World War I.We learnt that current views of the Depression,as analyzed in the 1920s by Ralph Hawtrey and Gustav Cassel,while recommending a gold standard reset,reflect that such standard risk deflations,unless the resulting increase in the international monetary demand linked to physical gold,could be satisfied.Although their early warnings of potential disaster became actual and their policy advice was consistently correct,their contributions were ignored and forgotten.The vanishing of their comments was firstly outlined not a long time ago,by Batchelder and Glasner What Ever Happened to Hawtrey and Cassel? (2013)This paper explores the possible reasons for the remarkable historical disregard of the Hawtrey-Cassel monetary explanation of the Great Depression,even by Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell in his 2000 historical Nobel reconsideration of the monetary 20th century(Mundell,2000).The paper stresses the identical historical conditions surfacing after the Bretton Woods agreements.Robert Triffin and Jacques Rueff comment likely warnings as in the first Great Depression,under the monetary policy illusion and the Central Banks excessive disregard of the basics of the quantitative theory on the long run,mostly ignor展开更多
文摘Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.
文摘信息时代网络赋能指挥控制(network enabled command and control,NEC2)的理念,是通过使联网作战兵力信息共享效益最大化,达到作战效能的最大化.通过分析NEC2信息布局应具有的属性要求,提出一种可实现的层次模式联合兵力指挥控制(command and control,C2)连通结构,对其自适应C2特性进行分析,最后结合层次模式指挥控制连通结构信息交换示例,对信息标准交换和按需交换进行介绍,并论述了该连通结构的特性、优点和技术要求.
文摘Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannot compensate for a saving-investment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflect international differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balanced between high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from 1950 to 1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country＇s dollar exchange rate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified case for China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.
文摘在数字化信息校园的开发建设中,采用基于J2EE平台架构的设计模型,在统一信息标准、提供批量导入多种格式类型文件的基础之上,运用SOA(service-oriented architecture,面向服务架构)的ESB(enterprise service bus,企业服务总线)集成服务功能及面向组件的编程技术,设计并实现了基于高校综合信息管理的数字信息平台.该数据信息平台的使用,解决了学校内部各个应用子系统之间的信息交换和数据共享问题,提高了办公的效率和准确性.
文摘Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.
文摘Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.
文摘The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.
文摘A present monetary theory of the Great Depression has been explained as stemming from Milton Friedman,ignoring the previous Davanzati,a Florentine finding,in the 16th Century,an explanation solution to the increase of prices due to the arrival of Spanish silver from the New World.Designed to counter the Keynesian notion that the Depression resulted from instability theories,characterizing most modern capitalistic economies,Friedmans explanation identified lately the monetary trend as a disordered monetary policy,carried out by erroneous Federal Reserve Board interventions,possible after the Aldrich-Vreeland innovations,introducing Treasury money in the year 1908.More recent works about the Great Depression reconsider the attempts to restore the international gold standard,suppressed on the brink of World War I.We learnt that current views of the Depression,as analyzed in the 1920s by Ralph Hawtrey and Gustav Cassel,while recommending a gold standard reset,reflect that such standard risk deflations,unless the resulting increase in the international monetary demand linked to physical gold,could be satisfied.Although their early warnings of potential disaster became actual and their policy advice was consistently correct,their contributions were ignored and forgotten.The vanishing of their comments was firstly outlined not a long time ago,by Batchelder and Glasner What Ever Happened to Hawtrey and Cassel? (2013)This paper explores the possible reasons for the remarkable historical disregard of the Hawtrey-Cassel monetary explanation of the Great Depression,even by Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell in his 2000 historical Nobel reconsideration of the monetary 20th century(Mundell,2000).The paper stresses the identical historical conditions surfacing after the Bretton Woods agreements.Robert Triffin and Jacques Rueff comment likely warnings as in the first Great Depression,under the monetary policy illusion and the Central Banks excessive disregard of the basics of the quantitative theory on the long run,mostly ignor
